The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to the octagon with an absolute banger of a fight card!
Eryk Anders, Christian Leroy Duncan, Steve Erceg, and Ode Osbourne are involved in two main card slug fests, and I’m seeing some serious betting value up for grabs at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review).
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into my favorite UFC Vegas 109 main card analysis and predictions.
UFC Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 9, 2025 – 04:00 PM EDT
- Location: UFC Apex
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez (UFC Middleweight Bout)
Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
UFC Middleweight Main Card Bout
Eryk Anders Fight Profile: Veteran Grit and Recent Resurgence
He might be edging closer to retirement with each fight, aged 38, but “Ya Boi” Eryk Anders is riding a two-fight win streak following a pretty dreadful run between 2021 and 2023. He’s a veteran of the game with an ability to mix the arts, and most notably, a durability that’s never seen him lose by KO/TKO outside of a retirement on the stool earlier in his career.
- Anders Pro MMA Record: 17-8
- Anders KOs: 10
- Anders Submissions: 1
Christian Leroy Fight Profile: Rising Striker with Potential
Is Christian Leroy Duncan the man capable of handing Anders a knockout loss? Winning 8 of his 11 pro bouts via KO/TKO might suggest so.
The Englishman is a precision striker who thrives on volume over power. And while he’s young in his UFC career, a positive 4-2 record keeps him on an upward trajectory.
- Duncan Pro MMA Record: 11-2
- Duncan KOs: 8
- Duncan Submissions: 1
Anders vs. Duncan: Fight Tape Analysis
Duncan isn’t the type of fighter who will throw caution to the wind and hunt for a stoppage.
The majority of his previous knockout wins have arrived following cumulative damage. While we should expect his higher striking output, size, and youth advantage to give him the striking edge, it’s difficult to put confidence in him cracking the respectable chin of Anders.
Furthermore, I wouldn’t be shocked if Anders could steal a round via grappling.
While he doesn’t mind throwing a bomb on the feet, and is even arguably the stronger power puncher of the two, he’ll also realize that grappling exchanges could be his path to victory, albeit a game plan that I don’t envision him being able to keep up for 15 minutes.
UFC Vegas 109 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with our top-rated sportsbooks places Duncan as the betting favorite, and we’re going to chop that juice with the expectation that this fight will go the distance.
Duncan’s speed, size, and technically sound striking offense will give him the advantage here. While Anders might make this one closer than we expect, Ya Boi won’t have enough output or damage to stop this significantly younger opponent from taking at least two of the three rounds.
Steve Erceg vs. Ode Osbourne
UFC Bantamweight Main Card Bout
Steve Erceg Fight Profile: Primed for a Much-Needed Bounce Back
Australia’s Steve Erceg went from a 3-0 record competing against middle-of-the-pack opposition to fighting the world’s best (Alexandre Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and Brandon Moreno). He should’ve never received a title opportunity after just three UFC appearances. As a result, his schedule following this loss was incredibly difficult and resulted in a three-fight losing skid.
The UFC has seen the light and finally handed Erceg a level of competition where he can potentially shine. This should be the perfect bounce-back spot, but what dangers does he need to avoid this Saturday?
- Erceg Pro MMA Record: 12-4
- Erceg KOs: 2
- Erceg Submissions: 6
Ode Osbourne Fight Profile: Power Puncher Looking to Defy the Odds
Ode ‘The Jamaican Sensation’ Osbourne has heat in those hands, as evidenced by the three UFC wins, KO/TKO wins.
Unfortunately for him, well-rounded opponents who can mix the arts, specifically grappling, have consistently troubled him. With a 5-6 UFC record, oddsmakers have little faith in his ability to end Erceg’s losing streak this weekend.
- Osbourne Pro MMA Record: 13-8
- Osbourne KOs: 5
- Osbourne Submissions: 5
Erceg vs. Osbourne: Fight Tape Analysis
Having fought champions, former champions, or title contenders in his last three bouts, including two five-rounders, and the fact that he was cutting a lot of weight to make 125lbs, Erceg should now be able to breathe as a bantamweight against an opponent that possesses half as many threats as what he’s seen of late.
Osbourne will be the longer man in terms of reach, and his knockout power is always a problem, but outside of these factors, what else can really trouble the Aussie?
I believe Erceg will remind us of why the UFC previously had faith in him competing against the world’s best.
Even with the more accurate striking and greater defense, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Erceg incorporate plenty of grappling to wear Osbourne down. As we’ve seen in the past, this might not bode well for the dog, and with 5 of his 6 UFC losses coming by knockout or submission, can we really argue against Erceg being able to accomplish the same?
UFC Vegas 109 Main Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Erceg as the betting favorite. Still, with an opponent that’s crumbled so many times in the past versus less threatening foes, we can have the confidence that the favorite can find a finish here.
It’s been a while since he’s done so, but Erceg catching a submission in round two or three is a viable outcome. Osbourne is lost on his back, and with an opponent that’s skilled in all areas against a knockout-or-bust kind of fighter, give me the latter to find a late stoppage.
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