At OddsTrader, we have access to a betting tool that can help us profit from our sports betting endeavors. This betting tool projects the score that a given game will finish with, in this way suggesting what our best bets should be.
These computer picks do not always succeed in predicting game results, so we have to know how to use them right in order to profit from them. Humans still play a necessary role in determining whether to bet on a given game, because we should still evaluate the merit of these computer projections by handicapping the NBA odds as we normally do.
Without further ado, let’s examine two games and see how our computer projections might help us be fully confident in our betting choices for both of these NBA games.
Picks Summary
- Kings vs. Suns: Under 233.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Warriors vs. Clippers: Warriors +8 (-110) at FanDuel
Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Footprint Center
Computer Projection
OddsTrader’s computer projects Phoenix to win tonight’s game by a score of 116-112.
This result would mean that the Suns cover the spread while the game stays under the posted total. Should we agree with this projection?
Phoenix’s Issues
Phoenix’s personnel-related issues make a play on the total attractive. The Suns are short-handed offensively because they dealt away two of their top scorers – forward Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson ranked third and fourth, respectively, on the team in points per game.
Among other things, they were high-volume shooters who were efficient from behind the arc. Without them, Phoenix becomes simpler and easier to defend. The Suns also simply lack starting-caliber scoring quality.
Suns’ Defense Remains Strong
The Suns still do have quality defenders alongside the perimeter. Three-point defense is especially important against a Kings’ offense that more than almost every team, enjoys attempting three-pointers.
Among other name-worthy guys, Torrey Craig is starting for Phoenix. He has garnered a reputation throughout his career as a good perimeter defender. Craig reliably steps up to fill out this role. For example, when he was a Nugget and teammate Gary Harris went down, Craig was able to fill in for Harris by executing well as a perimeter defender.
With the likes of Craig, Phoenix has the personnel to limit what Sacramento most wants to do offensively, although the likes of Craig also has a limited offensive ceiling and will thus help also on offense to keep tonight’s game lower-scoring.
NCAAB Pick: Under 233.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tuesday, February 14, 2023 – 10:00 PM EST at Crypto.com Arena
Computer Projection
OddsTrader’s computers project a five-point Clippers win, 120-115.
According to this projection, the Warriors will cover the spread and the “over” will hit.
Missing Guards
Given tonight’s injuries or general personnel-related situation for both teams, I find the “over” unlikely. The Clippers just dealt away key guards Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, and John Wall. These are all valuable scorers who are difficult to replace right away.
While L.A. is still actively looking for reinforcements, guards Bones Hyland and Eric Gordon are reportedly available to play tonight. But they will need time to develop chemistry together, and this need limits their offensive ceiling.
Golden State’s offensive ceiling is similarly capped by the absence of Stephen Curry and the potential absence of fellow star guard Klay Thompson. But the Warriors still have versatile scorers in Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo, who are capably productive on offense and who, given their versatility, match up well against this Clippers’ defense.
While this game should stay lower-scoring, I do agree with the projected Warriors’ cover and, for our NBA picks, recommend investing in Golden State.
NCAAB Pick: Warriors +8 (-110) at FanDuel
