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Top 3 MLB Computer Picks for April 30: Chalkeater Party in Tampa

Drew Rasmussen Tampa Bay Rays Detroit Tigers
Drew Rasmussen 57 of the Tampa Bay Rays pitches against the Detroit Tigers on April 25 2023 Mike EhrmannGetty ImagesAFP

MLB Pick: Rays ML (-190) at BetRivers


Picks Summary:

  • Rays vs. White Sox – Rays ML (-190)
  • Diamondbacks vs. Rockies – Diamondbacks ML (-120)
  • Cardinals vs. Dodgers – Under 10 (-110)

The Tampa Bay Rays are so good, the MLB odds can’t keep up for Sunday’s game against the woeful Chicago White Sox.

Winning is contagious. We cashed in all three of Saturday’s computer-approved baseball picks, and we were so impressed, we’ve put one of those winning teams back in our line-up for Sunday’s slate. Let’s get right to it.


Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox

Sunday, April 30, 2023 – 02:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field


As expected, the Rays (22-5, plus-7.04 betting units) humbled the White Sox (7-20, minus-13.31 units) on Saturday, winning 12-3 as -135 road faves on the closing MLB lines. Tampa switched things up on us by using Calvin Faucher as an opener before handing the ball to Yonny Chirinos, who held Chicago to three hits and one run in 4.2 innings of work.

Imagine what they’ll do now that Drew Rasmussen (3.16 xFIP in 27.0 innings) is taking the mound. Rasmussen is a fourth-year stud with a cannon for a right arm; Tampa has only won three of his five starts, but the losses were to the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, by a combined score of 11-3.

The Rays should have considerably less trouble scoring against the remains of Mike Clevinger (6.30 xFIP), who clearly has yet to rebound since missing the entire 2021 season to Tommy John surgery. The OddsTrader computers have Tampa beating Chicago 5.6 runs to 3.2, a big-time beating that makes the Rays well worth eating the -190 chalk at BetRivers.

MLB Pick: Rays ML (-190) at BetRivers


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies

Sunday, April 30, 2023 – 03:10 PM EDT at Coors Field


Here’s a low-profile matchup with some betting value for the visitors. The computers at OddsTrader like Arizona to beat Colorado five runs to 4.4, making the Diamondbacks your quant-approved baseball pick as -120 road faves.

When you think about the National League West, you probably think about the Los Angeles Dodgers, or maybe one of the other California teams. But it’s the Snakes (15-12, plus-5.03 units) who lead the NL West at press time, and they’re the only team in the division that isn’t swimming in red ink right now.

Struggling to Hit

That includes the last-place Rockies at 8-19 (minus-6.27 units). They’re the worst-hitting team in the majors according to the FanGraphs WAR charts, and their starting pitching ranks No. 27 overall; Colorado’s only saving grace, fittingly enough, is their No. 9-ranked bullpen.

Austin Gomber (5.84 xFIP in 21.1 innings) is due up for the Rockies, getting yet another spot start while German Marquez (triceps) and Antonio Senzatela (knee) recover from their injuries. Gomber has a 1-4 team record for a loss of 2.29 units on the season, and current Diamondbacks have a combined 1.097 lifetime OPS off the fifth-year southpaw.

Arizona responds with Ryne Nelson (5.02 xFIP in 27.0 innings), a sophomore righty who also has a team record of 1-4 (minus-2.78 units). Nelson hasn’t been tagged as hard by the Rockies, though; only Jurickson Profar (3-for-6 with two doubles) has faced him in the big leagues.

The Diamondbacks are fairly mediocre at hitting (No. 16 in WAR), but their No. 28-ranked bullpen is their true weakness, so this isn’t the ideal spot for a big bet on Arizona – even if Colorado seems destined to finish well below .500 for the fifth year in a row.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-120) at SBK


St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, April 30, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium


Our final pick for Sunday is on the total, and since we’re at Chavez Ravine, the natural thing to do is bet the Under. There’s a total of 10 runs on the board at BetMGM for the game between the Cardinals (Under 14-12-1) and the Dodgers (Over 16-10-1); the OT computers have Los Angeles winning 5.5 runs to four.

These are two quality-hitting teams, with St. Louis ranking sixth on the WAR charts and L.A. at No. 10. But neither is particularly strong on the mound, and the Cardinals are putting their faith in fourth-year hurler Jake Woodford (4.68 xFIP in 24.2 innings) this Sunday. The Under is 3-2 in his five starts thus far.

Noah Syndergaard (4.36 xFIP in 26.0 innings), meanwhile, has the Over at 3-2 in his first tour of duty with the Dodgers. He might not be the formidable opponent he was with the New York Mets, where he made his only All-Star team in 2016, but at least Dodger Stadium isn’t an oven just yet, with temperatures around 70 degrees expected for the first pitch. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.

MLB Pick: Under 10 (-110) at BetMGM

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