Super Bowl LIX Odds: Who Stops the Kansas City Three-Peat?

The 2024 NFL season is moving into December, meaning playoff standings and Super Bowl talk is about to ramp up even more. We started the season with the Kansas City Chiefs’ pursuit of a three-peat as the main story, and the Chiefs have mostly lived up to the hype with a 10-1 start and the current No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

But the Detroit Lions are 11-1 and have the best scoring differential in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills are 9-2 and have a win over the Chiefs, which could factor into home-field advantage in the playoffs. You also can’t write off past challengers like the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens, who are battling each other in Baltimore this Sunday in a big game. 

The Chiefs were the odds-on favorites (+500) to win Super Bowl LIX in the preseason. But they are no longer in that top spot. We looked at the current Super Bowl LIX odds from top-rated sportsbook Bet365 to see where things stand going into the first weekend of December, and we broke the teams down into tiers below. 

Super Bowl LIX Odds

*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

The Longshots Who Should Forget About 2024 (Odds +10000 or Longer) 

Out of 58 Super Bowl champions, none had a losing record at this point of the season. The only team who was even .500 was the 2011 New York Giants, who were 6-6, started 7-7, and still won their division with a 9-7 record. But given what we know about the improbability of their wins, that’s not a great model for any team in 2024 to follow. Plus, the Giants had Super Bowl experience with their core already winning a championship in 2007. 

For 2024, here are 15 teams with odds of +10000 or worse who should really forget about competing for Super Bowl LIX. In fact, it would be a surprise if any of these teams make the playoffs, and the New York Giants (2-10) are already the 1st team officially eliminated from playoff contention: 

• Cincinnati Bengals (+10000) 
• Miami Dolphins (+10000) 
• Los Angeles Rams (+10000) 
• Indianapolis Colts (+30000) 
• New Orleans Saints (+50000) 
• New York Jets (+75000) 
• Dallas Cowboys (+100000) 
• Tennessee Titans (+10000) 
• Chicago Bears (+100000) 
• Cleveland Browns (+10000) 
• Jacksonville Jaguars (+10000) 
• Las Vegas Raiders (+100000) 
• Carolina Panthers (+150000) 
• New England Patriots (+150000) 
• New York Giants (N/A; eliminated from playoffs) 

That’s almost half the league right there, so the battle for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft should at least be exciting.  

Technically, the Rams (5-6) are only a game back in the NFC West with half of their division games left, but they still have to play the Bills and go to San Francisco. They also haven’t looked consistent enough on either side of the ball to be a threat that would get past the wild-card round. 

The Dolphins (5-7) are still going to have a shot for the wild card, but can you really trust a team that’s likely lost its last 13 road games against playoff teams in Mike McDaniel’s tenure?  

If you were going to take any longshot here for fun, it would have to be the Bengals (+10000), because even at 4-7, they have been so much closer to a winning record than that record suggests. They just struggle to close out games, which has been a problem for years. But if they did sneak in as the No. 7 seed, teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens would likely not be pleased about that. 

But that’s the only team to even give slight consideration to, and they could easily end up at 4-8 after playing Pittsburgh this weekend. 

The Wild Card Weekend Hopefuls (Odds +3000 to +6500) 

Our next tier of Super Bowl LIX odds looks at 9 teams who have odds between +3000 and +6500. These are teams who have a good shot of making the playoffs, possibly even winning a division title, but their best outcome is likely a close loss in the divisional round. That’s assuming they even get past the wild card weekend game. 

• Los Angeles Chargers (+3000) 

• Houston Texans (+3300) 

• Denver Broncos (+5000) 

• San Francisco 49ers (+5000) 

• Arizona Cardinals (+6000) 

• Seattle Seahawks (+6000) 

• Washington Commanders (+6000) 

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6000) 

• Atlanta Falcons (+6500) 

AFC Outlook 

In the AFC, we’re likely looking at Houston (7-5) hanging on to win the AFC South for the No. 4 seed, which would make them vulnerable on wild card weekend against the likely AFC North runner-up (Ravens/Steelers) or AFC West runner-up (Chargers/Broncos). The Texans have already lost a game to Detroit despite intercepting Jared Goff 5 times, and they just lost to Will Levis and the Titans despite registering 8 sacks and a pick-six. C.J. Stroud has not taken the next step this year, they lost Stefon Diggs to a torn ACL, and they just don’t look like Super Bowl caliber this year. 

The Chargers and Broncos should make the playoffs, but the Broncos will have to hope Cincinnati drops more games, or else that Week 17 game in Cincinnati could be trouble. However, the Broncos could catch a break if the Chiefs have a chance to rest starters in Week 18 with the top seed locked up. 

But the Broncos have limitations with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix as no rookie has ever started a Super Bowl. Sean Payton also has been to just one Super Bowl in his career. The Chargers clearly lack the talent and experience at wide receiver to keep up with the elite AFC teams, and that was more evident than ever in their Monday night loss to the Ravens. 

It’s too hard to see the Chargers, Texans, or Broncos advancing past the divisional round this year. 

NFC Outlook 

It looks like the NFC South and NFC West will battle for the No. 4 seed as the weakest division winner, and neither division should get a wild card team. The NFC North has been fantastic, and the Vikings (9-2) and Packers (9-3) should be the top wild cards or even division champs if Detroit (11-1) slipped). 

That last wild card spot could go to Washington (7-5), but that team has been slipping for weeks with rookie Jayden Daniels not playing as well as he started the year, and the defense is not championship caliber. That team could slip out of the playoffs at this rate. 

Injury Concerns

The odds here still favor the pedigree of the 49ers despite the very real possibility they drop to 5-7 this Sunday night in Buffalo, a game where they still may not have Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa available. Injuries have just killed that team all year, so even if it does rally to win the NFC West again, it doesn’t feel like they’ll make it back to the Super Bowl this season. Time for a new NFC champion. 

The Cardinals have 5 games this season where they couldn’t score more than 17 points, so that team is very hard to trust. The Seahawks also have been really up and down on both sides of the ball. It doesn’t look logical for a Super Bowl run to come from either of those teams. 

In the NFC South, the Falcons have faltered in recent weeks, and Tampa Bay’s schedule is so favorable after being so ridiculously tough before the bye that it wouldn’t be a shock if the Buccaneers won the NFC South again. However, the winners of the NFC South and NFC West could just be fodder on wild card weekend for the likes of the Packers and Vikings. 

The Elite Eight (Odds +275 to +2800) 

Our final tier has the top 8 teams in Super Bowl LIX odds, ranging from +275 to +2800. You might say there’s a whole separate tier in here too, but let’s be honest about this season.  

The Lions just nearly lost to the Bears at home on Thanksgiving if not for one of the worst clock management failures in NFL history, and the Chiefs recently needed a 35-yard field goal blocked at home to escape Bo Nix and the Broncos in a 16-14 game. 

The league has too much parity and not enough juggernauts to act like anyone is just going to run away with this year’s Super Bowl. So, here are the top 8 teams in odds at bet365: 

• Detroit Lions (+275) 

• Kansas City Chiefs (+450) 

• Buffalo Bills (+650) 

• Baltimore Ravens (+650) 

• Philadelphia Eagles (+650) 

• Green Bay Packers (+1200) 

• Minnesota Vikings (+2000) 

• Pittsburgh Steelers (+2800) 

Let’s go through the strengths and weaknesses of each team. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2800) 

The Steelers just did the Mike Tomlin special where they defeated Baltimore as an underdog and lost in Cleveland as a favorite. This is why the team usually hovers a game over .500 and hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season.  

The combination of Russell Wilson’s deep balls, T.J. Watt’s timely splash plays, and a reliable kicker (Chris Boswell) could give the Steelers enough variance to pull off an upset or two in the playoffs. But their path would probably need to start with the Ravens or Texans, then they’d have to catch the Chiefs on a rusty day where they play poorly and the Steelers can squeeze out the win. Maybe Mahomes can have the flu again like he did the last time Wilson got an upset win over him in Denver. 

So far this year, the Steelers have already been carved up in losses by veterans like Joe Flacco, Dak Prescott, and Jameis Winston. With Pittsburgh’s lack of a consistent offense and the way the defense has allowed over 30 points in every playoff game since 2017, it gives one little confidence this team would step up and get past the likes of the Bills and Chiefs on the road in January.  

Minnesota Vikings (+2000) 

Head coach Kevin O’Connell already has a home loss in the playoffs to Daniel Jones and the 2022 Giants, so it’s not exactly a given he’ll work any magic in January. But the obvious flaw here is the expectation that Sam Darnold will implode with a multi-turnover game in the playoffs and the Vikings will fall short of the Super Bowl again. Think Case Keenum in the 2017 NFC Championship Game loss, and that might be the déjà vu for this team. But at least they can score and are familiar with playing the Lions. 

Green Bay Packers (+1200) 

The Packers have a lot of the right stuff to go on a deep playoff run this year after almost upsetting top-seeded San Francisco in the divisional round in 2023. They are a tougher team this year with a better running game with Josh Jacobs, and the defense has done a great job of forcing turnovers and sacks at opportune times. If they can do that in the playoffs against a slate of quarterbacks like Geno Smith/Brock Purdy, Kirk Cousins/Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, and Jalen Hurts, then they have a shot here. 

But it will also depend on whether or not Jordan Love can protect the ball in January. He threw a game-ending interception, shades of Brett Favre, in San Francisco. We have to see if that was the outlier or not, but he’s already thrown 11 picks this year too, so it’s not looking great on that front. 

But at least we know the Packers looked good against the Chiefs in a game in 2023 they won 27-19. It’s just hard when you have to win three road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl this year. 

Green Bay is the best value bet of any team with longer than +1000 odds. 

Philadelphia Eagles (+650) 

The Eagles are on a 7-game winning streak since the bye, but we’ll get a better sense of where this team stands after we see them in action against the Ravens and Steelers. The best team they beat during this win streak was a Washington team on a short week that looks like it’s on the decline and may not even make the playoffs.  

Philadelphia has a great offense with talented players at every level, and the defense is certainly improved from the 2023 unit that imploded a 10-1 start. But do we trust Jalen Hurts to not turn it over in the big games and to win a shootout in a place like Detroit? Maybe we’ll find out. But for now, Saquon Barkley is getting an MVP push and the team is getting better. 

Baltimore Ravens (+650) 

Everything was set up well for the Ravens a year ago with the top defense and home-field advantage. But they still found a way to lose 17-10 to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. This year, the Ravens are better on offense with Derrick Henry, but worse on defense, and they’ve already lost to every entity they lost to in 2023 right down to a team with Gardner Minshew at quarterback. 

Lamar Jackson has never stacked good playoff games, and he has multiple kryptonite in the Steelers and Chiefs, teams he would unlikely be able to both avoid in the playoffs based on current standings. 

But one thing we know is that if the Ravens can get to the Super Bowl, they’ll probably win it as Jackson is 23-1 against the NFC in his career. But navigating the AFC minefield is the issue, and even kicker Justin Tucker doesn’t look reliable this year. Baltimore’s offense-first approach may not be the right way to get them over the hump this season, especially if the Ravens don’t come back to win the AFC North. 

Buffalo Bills (+650) 

The Bills are having another strong season on the scoreboard, already beating the Chiefs by 9 points in a huge showdown, and they have smashed some of the teams you expected them to beat. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite and has limited his turnovers this year as he is not forcing the ball to any particular receiver after losing Stefon Diggs in the offseason. 

Buffalo is still reliable on defense too, and it’s likely the team won’t have to worry about traveling to Baltimore or Houston, the 2 road games that make up their only losses this season. The Bills will also get a good road test and potential Super Bowl preview in Week 15 when they face the Lions in Detroit. 

There’s no overwhelming flaw with the Bills right now. You just have concerns that they’ll find a way to come up short because that’s literally been the only ending to every Buffalo season in existence. 

But maybe this is their year. They beat Kansas City again, and let’s see how they look in Detroit in Week 15. If that’s a win too, and this team gets the No. 1 seed, you have to like Buffalo’s chances to win it all this year. Let the 4th time be the charm against the Chiefs in the playoffs.  

Kansas City Chiefs (+450) 

The Chiefs are 10-1 despite a tiny plus-52 scoring differential. Under normal circumstances, you’d be investigating this team as a fraud. But these are the Chiefs, the back-to-back champions, and they’ve done this for years with the run of close wins in the regular season and the postseason. 

But the margin for error has been very thin as both sides of the ball have dealt with injuries. Patrick Mahomes lost his top two wide receivers (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown) and is now trying to make it work with an aging veteran in DeAndre Hopkins and an inconsistent rookie in Xavier Worthy. Travis Kelce looks like he’s 35 these days and can’t play at a high level every week. Running back Isiah Pacheco hasn’t played since Week 2, so they dusted off Kareem Hunt like it was 2018 again. 

They’re making it work, but they’re doing it with the best third-down offense in the game, they have the fewest possessions every week, so one big mistake could easily cost them a game these days. That’s playing with fire for the playoffs, and the defense has played its 2 worst games since 2023 in Buffalo and Carolina in consecutive weeks. The defense doesn’t get takeaways and made Bryce Young look like a young star. 

A Boom-or-Bust Postseason Ahead?

This is starting to feel like an extreme postseason for the Chiefs where they’ll either cash in with three-peat glory or lose in the 1st playoff game at home. But until someone knocks them out in the playoffs, they are still the champs, and they have the best closer in the game in Mahomes, who already has a career-high 5 game-winning drives this season. 

If you’re trying to dethrone this team, you just have to hope they’ve blown through their wad of close wins before the playoffs. 

Detroit Lions (+275) 

The Lions have recently taken over as the favorite to win Super Bowl LIX. They are 11-1, haven’t lost since Week 2, have the highest scoring differential in the NFL (+180), a great offensive line, great running back duo, prolific No. 1 wideout, good tight end, and the defense has done very well even after star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson broke his leg in Week 6. Hutchinson could even return for the Super Bowl if the Lions get that far. 

Detroit is also leading the best division in the league with wins over the Vikings and Packers in hand already. They have been solid on special teams as well and have finally found a good kicker in Jake Bates, a position they couldn’t trust last season when they lost in the NFC Championship Game. 

Of course, the concern is Jared Goff having one of those multi-turnover days. But he somehow already threw 5 interceptions in Houston and won the game with 26 points anyway. You obviously can’t do that in the playoffs, but it’s looking like Detroit will probably be at home for those games again. 

Possible AFC Matchup Scenarios

It’s not so much the NFC playoffs that should trip up the Lions. Sure, the Eagles could always go in there and steal one in a title game in January. But the bigger concern should be with the actual Super Bowl itself against the winner of that AFC gauntlet. 

If it’s Baltimore, does it look like last season when the Ravens obliterated Detroit in one of the worst games of the Dan Campbell era? Again, Lamar Jackson is 23-1 against the NFC. Does Campbell get way too aggressive on 4th downs and cost his team the game on the biggest stage? Does Goff implode like he did in his 13-3 Super Bowl loss to the Patriots when he was with the Rams in 2018? 

If it’s Buffalo, well we will find out what that matchup looks like in Week 15. But the Bills are a team that can go toe-to-toe with a high-scoring offense, and they also will be aggressive on 4th downs. 

If it’s Kansas City, you have to give some great pause after what happened on Thanksgiving in Detroit. If the Chicago Bears, with a rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) and terrible coach (Matt Eberflus), can nearly pull off a 16-point comeback like that, what do you think Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid can do with the three-peat a quarter or a drive away? They’re not choking like that. 

Final Thoughts

At the end of the day, Detroit is the team to trust in the NFC this year, but it’s still too hard to go against the Chiefs with the three-peat as their goal. There are still big games (and more injuries) to come that will reshape this picture before the playoffs, but right now, it looks like a 4-way race between the Chiefs, Bills, Lions, and Eagles with a slight nod to the road upset paths for Green Bay and Baltimore. 

It should be fun to watch unfold. 

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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.