UFC 289 Best Bets:
The UFC returns to the Great White North, as Canadian fans are gifted with a highly stacked pay-per-view card this weekend, and we’re supplementing your betting needs.
Two-division Brazilian legend Amanda Nunes will defend her crown in the main event versus Irene Aldana, and fellow Brazilian Charles Oliveira looks for his path back to the title in the co-main when he clashes with top-ranked lightweight Beneil Dariush.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 289 main and co-main events.
UFC 289 Women’s Bantamweight Championship Bout
Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 11:55 PM EDT at Rogers Arena
In professional mixed martial arts, one women’s legend stands tall above the rest: the current bantamweight and featherweight titleholder Amanda Nunes (22-5-0 pro-MMA). She’s lost just 1 of her past 14 UFC contests, and these bouts were notably fought versus elite competitors of both divisions.
Irene Aldana (14-6-0) has ultimately been gifted a title opportunity by default, as Nunes has already defeated the No.1, 2, and 3-ranked fighters in the bantamweight division. With Julianna Pena’s withdrawal, the Mexican striker has an opportunity to become the fourth champion from her region. Still, she’s never faced a fighter with Nunes’ elite skill set and is a considerable underdog for good reasons.
Nunes vs. Aldana: Fight Tape Analysis
The best opportunity for Aldana to find success is in the striking realm. Her kickboxing combinations, power, and precise delivery are why she’s riding a two-fight win streak via KO/TKO. However, that’s easier said than done when faced with the power of Nunes.
We once gave a similar path to victory for Cris Cyborg, Holm, and Germaine de Randamie, and nobody expected the striking skills of Nunes to outweigh these veteran MMA strikers. But they did, and since, it’s never been simple to overlook the striking prowess of the champ-champ, who’s won 59% of her 21 career fights via KO/TKO.
UFC 289 Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Nunes as the betting favorite, but because of her recent loss to Pena, we aren’t dealing with a ridiculous price tag. That said, the -300 range is still an overwhelming amount of juice for some, so we must look into the prop department to boost our odds.
Nunes to win by KO/TKO or decision at -190 feels like an acceptable piece of value. Aldana has proved her worth against jiu-jitsu specialists and has never been stopped inside the distance. I expect a mistake in underestimating Nunes’ power on the feet to cost Aldana or a five-round war in favor of the champ having her hand raised.
UFC 289 Best Bet Supporting Trends
- Nunes is a two-division champion with a 14-1 record in her last 15 bouts.
- Aldana is 7-4 in the UFC and has fought in just 1 five-round bout.
- Aldana lost to Holly Holm & Raquel Pennington, 2 fighters Nunes defeated via KO/TKO.
UFC Pick: Amanda Nunes by KO or Decision (-190) at Bet365 [1.90u returns 1u profit]
UFC 289 Lightweight Co-Main Event
Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 11:25 PM EDT at Rogers Arena
Brazil’s most prized lightweight competitor of recent years returns, and Charles Oliveira (33-9-0 pro-MMA) may have recently surrendered his crown to Islam Makhachev, but this doesn’t reflect negatively on the 11-fight win streak he was riding previously.
Unfortunately for the Brazilian, his weekend opposition, Beneil Dariush (22-4-0), is a top-five ranked competitor who hasn’t yet received his shot at gold and has been undefeated since 2018 behind an 8-fight win streak.
Oliveira vs. Dariush: Fight Tape Analysis
It’s never easy fading Oliveira; he always seems to have a trick up his sleeve. Whether it’s underrated KO/TKO power or a sneaky submission, I’ll raise my hand and admit I expected him to lose against Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and Tony Ferguson in some of his recent contests.
However, despite those impressive wins that led him to become champion, he’s been on wobbly legs and barely escaped stoppage losses in all those contests and his bout against Michael Chandler.
The difference between those who’ve recently lost to Oliveira and Dariush is the elite-level wrestling that’s been at the forefront of his success. And if you’re worried about Oliveira’s BJJ, it’s important to note that Dariush has overcome a 3rd-degree black belt in Diego Ferreira and has lost just 1 of his 26 pro-career bouts by this method.
UFC 289 Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have Dariush as the betting favorite, and I completely agree. The offensive wrestling and heavy top control will be the difference maker, and once fatigue sets in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finish this fight inside the distance.
UFC 289 Best Bet Supporting Trends
- Dariush is riding an 8-fight win streak, with 5 of those bouts ending inside the distance.
- Oliveira was outclassed by a strong wrestler in Makhachev last time out.
- Dariush owns a similar level of wrestling offense to Makhachev.
UFC Pick: Beneil Dariush ML (-150) at Caesars Sportsbook [1.50u returns 1u profit]