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UFC London Aspinall vs. Tybura Best Bets

Marcin Tybura of Poland UFC 278
Marcin Tybura of Poland L fights Alexandr Romanov of Moldova R in a heavyweight bout during UFC 278 Alex GoodlettGetty ImagesAFP

Mixed martial arts action returns to British soil this weekend as heavyweight sluggers Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura headline UFC London at the O2 Arena.

Fan favorite Molly McCann looks to return to the win column when she squares off with Julija Stoliarenko in the co-main event.

Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC London main and co-main event.

Top UFC London Picks

  • Aspinall vs. Tybura Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) at Bet365
  • McCann vs. Stoliarenko Under 2.5 Rounds (-140 at Bet365

Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura

UFC London Heavyweight Main Event Bout

Saturday, July 22, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT at O2 Arena


Following a one-year layoff after a freak knee injury that resulted in Tom Aspinall’s (12-3-0 pro-MMA) first UFC loss, the pride of British mixed martial arts returns to the octagon this weekend with the pleasure of receiving a home advantage, he’s thrived with in the past.

Aspinall’s weekend opposition, Marcin Tybura (24-7-0), is an experienced opponent with an 11-6 UFC record. However, he’s undoubtedly a drop-down in the level of competition the Brit was previously facing, and the current -500 moneyline betting odds represent this sentiment.

Aspinall vs. Tybura: Fight Tape Analysis

Striking precision, speed, finishing ability, and a well-rounded grappling offense/defense favor Aspinall. The main concern in backing the juiced moneyline would be the injury he’s returning from.

Could Aspinall’s leg give out? Sure. Is it likely? No. He’s had a long layoff, thus ensuring bettors that he’s at 100% fitness and ready to continue the journey he was on.

Prior to his injury versus Curtis Blaydes, Aspinall was 5-0 in the UFC with a 100% finish rate (3 KO/TKOs, 2 submissions). He’s dominated opponents such as Alexander Volkov whom his weekend opponent has lost too. MMA math isn’t a viable betting strategy, but it undoubtedly displays the talent discrepancy in this scenario.

Speed, pace, and movement will be the downside of Tybura’s chance of victory. Aged 37, he’s slowing down, and although he’s won 4 of his previous 5 bouts, he’s been incredibly slow in these contests, and the level of competition isn’t comparable to Saturday’s matchup.

UFC London Main Event Odds & Prediction

The UFC pricing with OddsTraders’ top sportsbooks shows Aspinall with an 80% implied probability of success. This is too high to wager on the Aspinall moneyline, but it’s even more probable that this bout won’t reach the third round.

Fifty percent of Tybura’s UFC defeats were suffered by KO/TKO, and Aspinall has finished all five of his UFC victories inside the first six minutes (Under 1.5). Again, we aren’t receiving a great number, but -190 on the under 1.5 rounds is significantly better than backing the hometown favorite at -500.

UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-190) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365


Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko

UFC London Women’s Flyweight Co-Main Event Bout

Saturday, July 22, 2023 – 09:05 PM EDT at O2 Arena


Much like Tom Aspinall’s return fight, it feels like UFC matchmaking is heavily favored towards “Meatball” Molly McCann (12-3-0) at UFC London this weekend.

Alongside Paddy Pimblett, McCann has been the perfect marketing tool for the UFC’s presence within British borders. Still, after two consecutive spinning elbow KO/TKOs, a rise in the level of competition faced saw her dominated by Erin Blanchfield via round 1 Kimura.

With a 1-5 UFC record, including a recent TKO loss to Chelsea Chandler, Julija Stoliarenko (10-7-1) is seemingly a gift matchup for Meatball, as the Brit faces a lower-level competitor that’s on the brink of losing her position with on the UFC roster.

McCann vs. Stoliarenko: Fight Tape Analysis

With a low fight IQ and a limited skillset involving nothing more than a dangerous submission threat, Stoliarenko has displayed an armbar or bust style during her pro career, with 90% of career victories obtained through armbar submissions.

We’ve previously witnessed McCann tested in grappling situations, including the recent Kimura loss and a rear naked choke defeat to Gillian Robertson. But she’s undoubtedly the more well-rounded fighter and will own a significant advantage on the feet.

Instead of backing the juice on Meatball, the under 2.5 rounds display value of -140. Whether it’s a McCann TKO or a Stoliarenko submission, it’s difficult to envision this fight going the distance.

UFC London Co-Main Event Odds & Prediction

The current odds have placed McCann as a huge betting favorite, but the over/under market is what we’re attacking this week.

Three of McCann’s and Stoliarenko’s previous five UFC bouts ended inside the distance. With two obvious paths to victory in this bout, we predict a KO/TKO or submission stoppage will surface again for these ladies on Saturday.

UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-140) [1.4u returns 1u profit] at Bet365


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