The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to pay-per-view, with Australia of the Oceania continent playing host to this weekend’s octagon festivities.
Kai Kara-France, Steve Erceg, Jingliang Li, and Carlos Prates are involved in two elite-level main card bouts, and I’m seeing some noteworthy betting value up for grabs at the top US sportsbooks.
On that note, let’s waste no time and get straight to business as I present you with my favorite UFC 305 main card analysis and predictions.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg and Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya bouts.
Picks Summary
- Erceg by Submission or Decision (-125)
- Li-Prates Under 2.5 Rounds (-165)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Kai Kara-France vs. Steve Erceg
UFC 305 Flyweight Co-Main Event Bout
Saturday, August 17, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at RAC Arena
Kai Kara-France
After five years with 11 octagon appearances added to his resume, Kai Kara-France is a staple in the UFC flyweight division, as he held onto a top-10 ranking for some time.
Sure, a 7-4 UFC record isn’t perfect, but all but one of his losses to date came against former champions or title contenders, and a recent split decent loss to Amir Albazi arguably should’ve gone the other way.
- Kara-France Pro MMA Record: 24-11-0
- Kara-France KOs: 11
- Kara-France Submissions: 3
Steve Erceg
Much like his weekend opponent, Australian native Steve Erceg received his chance at gold and faltered. However, achieving a title opportunity in his fourth UFC fight was shocking. It turns out that Erceg was worthy. He may have lost the bout, but ultimately, we were put on notice that his talents are here to stay, and his in-cage talents are more than capable of climbing back into the title picture.
- Erceg Pro MMA Record: 12-2-0
- Erceg KOs: 2
- Erceg Submissions: 6
Kara-France vs. Erceg: Skill Set Analysis
How many people could enter into their fourth UFC fight with the current 125lb champion Alexandre Pantoja and find success? Not many! But Erceg entered the final championship round at level pegging and displayed a diverse skillset. If it weren’t for one bad judgment of deciding to grapple with Pantoja in the fifth round, he’d be the champion right now.
Kara-France is a precision striker with the power to put you out. Sadly for him, his power has landed less often than he’d like, and although he’s mixed in grappling occasionally, he hasn’t been strong enough in all facets of MMA to cross the finish line to a championship level.
Kara-France won’t break Erceg’s takedown defense and strength, so he’ll be forced into a striking exchange. He also won’t break this man’s durability, suggesting a 15-minute battle is likely on the cards for the Kiwi fighter.
In contrast, don’t be shocked if Erceg can lock up a submission. He’s large for the flyweight division and will bully many smaller guys like Kai. Couple this with a slick ground game, and I can see a rear-naked sinking in.
UFC 305 Main Card Odds & Prediction
You can take Erceg down; Pantoja has done it a dozen times. What’s wrong with that picture? You cannot keep him down! Kai isn’t a heavy grappler, so don’t expect this, but as a complete martial artist with all the outlying factors such as size and durability, this is Erceg’s fight to lose.
UFC Pick: Erceg by Submission or Decision (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Li Jingliang vs. Carlos Prates
UFC 305 Welterweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, August 17, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at RAC Arena
Li Jingliang
Ten years of service in the UFC Octagon and 17 fights later, “The Leech,” Li Jingliang has earned the respect of many, and when it comes to power punching at 170lbs, no one quite does it like this Chinese brute.
Unfortunately, Jingliang has been sidelined for nearly two years. He was arguably robbed of a split-decision win in his last outing versus Daniel Rodriguez, and 23 months on, post-major back surgery, we wonder if the Jingliang of old will be present.
- Jingliang Pro MMA Record: 19-8-0
- Jingliang KOs: 10
- Jingliang Submissions: 4
Carlos Prates
Brazil’s Carlos Prates is a fresh face to the welterweight division, but obviously, he’s impressed the UFC brass so much that he’s bumped onto a pay-per-view main card in just his third fight.
Aged 30 with 25 pro-MMA bouts on his record, Prates is no prospect; ask the eight fighters he’s knocked out consecutively since 2021. That said, he’s unproven versus elite opponents, and Saturday’s clash will be the toughest test of his career.
- Prates Pro MMA Record: 19-6-0
- Prates KOs: 14
- Prates Submissions: 3
UFC 305 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds at the top sportsbooks place Prates as a -355 favorite. To me, this pricing is insane! While the Brazilian has been undefeated since 2019, with many knockout wins in MMA and kickboxing, he’s a low-volume striker who relies on that power… What happens when the kill shot doesn’t land?
Jingliang will be Prates’s most experienced and powerful opponent thus far. 73% of his UFC wins came by knockout, and recent opponents who held respected durability, such as Muslim Salikhov and Santiago Ponzinibbio, were flatlined by the Chinese fighter.
I do have concerns about Jingliang’s layoff. At this price, a healthy ‘Leech’ would be the side all day, but we don’t know how much the injury has affected him. Instead, I’m willing to wager on the obvious: power.
Both men present an unruly amount of punching power. Jingliang will have the volume and pressure, while Prate’s calm and relaxed approach could deliver a counterblow to end this fight in the blink of an eye.
There’s a high chance this fight doesn’t go the distance, and with the under 2½ rounds sitting at a reasonable price of -165, I’ll take it.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
