The UFC returns to Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an Apex fight card stacked with up-and-coming talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 88 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Jafel Filho ML (-160)
- Chelsea Chandler ML (+110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jafel Filho vs. Ode Osbourne
UFC Vegas 88 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Jafel Filho
With five consecutive wins and a 100% finish rate during that stretch, including a third-round TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series, the UFC couldn’t deny Jafel Filho a position on the flyweight roster.
Fluidity and strength in grounded positions are where he excels, and despite losing to a top-ranked Muhammad Mokaev in his promotional debut, the Brazilian bounced back emphatically via a round one arm triangle choke over Daniel Barez last time out.
- Filho Pro Record: 15-3-0
- Filho KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Filho Submission Wins: 9
Ode Osbourne
Ode Osbourne has struggled for consistency since his UFC debut in 2020. With a 4-4 UFC record, he’s been a 50/50-coin flip thus far, and unfortunately for him, his victories to date have been against relatively unknown and inexperienced opponents.
- Osbourne Pro Record: 12-6-0
- Osbourne KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Osbourne Submission Wins: 5
Filho vs. Osbourne: Fight Tape Analysis
Huge red flags are waving for Osbourne in this bout, as we’ve watched him, even in victory, allow himself to get into compromised positions on the ground. He’s a dangerous southpaw, sure, and he’ll undoubtedly be the greater striker of the two; however, should this fight hit the ground, he will struggle seriously defensively.
Filho will attack submissions at some point during this fight, and he’s so talented in this area that his BJJ deficiencies for Osbourne present a clear and easy path to victory.
UFC Vegas 88 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Filho a slight betting favorite. While Osbourne is unquestionably a threat on the feet, it’s difficult to ignore the superior grappler who can also handle himself on the feet.
Filho has never been knocked out during his professional career, and 125-pound knockouts are also a rarity. When you combine this with the fact that he’s elite on the ground and Osbourne has made numerous grappling mistakes in the past, there’s only one side to place on our betting tickets this weekend.
Filho ML: Supporting UFC Vegas 88 Facts
- Filho owns a 93% finish rate from 18 pro bouts.
- Osbourne has lost 50% of his UFC bouts to date (4-4).
- Filho has won 6 of his last 7 bouts inside the distance.
- 83% of Osbourne’s career losses were by submission or KO/TKO.
UFC Pick: Filho ML (-160) [1.60u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Josiane Nunes vs. Chelsea Chandler
UFC Vegas 88 Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, March 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Josiane Nunes
With her first three UFC fights in the bag, Josiane Nunes has maintained a perfect record (3-0), and now, an overall pro record of 10-1-0 could give bettors a slight illusion when hitting up the betting lines.
This woman can bang; there’s no denying this, but unfortunately, her skillset is very limited, and fortunately for her, the opposition she’s faced to date has been incredibly low-tier.
- Nunes Pro Record: 10-1-0
- Nunes KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Nunes Submission Wins: 0
Chelsea Chandler
Chelsea Chandler, a former featherweight competitor, must now make the cut to bantamweight because her previous division, at the UFC level, is fading out. Losing to Norma Dumont last time out holds no shame, but a bounce-back could be in order as her strength and size advantages as a former 145-pounder may favor her moving forward.
- Chandler Pro Record: 5-2-0
- Chandler KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Chandler Submission Wins: 1
Nunes vs. Chandler: Fight Tape Analysis
Throw the overhand left and hope it lands. This has been Nunes’ game plan throughout her career, and sooner rather than later, she’ll get fraud-checked with her seemingly impressive but padded 10-1-0 record.
Chandler is no world-beater, but she undoubtedly presents the most dangers Nunes has seen during her pro career thus far. One huge discrepancy is the size differential, as a 5 foot 2 inch Nunes will struggle to land her beloved overhand versus a 5 foot 8 inch Chandler.
Nunes’ offense is one-dimensional, and Chandler, who’ll tower over her and look two weight classes bigger, will only need to avoid one attack. Takedowns and control is a simple path to victory for the American, and after watching Ramona Pascual achieve this against Nunes, I have no doubt it can be replicated by a larger and more talented wrestler in Chandler.
UFC Vegas 88 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds make Nunes a betting favorite, but we’ll start our fraud-checking venture with the Brazilian this weekend.
Nunes is so small and limited in skills that I struggle to envision a path to victory with such a readable style unless a bad weight cut for Chandler assists her. The left hand is dangerous and could land and ruin our night, but I’ll take my chances on the much larger lady who has one attack to avoid.
Chandler: Supporting UFC Vegas 88 Facts
- Nunes has a padded record.
- Chandler is 6 inches taller.
- Nunes struggled to defend takedowns against a low-level Ramona Pascual.
- Nunes spams overhand lefts.
UFC Pick: Chandler ML (+110) [1u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
