The UFC travels to the Bluegrass State this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Kentucky fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Louisville preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Radtke/Prates Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
- Andrea Lee ML (-160)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Charlie Radtke vs. Carlos Prates
UFC Louisville Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 08, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
Charlie Radtke
Former lightweight competitor Charlie Radtke clearly found the stumbling block preventing his success early on because, as a welterweight competitor, he’s 6-0, including a KO/TKO win over Gilbert Urbina as a +165 underdog earlier this year.
However, at 5-foot-9-inches tall, how much longer can the American overcome most 170lb opponents, some of whom are coming into the cage above 6-foot, much like his weekend opponent?
- Radtke Pro Record: 9-3-0
- Radtke KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Radtke Submission Wins: 2
Carlos Prates
Carlos Prates, on paper, seems like a force to be reckoned with. He collected his UFC debut win over an experienced Trevin Giles in early 2024, and sixteen of his pro career wins came by KO/TKO(13) or submission (3).
Unfortunately, Prates’ style doesn’t present a go-getter in the octagon. Sure, a patient counter-striking ability has done him justice thus far, but what will happen if the power he owns doesn’t translate to a KO/TKO win?
- Prates Pro Record: 18-6-0
- Prates KO/TKO Wins: 13
- Prates Submission Wins: 3
Radtke vs. Prates: Fight Tape Analysis
As previously mentioned, Prates prefers to strike, and his Muay Thai background has done him justice thus far. At any moment of a fight, he can put his opponent’s lights out, but as seen before he finished Giles last time out, he isn’t as proficient at scoring points as he is at knocking opponents out.
Radtke has the skills to force a grappling scenario, and this would raise his chance of cashing significantly, as we know he’s a legitimate blackbelt who can offensively wrestle well.
That said, there have been too many past fights where Radtke has thrown caution to the wind; he’s the opposite of Prates, where he’ll be aggressive, and the left hook he put Urbina to sleep with proves his ability to finish the fight in multiple areas.
UFC Louisville Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Prates a significant betting favorite, but this isn’t a comfortable position when the underdog truly has more paths to victory.
Instead of playing with fire on the outright market, backing this fight to end under the total of 2.5 rounds feels like a supportable wagering position.
Whether Prates can land the kill shot he’s renowned for, or whether Radtke can shock the world once again, both fighters are proven finishers and I like one of these prospects to find the stoppage on Saturday.
UFC Pick: Under 2.5 Rounds (-175) [1.75u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Under 2 ½ Rounds: Supporting UFC Louisville Trends
- 5 of Radtke’s previous 7 pro-MMA bouts ended within the first two rounds.
- Radtke has 9 career wins, and 6 of those bouts ended via KO/TKO or submission.
- Prates has gone the distance in just 3 of his 24 pro-MMA bouts.
- Prates has won 7 consecutive fights via KO/TKO.
Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa II
UFC Louisville Women’s Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, June 08, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
Andrea Lee
It’s the rematch that nobody asked for, but with two of the ugliest records in the women’s flyweight division, Andrea Lee and Montana De Losa will go to war for a second time during their careers in what could certainly be a loser leave-home bout.
Lee, however, already has a unanimous victory over her weekend opponent. To be quite frank, a lot hasn’t changed in their respective skill sets since that 2019 clash. While “KGB” looks to snap a four-fight losing skid, the competition level is dropping to make a win achievable.
- Lee Pro Record: 13-9-0
- Lee KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Lee Submission Wins: 5
De La Rosa, with three straight losses, is 5-7 as a UFC competitor, but an upside for her weekend rematch is that she’s six years Lee’s junior. Unlike the previous meeting, she’ll need to stay clear of striking exchanges, but whether she can achieve this or not is an entirely different story.
- De La Rosa Pro Record: 12-9-1
- De La Rosa KO/TKO Wins: 1
- De La Rosa Submission Wins: 8
Lee vs. De La Rosa: Fight Tape Analysis
Lee’s four-fight losing streak isn’t pretty, but this cannot be blamed on the fading of her skill set or the fact that she’s getting up there in age. The fact is that she’s been fighting some of the best girls in the division. This four-bout losing skid involves strong opponents with a combined pro record of 48-15-0.
If we’re using the first fight between De La Rosa and Lee as a measuring stick, the latter attempted to implement a wrestling game plan, but despite landing five takedowns, she couldn’t keep the fight grounded. When Lee returned to her feet, it was a completely lopsided affair, as the striking differential was close to 90% in favor of “KGB.”
De La Rosa hasn’t impressed whatsoever since her first loss to Lee, and considering she’s a competitor who was once known for her wrestling pedigree, she’s seemingly forgotten about what brought her to the dance, with a complacency in striking on the feet that’s continued to be her downfall.
UFC Louisville Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Lee a slight favorite at -150, but if this rematch took place directly after the first bout, I believe we’d be looking at a price closer to -300.
Rematches rarely present the same outcome via the same methods, but we know De La Rosa cannot keep Lee grounded, and this will lead to another kickboxing battle that will be a one-sided affair.
UFC Pick: Andrea Lee ML (-160) [1.60u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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