The NFL’s Week 16 schedule has some prime-time games that are key for the wild card races:
- On Sunday night, the Denver Broncos (7-7) will hope to rebound at home against the New England Patriots after a bad loss in Detroit last week.
- On Thursday night, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints battle as 7-7 teams in the NFC race.
We made our top pick for each prime-time game in Week 16, and you can find the best odds at top sportsbooks using OddsTrader.
Picks Summary
- Broncos -6 (-110)
- Saints-Rams Over 44.5 Points (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Broncos Need to Stuff Belichick’s Stocking with Coal
The Broncos (7-7) did themselves no favors last week with an embarrassing 42-17 loss in Detroit. It was the first time the Broncos allowed more than 22 points in a game since their Week 5 loss to the Jets. But the Broncos can rebound against the Patriots, who are 3-11, the worst record in the AFC.
Sean Payton probably wouldn’t mind saying he handed Belichick a 12th loss, which would be his most ever in a season. The Broncos are a 6-point home favorite, and we are looking at their chance to cover.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 24, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High
Sean Payton vs. Bill Belichick
These coaches never met in the playoffs, but they had some battles over the years in brighter days when Drew Brees and Tom Brady were their quarterbacks. The last Payton vs. Belichick game was in 2021 when Payton’s Saints won 28-13 in New England thanks to intercepting rookie Mac Jones 3 times, including a pick-6.
Some things never change, and while Jones has been benched in New England, it’s not like the Patriots are getting much better play from Bailey Zappe, who would rank dead last in QBR (26.7) if he had enough plays to qualify this year.
The Broncos definitely have the better quarterback in this matchup, though this has not been Russell Wilson’s finest season. Still, he is a quarterback Belichick would die to have right now instead of the situation he is stuck in.
The Patriots have scored more than 21 points just once this year, and that 29-25 win over Buffalo feels like the fluke of the year given what we normally see from this team.
The Denver Defense Can Rebound at Home
But the Broncos are going to have to prove something in this game that their defense is not regressing after allowing 42 points in Detroit. It was the first time in the last 9 games that Denver allowed more than 22 points.
It was also one of the rare times where Denver failed to generate any takeaways, which were key to the team’s 5-game winning streak when it had 16 takeaways, which were key to beating superior teams like Buffalo and Kansas City.
But the defense has to be licking its chops at getting this struggling New England offense. Not only is the quarterback bad, but the running game is not a strength, especially with Rhamondre Stevenson injured. The receivers are a hot mess with DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and tight end Hunter Henry trying to make things work to little success.
Basically, if you don’t give the Patriots short fields with turnovers, they won’t score more than 14 points. This is why a safe, conservative approach to offense from Payton and Wilson could be beneficial in this matchup.
Besides, we hope Wilson learned his lesson about throwing passes from the 1-yard line against a Belichick defense.
The Pick
Even Belichick is only 5-7 with the Patriots in Denver, and that includes wins in the last meetings in 2016 and 2017, back when the Patriots had a relevant roster. The Broncos are not coming into this game hot by any means, but we think the Mile High altitude will help and they can outlast a bad offense at home with Wilson having a solid game against a defense that lacks a quality pass rusher or shutdown corner to deal with Courtland Sutton.
We’ll take Payton to get a cover over Belichick for your NFL picks thanks to his superior roster and home-field advantage. Zappe and that putrid offense can be the gift that keeps on giving with turnovers to help Denver win by a big enough margin. Remember, the Patriots are a league-worst 3-10-1 ATS this year.
NFL Pick: Broncos -6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Can Rams and Saints Stay Hot on Thursday?
The Rams were able to score at least 28 points for the 4th game in a row in a 28-20 win over Washington on Sunday. That should be a good matchup with a New Orleans defense that has only allowed 6 points in back-to-back wins over the Panthers and Giants. But Derek Carr is going to have to expect to need more points than that to get past Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford in this one.
The Rams are a 4-point home favorite with a total of 44.5 points. We are looking at the over.
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams
Thursday, December 21, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at SoFi Stadium
Rams in a Good Flow Right Now
It was only in 2021 when the Rams put together one of the best offenses in the league and won the Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford was a huge addition from Detroit, and Cooper Kupp was in rare form with arguably the best wide receiver season in NFL history.
Last year, things did not go well as the Rams lost key pieces from that Super Bowl team, including a No. 2 receiver to back up Kupp. The offensive line also lost Andrew Whitworth and took a step back, and Stafford entered the season with a mysterious elbow injury that certainly didn’t improve with the way physical defenses (Bills, 49ers, Cowboys) roughed him up in ugly losses.
Eventually, the Rams ended the season with their best players left (Stafford, Kupp, and Aaron Donald) on injured reserve, and the team set a record for the worst record (5-12) by a defending Super Bowl champion.
Things Get Better
Going into this season, the Rams looked like a roster with 3 studs and 50 nobodies, and Kupp was even injured early with a hamstring issue that kept him out in September. But Puka Nacua was an incredible find at wide receiver, and Stafford looked healthier.
Not everything was clicking right away, but the Rams were almost exceeding expectations when you consider the defense brought back almost no one familiar except for Donald. But at 3-6 at the bye week, McVay must have worked some magic as the Rams are rolling again, going 4-1 in the last 5 games and only losing to the top-seeded Ravens on the road in overtime.
Stafford has been shredding it with Kupp and Nacua working together, Kyren Williams has been a dominant 2nd-year running back, and the defense is trending in the right direction. It would seem more than likely that the Rams should be able to score at least 24 points at home in this matchup.
The Saints have allowed at least 24 points in 6-of-14 games this year, but the Rams are better than most of the offenses they have played.
Can Carr Repeat Andy Dalton’s Success?
When these teams met last November, it was an eventful game with the Saints winning 27-20 at home. But it was an extra bad day for the Rams as Stafford left the game with a spinal contusion that ended his season. The Rams lost Kupp for the year a week later.
But Stafford looked good against this defense before his injury, completing 11-of-18 passes for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. But that may not have been enough as the Saints picked apart this defense with starter Andy Dalton completing 21-of-25 passes for 260 yards and 3 touchdowns.
That is why we referenced Derek Carr needing to repeat Andy Dalton’s success in this matchup. Maybe not that good, but Carr did just throw 3 touchdowns for the first time all season in a win over the Giants. He also completed 23-of-28 passes, his highest rate this season.
Carr may need to match Stafford score for score if the Saints are going to stay in these wild card and NFC South races.
The Pick
This feels like a game where both teams can get to 20 points like they did last year. Instead of betting on that specific game prop and getting burned when the game ends 26-19, we are just going to go with the over 44.5 points.
The last 4 games for the Rams have all had at least 48 points. The last time the Saints played an offense that wasn’t terrible, they lost 33-28 to the Lions in Week 13. We are going to trust the Rams to steer the way to this over.
NFL Pick: Over 44.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
