Will he or won’t he? Our Week 7 Sunday Night Football bets hang in the balance; Brock Purdy (turf toe) is getting close to making his return for the San Francisco 49ers, but as we go to press, it remains up in the air whether Purdy will start their Week 7 matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. It could be Mac Jones again for the third straight week – and the fifth time this season.
While our Sunday Night Football picks would normally depend on the answer, the uncertainty surrounding Purdy’s status wasn’t enough for sportsbooks to circle this matchup on their Week 7 NFL odds board. Let’s find out why.
Best Bets for Falcons vs. 49ers
As a general rule, the betting public doesn’t do a good job with their NFL betting picks when evaluating backup players, especially quarterbacks. They’ll usually put too much stock in the starters and not enough in their replacements.
That’s what appears to be happening in San Francisco; Purdy (64.8 QBR last year) has yet to replicate the success he enjoyed in his breakthrough 2023 campaign, while Jones (66.9 QBR this year) leads the league this year at 313.0 passing yards per game through four starts.
Sunday Night Odds (SF -2.5)
With Jones playing like a reasonable facsimile of Purdy, the books had no problem opening San Francisco (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) as 3-point home faves on Sunday night’s NFL betting lines.
Then the sharps had no problem dumping big money on Atlanta (3-2 SU and ATS), enough to move them off the magic number 3; some books even have the Falcons at +1.5 as we go to press.
Want to compare lines or shop for better value across other matchups? Visit our NFL Odds page for every available spread, total, and moneyline this week.
Sunday Night Picks (SF -2.5)
We’re seeing at least some value on the Niners at this lower price, although we prefer them as small favorites on the moneyline. Fans are right to be concerned about Purdy’s health, but in the few glimpses we’ve seen of him this year, Purdy (78.8 QBR in two starts) has played closer to the level he did two years ago, when he made the Pro Bowl and finished fourth in MVP voting.
Meanwhile, bettors may have become overly enamored with a Falcons team that just spanked the Buffalo Bills (-4 away) 24-14 on Monday Night Football. The Bills may look like an elite team, but their run defense is allowing 0.08 Expected Points Added per rushing play, as per nfelo. Only Miami’s run defense has been worse at plus-0.15 EPA. Don’t expect Atlanta RB Bijan Robinson to have the same field day against the Niners (minus-0.08 EPA, No. 10 overall) that he did in Buffalo.Â
Take San Francisco for your top pick for this game, and check out our NFL Picks page for more betting predictions.
Expert Pick: 49ers (-130) at BetMGM
49ers’ TE George Kittle (To Score 2+ Touchdowns)
While both he and Purdy were limited in their return to practice on Wednesday, George Kittle looks very much like a candidate to play Sunday night for your player prop, in what would be his first game since injuring his hamstring during the season opener.
These are tricky injuries to handicap, but Kittle is a preternaturally gifted tight end; multiple projections we’re looking at show edges for Kittle as an Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220) as well as our featured 2+ TD wager. That edge peters out once you push Kittle to three or more tuddies (+15000).
Expert Pick: George Kittle to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+2200) at BetMGM
Place Your Sunday Night Football Props Now
Whether it’s Purdy or Jones slinging the rock, everything goes better with Kittle. Packaging all the above touchdown props with San Francisco -130 will help you get those bets through.
In addition to our featured Sunday Night Football bets, there are several other matchups on the Week 7 NFL odds board here at OddsTrader with tasty edges attached. Use our comprehensive sportsbook reviews to choose where you should do business, and bet accordingly.
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More Expert Picks
Check out Jefe Picks’ deep dive into this game below. And remember to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
