The UFC travels down under this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a fight card stacked with Oceania talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 293 preliminary.
Picks Summary
- Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO or Submission (-140) at Bet365
- Gabriel Miranda (+140) with Caesars Sportsbook
Carlos Ulberg vs. Da Woon Jung
UFC 293 Light Heavyweight Bout
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 09:25 PM EDT at Qudos Bank Arena
Following a promotion debut loss, Carlos Ulberg (8-1-0 pro-MMA) has wasted no time putting his name on the map. He’s now riding a 4-fight win streak since February 2022, and in proving his offensive striking dominance, three of those bouts ended via KO/TKO.
Da Woon Jung (15-4-0) began his UFC tenure with a respectable four-fight win streak. However, his previous two visits to the octagon resulted in lopsided defeats, and questions on his ability to compete with the promotion’s elite have arisen.
Ulberg vs. Da Woon Jung: Fight Tape Analysis
With a decorated kickboxing background in his repertoire, there shouldn’t be a single light heavyweight competitor that wants to stand and exchange strikes with Ulberg.
Unfortunately for Da Woon Jung, Ulberg is loaded with excellent takedown defense that’s assisted him in keeping past bouts where he wants… on the feet!
Speed and power have been too much for Ulberg’s opponents to date, and we should expect similar attributes to favor him this weekend. Jung will need a grappling game plan to overcome the City Kickboxing star, but I don’t believe he owns good enough timing for his takedown entries to match the striking speed of Ulberg.
UFC 293 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Ulberg a significant betting favorite, and I completely agree with the price.
That said, it doesn’t necessarily mean we have to pay the juice, especially when dealing with such a powerful striker.
73% of Ulberg’s career victories have come by way of knockout, and for a much more respectable price of -140, taking the New Zealander to win inside the distance is an excellent prop bet to get behind.
UFC Pick: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO or Submission (-140) [1.40u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Shane Young vs. Gabriel Miranda
UFC 293 Featherweight Bout
Saturday, September 9, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Qudos Bank Arena
Riding a three-fight losing streak, Shane Young (13-7-0) will be hoping to snap his current win/loss trend in front of a home crowd. But that’s easier said than done when he’s looked incredibly lackluster lately.
Gabriel Miranda (16-6-0) was dominated in his UFC debut last time out. However, the loss has aged well, as it was up a weight class (lightweight) against Benoit Saint-Denis – who’s been on a tear through the division.
Young vs. Miranda: Fight Tape Analysis
On a fight card created to favor the Oceania-born fighters, I expect Shane Young to be one of the natives at risk of losing. He doesn’t do enough during fights to give the judges a reason to side with him.
Most concerningly, Young looks lost whenever he’s taken down, and Miranda is undoubtedly a jiu-jitsu guy. And even in striking exchanges, an awkward style from the Brazilian makes him seem active compared to his opponent.
It will only take one takedown per round for Miranda to steal this bout. Let’s continue the fade on Young, who’ll likely be cut from the UFC should he come short this weekend.
UFC 293 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC prices at OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks have placed Miranda as a +140 underdog, which is likely based on his UFC experience, or a lack thereof. While I don’t believe he’s a top contender of the future, I expect Young to be a winnable fight, specifically if grappling situations surface.
UFC Pick: Gabriel Miranda (+140) [1u returns 1.45u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook
