The NFL’s Week 12 schedule features a couple of games in prime time to close the week with the Chargers hosting the top-seeded Ravens and the Vikings looking to sweep the Bears on Monday night.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 12, and you can find the best odds at the top sportsbooks using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Bears-Vikings Under 43 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Ravens-Chargers Both to Score 1 Touchdown in Each Half (+165) at Bet365
The Best Bet in 2023: Monday Night Unders
When these teams met in Week 6, Minnesota won 19-13 in what is the lowest-scoring game for the Vikings under coach Kevin O’Connell since Week 2 of the 2022 season. While you might blame that on Chicago in the game that Justin Fields was injured, the fact is the Bears have seen the over hit in 7 of 11 games (63.6%), the highest rate in the NFL this year.
Minnesota is the team where the over is only 3-8 (27.3%), one of the worst records in 2023. It was just last year that the over was 12-6 (66.7%) in Minnesota games, the highest in the league. This is some regression to the mean, which is also why the Vikings have gone from 11-0 in close games to perfectly mediocre at 5-5.
But here we are with the Vikings on another Monday night, Kirk Cousins’ least favorite day of the week, and they are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 43 points.
Do we take the best bet in the 2023 season again and go with the under on a Monday night? Yep, that’s what we are doing here.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Monday, November 27, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Why Monday Night Unders Have Been the Best Bet in 2023
Last week’s Eagles-Chiefs game was a great test for the Monday night under bet, because those teams obviously have MVP candidates at quarterback and played a 38-35 Super Bowl last February.
But sure enough, the game ended 21-17 against a total of 45.5 points. It felt uglier to watch than that as the teams fumbled and dropped passes on their way to just 38 points as neither quarterback passed for 180 yards.
Simply put, Monday night is where scoring goes to die this season:
- The under is now 12-1 on Monday nights.
- The only game to go over was Browns-Steelers in Week 2, and that required a pair of defensive touchdown returns by Pittsburgh to get to 26-22.
- No one has scored more than 27 points on Monday night this season.
Some game is going to ruin this streak, but this does not feel like a great choice for that.
Why the Bears and Vikings May Struggle to Score
Is a game between Justin Fields and Joshua Dobbs all that likely to go over? To Minnesota’s credit, it has scored at least 17 points in every game this season despite not having Cousins and Justin Jefferson available that often.
But even in the 19-13 win over Chicago, the defense had to return a fumble touchdown by rookie backup Tyson Bagent after Fields was injured. Chicago’s defense is usually poor, but it did a good job of keeping the Vikings down on the scoreboard in that game. Jefferson is also not guaranteed to return for this game.
The Bears just played a 31-26 game in Detroit, but let’s not forget their last appearance in prime time when they won 16-13 against Carolina in one of the year’s ugliest games. The Vikings love to blitz and they blitzed Fields 10 times in Week 6 despite him only attempting 10 passes and taking 4 sacks, so the pressure should be after him in this one.
Before the Detroit game last week, none of Chicago’s previous 5 games topped 43 points.
The Pick
We’ll get burned eventually by one of these Monday night unders, but why not extend it another week? You can take Vikings -3.5 if you want as the Bears have lost 5 straight meetings with Minnesota by at least 6 points. But we will take the best bet in 2023 for this one and take the under 43 points.
NFL Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
How About Some Scoring This Sunday Night?
When the Broncos beat the Vikings last Sunday night, it marked something we had to wait 11 weeks to see this season: Sunday Night Football having a game where both offenses scored 20 points. The only other Sunday night game to end with both teams scoring 20 points was the 23-20 win by the Chiefs over the Jets, but the Jets needed a controversial safety in that game to get on the board with 2 points.
If you have followed this NFL season closely, then you know scoring has been a drag in island games, but especially in the ones played on Sunday and Monday nights. But maybe that will change this Sunday night when the Ravens take on the Chargers. Both teams are known for scoring and for blowing leads. Maybe we will get some real drama and action from this one for 4 quarters (or more).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. But we are focusing on a game prop where both teams will score at least 1 touchdown in each half.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 08:20 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Why the Ravens Can Get the Job Done
The Ravens have it a bit easier in this matchup as we know the Chargers allow a fair number of points under coach Brandon Staley. That has been the case every year since 2021. The Chargers may rank 23rd in points allowed, but it’s worse than that when you consider they padded their stats against Tyson Bagent (Bears) and Zach Wilson (Jets).
We have already seen the Chargers get ripped at home by the Dolphins (36 points) and Lions (41 points). They also allowed Patrick Mahomes to throw for over 300 yards in one half in Kansas City, and while you can write that off as a Mahomes thing, keep in mind how the Chiefs have usually looked on offense in 2023. It’s not the same there.
But the Chargers are largely the same bad defense under Staley, and Lamar Jackson gets his shot next. Jackson is playing very well, but he will have to make do without tight end Mark Andrews, who had surgery after his leg injury in last week’s 34-20 win over Cincinnati. But remember, the Ravens scored 34 points even after Andrews was injured on the opening drive.
Baltimore has scored at least 31 points in 5 straight games, and it feels like this streak is being ignored since the injuries that happened in the last game and the way the Ravens blew the Cleveland game the week before. But this is a great streak in a season where many teams are struggling to score.
Only 10 teams have ever made it to 6 straight games (same season only) with 31 points scored, but the Ravens do not need to go that high to score a touchdown in both halves. Baltimore has scored a touchdown in both halves in 9 of 11 games this year. The only times it did not was in London against the Titans and in Pittsburgh on the day they kept dropping the ball.
The Chargers Need to Step Up for Justin Herbert
Speaking of dropping the ball repeatedly, the Chargers had a ridiculous game in Green Bay where they dropped multiple touchdowns, conversions on 3rd and 4th downs, and Austin Ekeler fumbled from the 2-yard line on another drive. Rookie wideout Quentin Johnston dropped a possible game-winning touchdown on the final drive.
It was a fantastic game for Justin Herbert, who did his best Lamar impersonation and led the game with 73 rushing yards, but the Chargers took another loss because of self-inflicted mistakes.
Herbert has the physical tools to take this team far, but they continue to struggle in close games. Against a very good opponent like Baltimore, the Chargers need a strong start. They will hopefully be motivated after last week’s loss as falling to 4-7 is going to start to feel like the season is over.
This is a tough defense but it’s not the 2000 Ravens. It’s not the 2006 or 2008 Ravens either. There are plays to make, and the Chargers only have 8 turnovers this year, so they have protected the ball well and they have scored at least 17 points in every game.
We just need them to score in both halves instead of putting all their eggs in one basket and relying on a comeback or blowing another lead as the Chargers are known for doing.
The Pick
Just to summarize what’s happened this season for these teams:
- The Chargers scored a touchdown in both halves in 7-of-10 games.
- The Chargers have allowed 9-of-10 opponents to score a touchdown in both halves (everyone but the pathetic Jets).
- The Ravens scored a touchdown in both halves in 9-of-11 games.
- The Ravens have allowed 3-of-11 opponents to score a touchdown in both halves, but the Bengals just did it last week in a half without Joe Burrow.
The Chargers on offense against this Baltimore defense is the only concerning part about this one. But unless you think the game is going to be a total rout, which usually isn’t the case in prime time this year due to the low scores, then you should feel confident about Herbert doing something early and late in this one for his team.
That may not result in a win for the Chargers, but that is why we are going with a game prop for scoring rather than the spread or moneyline. Hopefully, the Chargers will play with some desperation at 4-6 as a win over the top seed would be a big boost for their confidence.
NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 1 Touchdown in Each Half (+165) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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