Each week throughout the college football season, OddsTrader scours the college odds board and highlights three of the biggest potential upsets for that week’s NCAAF slate. These are underdogs that will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory.
Last week, we swept the board with Illinois and Memphis covering while Michigan State upset Indiana on the road and won their game outright, returning +165 on the moneyline! Let’s check out the college odds board in Week 13 and keep cashing our tickets!
- South Carolina ML (+228)
- UAB ML (+140)
- Massachusetts ML (+115)
Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Williams-Brice Stadium
- Clemson is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Clemson is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against an SEC opponent.
- South Carolina is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
If you are a fan of this rivalry, you may recall that South Carolina pulled a stunning upset of Clemson last year at Death Valley when the Gamecocks claimed a 31-30 victory over the Tigers as 14-point road underdogs.
I believe the chances are good we will see a repeat of that upset, only this time South Carolina fans will be able to witness it in their own backyard. The Gamecocks have won their last three contests and covered two of them, including a 17-14 win over Kentucky last week as 2½ point favorites.
The key to victory will be South Carolina’s impressive aerial attack, ranked 15th in the nation averaging over 293 yards per game. Clemson is merely average defending the pass and I suspect we will see the Gamecocks moving the chains while being able to withstand a solid Tigers offense. Grab the touchdown head start and watch the ‘Cocks score the upset.
NCAAF Pick: South Carolina ML (+228) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 02:00 PM ET at DATCU Stadium
- UAB is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against North Texas.
- UAB is 10-4 SU in their last 14 games played in November.
- North Texas is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
This is a game that will be overlooked by the majority of those wagering on college football this weekend. However, those are the games where we often find the most opportunity and value because the oddsmakers’ attention is elsewhere due to the dearth of action on the less popular contests.
UAB is hot off the heels of a 34-24 victory over Temple and covered the number as 8-point home chalk. It was an impressive offensive performance from a team that couldn’t get its aerial or ground attack going the week before when the Blazers fell, 31-6, to Navy.
The Blazers have owned the Mean Green in recent memory, having won 6 of the last 7 contests and covering in all of them. Both of these teams own top-20 passing attacks with decent, albeit unspectacular, pass defenses. However, the Blazers will not only cover but will win outright due to UAB’s Jermaine Brown Jr. in the backfield and a quarterback, Jacob Zeno, who completes over 74% of his passes.
Grab the points and put a few bucks on the moneyline with the Blazers.
NCAAF Pick: UAB +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
NCAAF Pick: UAB ML (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
- Connecticut is 2-16 SU in their last 18 games on the road.
- Connecticut is 2-11 SU in their last 13 games.
- Connecticut is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 Saturday road games.
UConn snapped its four-game losing streak last week with a 31-3 walkover against dubious FCS entry Sacred Heart and covered the number as 25-point home favorites. Had they failed to do anything remotely less than spanking a 2-9 team from the lower level of D-1 college football, it would have been a travesty.
Meanwhile, the Minutemen were trying to hang tough against an undefeated Liberty squad, and had they not been caught flat-footed in the opening quarter when they fell behind 21-0, they could have made a game of it as they kept pace the rest of the way but bowed, 49-25, and narrowly covered as 26-point point road underdogs.
There is a distinct pattern in this series, with each team alternating wins and ATS covers over the last five meetings. If that pattern holds true, then UMass will come away the victor as a 2½ point home dog, having been defeated by the Huskies, 27-10, as 15-point road dogs last year.
These are two less-than-stellar teams to be sure, but the Minutemen own a significant advantage on the ground, ranked 70th and averaging 155 rushing yards per game, against a porous Connecticut run-stop unit ranked 96th and allowing over 165 rushing yards per game. UMass also boasts a better overall offense, scoring 23.5 PPG versus UConn’s 16.7 PPG.
Watch this alternating trend continue on Saturday with the Minutemen winning this one outright.
NCAAF Pick: Massachusetts +2½ (-109) at BetRivers
NCAAF Pick: Massachusetts ML (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.