Following a painful ten-year absence, the UFC finally returns to the Bluegrass State this weekend, with a 14-fight event lined up for Louisville, Kentucky’s MMA enthusiasts.
Two main card bangers involving top prospects Raul Rosas Jr., Ricky Turcios, and Brunno Ferreira hold some great value from a total standpoint, and I’m back to share my betting perspective.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Louisville main card schedule.
Picks Summary
- Ferreira-Stoltzfus Under 1.5 Rounds (-145)
- Rosas Jr.-Turcios Over 2.5 Rounds (-145)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios
UFC Louisville Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 08, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
Raul Rosas Jr.
When Raul Rosas Jr. made his UFC debut as a teenager and submitted Jay Perrin via a first-round rear naked choke, he generated a level of hype. However, a brash and cocky personality soon backfired when an unsuspecting Christian Rodriguez, a significant betting underdog, humbled the youngster in his second outing.
Rosas Jr. probably hasn’t learned much from the defeat, as he’s looked as arrogant as always, especially after his return victory last September with a KO/TKO over Terrence Mitchell. That said, he’s got talent, and who knows what the future may hold for this Mexican up-and-comer.
- Rosas Jr. Pro MMA Record: 8-1
- Rosas Jr. KOs: 2
- Rosas Jr. Submissions: 5
Ricky Turcios
Despite his lower-ranked position at 135 pounds, Ricky Turcios will undoubtedly be the grittiest and most experienced foe of Rosas Jr. to date. As an Ultimate Fighter winner, we’ve watched him shine in high-intensity battles, especially against opponents who ‘bring the heat,’ or so to say.
- Turcios Pro MMA Record: 12-3-0
- Turcios KOs: 3
- Turcios Submissions: 1
Rosas Jr. vs. Turcios: Fight Tape Analysis
Aged 19, with his only two victories coming against an incredibly low tier of opposition, it isn’t easy to gauge where Rosas Jr’s ceiling starts and ends. We know he’s been relentless in the early stages of his past pro bouts, but it’s only going to take a defensively-minded grappler to stop the early onslaught, and that’s precisely what we could be looking at with Turcios.
Turcios, as a BJJ black belt, isn’t going to fall victim to Rosas Jr’s strengths, and in 14 professional fights to date, only one opponent has managed to stop him inside the distance. Despite his flaws, Turcios is durable as hell, scrambles out of dangerous ground positions well, and has previously displayed an ability to cause heavy grappling/wrestling-style fighters a problem.
While this could be another fade spot on “El Problema Nina,” I prefer to back the toughness of two young and hungry bantamweights equally capable of forcing this fight into the later rounds.
UFC Louisville Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTraders top-rated sportsbooks believe Rosas Jr. is worthy of a -225 price tag; I personally think it’s ludicrous.
However, with only one loss via submission or KO/TKO across both fighters’ combined records of 20-4-0, they’ve both shown defensive attributes, strong wills, and a dog inside of them that should force this contest to the judge’s scorecards. Take the over and avoid backing an outright market with too many unanswered questions.
UFC Pick: Rosas Jr.-Turcios Over 2.5 Rounds (-145) [1.45u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Brunno Ferreira vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
UFC Louisville Middleweight Main Card Bout
Saturday, June 08, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at the KFC Yum! Center
Brunno Ferreira
Nicknamed “The Hulk,” don’t be surprised when you watch the fight tape on Brunno Ferreira and realize why he could be a legitimate Marvel Avenger.
Brunno, in all eleven of his pro-MMA victories to date, has dispatched the opposition in at least five minutes and 12 seconds, most recently flatlining fellow heavy hitter Phil Hawes with a sniper-like straight right down the pipe followed by some vicious ground and pound for good measure.
The man is a problem… To say the least.
- Ferreira Pro MMA Record: 11-1-0
- Ferreira KOs: 8
- Ferreira Submissions: 3
Dustin Stoltzfus
Hands up if you gave Dustin Stoltzfus no chance of beating Punahele Soriano last December (Hand raised). Well, as a +260 underdog, not only did the 32-year-old from Pennsylvania silence his critics (Me), but he did so in style with a second-round rear naked choke.
Out of this victory, however, Stoltzfus is 2-4 as a UFC middleweight, and it would seem the promotion is using him as a stepping stone for up-and-coming names.
Does Stoltzfus prove us wrong again, or will he truly live up to the +200 price tag this time around?
- Stoltzfus Pro MMA Record: 15-5-0
- Stoltzfus KOs: 2
- Stoltzfus Submissions: 6
Ferreira vs. Stoltzfus: Fight Tape Analysis
We have to give credit where it’s due, and Stoltzfus is the worst fighter we’ve seen at middleweight, despite the ugly UFC record he holds. He’s displayed a technically sound skill set, and while this has positioned him in the losing column more often than not, the wrestling gameplan against Soriano worked perfectly, and he should be credited.
However, and this is a huge but… Ferreira isn’t simply a big puncher, although the majority of his MMA successes have been due to the power he owns; he displayed some smooth clinch work against Hawes last time out and threw some nasty leg kicks when at range.
This contest would seemingly position an extremely athletic, well-rounded fighter in Ferreira, who isn’t likely going to give Stoltzfus the takedowns he requires for success. That said, we haven’t seen the Brazilian test by a strong grappler, so never say never.
UFC Louisville Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed the total at 1.5 rounds, and if you’re backing Ferreira outright at -265, you should take the value on the total for -145 because we know he likes to get in and out of the office early.
In all eleven of Ferreira’s pro bouts, he’s never gone past 1.5 rounds, and his lone UFC loss also ended inside the first. MMA math isn’t the driving factor, though; this man is a finisher with the skills behind speed and power that can stop Stoltzfus on the feet early, much like Abus Magomedov did two fights back.
UFC Pick: Ferreira-Stoltzfus Under 1.5 Rounds (-145) [1.45u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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