The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this week’s NFL action, and three games interest me: Jaguars vs. Titans, Buccaneers vs. Panthers, and Bears vs. Packers.
For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on all three underdogs. I personally like to invest three-quarters of a unit in the underdog ATS and the remaining quarter in the underdog ML.
Picks Summary
- Titans ML (+190)
- Panthers ML (+205)
- Bears ML (+140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, January 07, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium
Tennessee Home vs. Away
It is tempting to bet on the Jaguars because they won their first meeting against Tennessee by 20 points. However, a lot is different from that first game.
That game took place in Jacksonville, which is meaningful because the Titans are a horrible road team. The Titans’ offensive production has suffered the most in road games, where they average the fewest points per game. They score 9.9 more points at home than they do on the road.
The same disparity exists in terms of their defensive production: Tennessee concedes the ninth-fewest points per game at home and allows 5.5 more points per game on the road than it does at home.
One must, therefore, expect the Titans to score more points and to allow fewer points in the rematch. This is the sort of thing that we’ve seen from the Titans already. On the road, they lost to Indianapolis 23-16. At home, they lost to the Colts 31-28 in overtime.
In this home game, their defense allowed fewer points in regulation than it did in the rematch – the Colts blocked a punt for a touchdown and had a -3-yard drive conclude in a field goal. The Houston games are hard to compare because Houston missed its starting quarterback for one of them, but the Titans scored 13 more points in the home game than in the road game.
Tennessee’s Defensive Improvement
Tennessee’s rematch against Jacksonville will also be different because their first meeting took place in Week 11.
Since then, the Titans’ defensive front, which before the season was regarded as their strength on defense, ramped up their production, with edge rushers like Denico Autry and Harold Landry getting more sacks and tackles for loss.
In its last home game, Tennessee’s improved defense held Seattle to 20 points and 273 total yards of offense.
This is the sort of effort that the Titans will be determined to give on Sunday, especially after being embarrassed in Jacksonville and after being embarrassed last week in Houston.
Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s status is up in the air for this game. Lawrence is working through a shoulder injury, which is one of myriad injuries that have hindered his performance in his most recent games, leading him to fail to have his passer rating reach 84 against Cleveland, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay.
But he cannot only blame injuries. He struggles under pressure, ranking 26th in completion rate under pressure. On Sunday, he is likely to face a lot of pressure behind an offensive line that typically struggles to protect its quarterback.
Boosted by its recent improvement, Tennessee ranks eighth in pass rush win rate. Lawrence, or backup CJ Beathard if he starts, will struggle to establish a rhythm in the face of Tennessee’s edge rushers.
Travis Etienne
Also due to its poor offensive line, Jacksonville’s run game repeatedly struggles.
While running back Travis Etienne achieved a nice rushing average in his team’s last game, against Carolina, 62 of his 102 rushing yards came on one carry. That means that his 15 other carries amounted to a paltry 40 rushing yards. This is consistent with his struggle to be efficient against bottom-feeder rush defense Indianapolis.
Tennessee’s run defense is particularly stout at home, where it allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards. So the overwhelming burden to produce on offense will be placed on a Jaguars quarterback who will be under great duress from Tennessee’s pass rush.
Titans’ Plan on Offense
It is very obvious what Jacksonville’s plan on defense will be: the Jaguars like to blitz and they will be especially inclined to be aggressive because it worked for them last week and because they were also very aggressive in their win over Tennessee.
Being at home, the Titans will find a way to be more productive.
Potential strategies include emphasizing the short-passing game and replicating Cincinnati’s strategy to max protection so that Jacksonville’s pass rush has a harder time coming home, which would leave the Jaguars’ secondary more vulnerable to one-on-one matchups against the likes of 1,000-yard receiver, contested catch menace DeAndre Hopkins.
All the Titans need to do is to reach 20 points, six more than they scored in Jacksonville, in order to win what will be a low-scoring game.
NFL Pick: Titans +5.5 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Titans ML (+190) at Bet365
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, January 07, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
The First Game
These two teams met on December 3 in Tampa Bay. Carolina covered the spread in its three-point loss. Its defense was effective: Tampa Bay’s running game was inefficient and Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield failed to complete half of his passes.
The Panthers’ offense scored 18 points behind strong running from Chuba Hubbard.
Rematch
This is a rematch that will proceed similarly to the first.
Tampa Bay regularly struggles to run the ball – the Bucs average the second-fewest rushing yards per game. Their struggle to run makes their offense match up as poorly as possible against a Carolina defense whose weakness is stopping the run. The Panthers own the third-best pass defense, so Tampa Bay’s reliance on passing the ball creates a negative outlook for its offense.
On defense, the Bucs’ leaky secondary – Tampa Bay ranks last in pass defense – benefited in the first game from facing a Panthers quarterback in Bryce Young, who had not broken out yet. In Carolina’s home games on December 17 against Atlanta and on December 24 against Green Bay, Young showed great improvement as a playmaker.
On December 24, this improvement amounted to his first 300-yard performance of the season. He showed nice chemistry with speedy deep-threat DJ Chark in addition to Adam Thielen.
Carolina’s offense will score more points in the rematch thanks to Young’s improvement, while its defense will continue to succeed against Tampa Bay’s pass-reliant offense.
NFL Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-110) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Panthers ML (+205) at Bet365
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, January 07, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Lambeau Field
Green Bay’s Defense
The Packers’ defense looked great in its last game, a 33-10 win over the Vikings, because it got to face their third-string quarterback and their low-ranked rush attack. Normally, Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to opposing rush attacks.
The Packers allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game. Their secondary has also been especially leaky, lately, recently allowing Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young to combine for 693 yards in consecutive weeks.
Chicago’s Offense
Chicago scored 20 points in its Week 1 loss to Green Bay but has, since then, improved offensively thanks to the stronger play of quarterback Justin Fields. He is doing a better job with a lot of different important things, such as keeping his eyes downfield, establishing timing with his receivers, making accurate throws, and having good pocket presence.
The Bears also boast a strong running game with Fields and with the onset of running back Khalil Herbert, who has amassed over 100 rushing yards in each of his team’s last two games.
With Fields and Herbert, Chicago scored 27 points two games ago against Arizona and 37 points in its last game, against Atlanta. One should expect the Bears to have no problem scoring upwards of 30 points on Sunday.
Chicago’s Defense
The Bears have also improved on defense, as their front seven is gelling and their secondary has gotten healthy. They’ve held their last five opponents to 20 points or fewer, with one of their victims being Detroit’s high-powered offense.
When Green Bay beat them in Week 1, the Bears were in a phase of their season in which they were repeatedly allowing 30+ points. Chicago’s new defense will make it hard for Green Bay to reach 20 points.
No Pressure
Bettors like to invest in the team that has “more to play for,” but besides the fact that Chicago would love to spoil its division rival’s playoff hopes, the Bears are benefiting from their lack of pressure to win. They are a team that is playing loose and having fun.
Last week, the playoff-hopeful Falcons needed to win but lost to Chicago by 20 points. When they were 3-8, the Bears also won at Minnesota, beating another playoff-hopeful team. Their victory over Green Bay on Sunday should really surprise nobody.
NFL Pick: Bears +3 (-105) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Bears ML (+140) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
