The UFC is back in Sin City this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Vegas fight card stacked with some veteran and some up-and-coming talent.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 96 preliminary card bouts.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice, where our expert covered two bouts from the main card: Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci and Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho.
Picks Summary
- Medina-Reese Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
- Borshchev & Over 1.5 Rounds (+110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jose Medina vs. Zach Reese
UFC Vegas 96 Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Zach Reese
Zach Reese entered the UFC with all the hype, and a -230 favorite quickly turned into a meme when Cody Brundage slammed him for a TKO win as the underdog.
The bounce back was, however, beautiful, and Reese made quick work of Julian Marquez in 20 seconds to reestablish himself as a serious middleweight prospect. Will he continue to display a high ceiling this weekend? The bookmakers believe so, as he’ll enter as one of the biggest UFC Vegas 96 favorites.
- Reese Pro Record: 7-1-0
- Reese KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Reese Submission Wins: 2
Jose Medina
Jose Medina is one of the rare Dana White’s Contender Series competitors who received a UFC contract despite losing. Most MMA fans remain baffled as to why Medina is on the roster, and the only conclusion I came to is that the promotion needs a Bolivian athlete to extend their reach.
Before his DWCS appearances, Medina held a 10-2 record, but with one glance at the competition levels, you’ll understand why he was able to succeed. Now, with a drop from light heavyweight to 185lbs, does he have anything to offer that we should take note of?
- Medina Pro Record: 11-3-0
- Medina KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Medina Submission Wins: 2
Medina vs. Reese: Fight Tape Analysis
I don’t want to be overly critical of Medina, but he’s fought absolute trash cans since his pro debut back in 2017. He’s a preferred striker, and sure, some of that 205-power might give him confidence in a lower division, but his wrestling defense has a lot to be desired, and this doesn’t bode well for him when looking at his weekend opponent’s most notable traits.
Let’s rewind to Medina’s one decent opponent from his most recent showing on DWCS… The man was taken to the ground on six separate occasions, and at 33 years old, we shouldn’t expect that to change overnight.
A nasty wrestling offensive combined with one-punch knockout power can sum up Zac Reece in one sentence. More importantly, he’s very active when fights hit the ground, whether hunting submissions or beating the opposition into a pulp; violence is always guaranteed when Reese is involved.
UFC Vegas 96 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Reese a -500 favorite. While he presented reservations after the Brundage showing, that’s been his only downfall to date. He’s evidently a talented martial artist, particularly in a wrestling offense.
The same cannot be said for Medina. However, as the moneyline price is too steep, backing the under 1½ rounds feels like a viable alternative approach due to the skill discrepancy between these fighters and the finishing ability of Reese.
Not to mention, the under is also some insurance on the lack of experience Reese holds and the potential of another meme-KO that Medina could have the potential for.
Under 1½ Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 96 Facts
- 10 of Medina’s 11 pro-MMA wins came via knockout or submission
- All 7 of Reese’s career wins were achieved inside the distance
- Reese has seen under 1½ rounds in 11 straight MMA bouts (pro and amateur)
UFC Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds (-125) [1.25u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Viacheslav Borshchev vs. James Llontop
UFC Vegas 96 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Viacheslav Borshchev
Matchmakers need to align Viacheslav Borshchev with a striker, or he’ll be doomed. That’s what we’ve learned about the Russian’s UFC career thus far, and while a 2-3-1 promotional record is less-than-desirable, the man does know how to throw hands, and throw hands, he will!
- Borshchev Pro Record: 7-4-1
- Borshchev KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Borshchev Submission Wins: 0
James Llontop
Borshchev might present an undesirable UFC tenure to date, but at least he’s proven himself at this level. The same can’t be said for his weekend opponent, James Llontop.
Is Peru’s Llontop UFC worthy? We’re yet to discover this, as he was finished by Chris Padilla within four minutes of his debut earlier this year. Perhaps it was UFC jitters; who knows? But the good news is, the Peruvian prefers to strike, and he did display a lot of punching power when competing on the regional scene.
- Llontop Pro Record: 14-3-0
- Llontop KO/TKO Wins: 7
- Llontop Submission Wins: 1
Borshchev vs. Llontop: Fight Tape Analysis
The only question we need to ask is, can Llontop wrestle? Borshchev is allergic to wrestling, and every career defeat tells the same story: a horrid ground game and an inability to defend takedowns.
Thankfully for the Russian, his opponent also loves to strike, and he’s the more technical and experienced of the two in this discipline. We can forget the expectation of takedowns, and with a kickboxing bout expected to take place, it’s difficult to give the stand-and-bang style of Llontop finding paths to victory versus the well-refined and crips output of Bors.
UFC Vegas 96 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds place Borshchev as a significant betting favorite, and rightfully so. In a contest where we can expect striking exchanges more often than not, his cardio and long-standing kickboxing experience should overcome Llontop’s more brawling style.
I would never pay juice on Borshchev, but fortunately, both fighters have excellent chins and enough cardio to avoid an early gas and stoppage. A combination of Borshchev to win and over 1½ rounds delivers a plus-money price tag,
Borshchev & Over 1.5 Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 96 Facts
- Borshchev has gone over 1½ rounds in 5 consecutive UFC bouts
- Llontop has seen over 1½ rounds in 7 of his last 9 pro-MMA bouts
- Llontop is winless as a UFC competitor
UFC Pick: Borshchev & Over 1.5 Rounds (+110) [1u returns 1.10u profit] at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
