We’ve got a full slate of college football on Saturday! Here are three college football computer picks that the AI Model likes for Week 3, so let’s break down the college football odds for these games!
Picks Summary
- Ohio +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- LSU -10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Appalachian State -9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
East Carolina Pirates vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Kidd Brewer Stadium
The AI Model suggests the Appalachian State Mountaineers will win, 43-25, against the East Carolina Pirates on Saturday. With Appalachian State at -9.5 against the spread, there’s clear value on the Mountaineers.
Bad First Impression
The East Carolina Pirates look horrible to begin the year.
The Pirates faced Michigan in the first game and lost 30-3. Then they lost to Marshall in the second matchup, 31-13.
The Pirates faced some tough competition. But they didn’t belong in those games. The pass protection was terrible, and the passing game for the Pirates lacked a lot of explosiveness over the season’s first two weeks.
Not Looking Good for Mason
Mason Garcia has thrown for just 142 yards in two games this season. He’s also tossed two interceptions to just one touchdown.
Appalachian State kept Drake Maye in check for several series against North Carolina last weekend. Mason Garcia will struggle badly.
The Pick
The Mountaineers have added 444 yards per game on offense. The defense is terrific in coverage and is excellent in the run game.
I’ve got no worries here. The AI Model knows. Take Appalachian State against the spread.
NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State -9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Ohio Bobcats
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Peden Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Ohio Bobcats will earn a significant upset against Iowa State on Saturday. At home, Ohio is a 2.5-point underdog. But our AI Model has the Bobcats earning a 25-18 win.
Wouldn’t this be something?
The computer model believes Iowa State will lose to Ohio on the road against a non-Power Five school. Ohio only defeated Long Island University, 27-10, but escaped Florida Atlantic, 17-10 last time out.
On the other hand, Iowa State lost to Iowa, 20-13, and only earned a 30-9 win over an FCS team in Northern Iowa.
Iowa State has a lot of players in trouble due to gambling. They’re without a lot of starters, including at quarterback. The Cyclones have only earned 270 yards per game on offense, but they’ve held teams to 257 yards on defense.
Track Record
However, Ohio’s offense includes senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who hasn’t been great this year. But he’s got a track record of success.
Ohio will pack Peden Stadium against Iowa State and make this game a home-field advantage. Iowa State is on a significant downfall. They’re now expected to be one of the worst teams in the Big 12.
The Pick
The Big 12 will only get harder next year and the year after.
Only when Iowa State changes its approach to recruiting will things get ugly. Let’s ride Ohio at home as underdogs.
NCAAF Pick: Ohio +2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
LSU Tigers vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Saturday, September 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Davis Wade Stadium
Our AI Model believes the LSU Tigers will defeat the Mississippi State Bulldogs, 39-25, as 10-point favorites. The 14-point win would be enough to cover the spread.
Ugly Look
The LSU Tigers lost their opener to Florida State. However, they responded with a 72-10 beatdown against Grambling State.
The defense has a lot of work to do. The coverage is weak, and they’ve missed so many tackles to begin the year.
Legitimate Offense
However, the offense behind Jayden Daniels is legitimate. The offensive line needs to improve in pass protection to give Daniels time in the pocket. Against Mississippi State, LSU should be able to.
I don’t think the Bulldogs have a great pass rush. The secondary has played well. However, if there’s no pass rush, LSU’s receivers will find ways to get open for Daniels.
Daniels can also run around pressure and add yardage with his feet.
The Pick
The Bulldogs still have Will Rogers at quarterback. He’s added five passing touchdowns in two weeks.
But Mississippi State escaped Arizona at home last weekend with a 31-24 win in overtime. They were expected to win that game outright by a solid margin.
I don’t think the Bulldogs can keep up offensively with LSU.
Back LSU at -10.
NCAAF Pick: LSU -10 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
