Each week throughout the season OddsTrader scours the NCAAF odds board looking for betting value. Today, we highlight three of the biggest Week 4 NCAA college football upsets.
These are underdogs that will not only cover the spread but are poised to pull the outright victory. Last week two of our three underdogs, Missouri, and Florida, not only covered the spread but also won outright, so let’s see what we have this week!
- Mississippi State ML (+205)
- West Virginia ML (+192)
- Virginia Tech ML (+175)
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Williams-Brice Stadium
- Mississippi State has allowed only one turnover this season.
- Mississippi State running back, Jo’quavious Marks, has a team-high 108.3 yards per game and has scored three touchdowns
- Mississippi State receiver, Lideatrick Griffin, has 13 catches and leads the team with 132 receiving yards while scoring two touchdowns.
If it’s value you seek then you couldn’t do much better than getting the Mississippi State Bulldogs at +6.5 which is up a full two points from where this game opened. Let’s understand that the Bulldogs were blown out last week by a national powerhouse in LSU while South Carolina proved to be grittier than many expected by hanging within the margins and getting an easy cover as 26-point underdogs in a 24-14 loss to Ohio State.
That stark dichotomy is being reflected in the money pouring in on South Carolina because the public has the memory of a goldfish. One-week snapshots tell the entire tale for Joe Q. Public which is why it’s never a bad idea to be on the other side of the betting masses. Let’s grab the 6.5 or buy the hook to 7 if you want to be safe and cash a ticket with the Dawgs.
College Football Pick: Mississippi State ML (+205) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Milan Puskar Stadium
- Texas Tech quarterback, Tyler Shough, averages 247.7 yards per game and has a 60.7% completion percentage with seven touchdowns this season.
- Texas Tech running back, Tahj Brooks, has a 7.3 yards per carry average.
- Texas Tech’s leading receiver, Jerand Bradley, averages 70.3 receiving yards per game and has two touchdowns.
The line opened with Texas Tech at -4.5 to where it now sits at -6, a full point and a half from where it began. However, in tracking this line, there was a point at which the number reached north of six but sanity has somewhat prevailed as the sharps likely took a bite at +6.5 and the oddsmakers adjusted because of it.
The Mountaineers picked up a solid 17-6 win over Pittsburgh last week as 2.5 point home chalk and are now 2-1 straight up and ATS on the season. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 1-2 SU and ATS which is why it is perplexing to me that they are giving this many points on the highway, especially in light of their 35-33 loss to Wyoming as 13.5 point road favorites in their season opener.
College Football Pick: West Virginia +6 (-110) at BetRivers
College Football Pick: West Virginia ML (+192) at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday, September 23, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Joan C. Edwards Stadium
- Virginia Tech has won the last four games versus Marshall.
- Virginia Tech quarterback, Grant Wells, has averaged 247 passing yards per game and thrown 5 touchdowns in his two games this season.
- Virginia Tech receiver, Jaylin Lane has nine receptions for a team-leading 123 yards and two touchdowns.
We are usually quick to pick up value but sometimes the number adjusts overnight and it’s too late. This appears to be the case here as Marshall opened at -7.5 but that number has dipped to five which is important because it crosses two key numbers (7 and 6) but is still above two other key numbers (3 and 4).
The Herd enters this game at 2-0 on the young season and although they had an impressive 31-13 win over ECU last week, they had a tough time getting by Albany in their season opener as 23-point favorites but winning by only four points.
Virginia Tech is a step up in class for the Herd and has won their last four meetings against Marshall. Although the Hokies could not hang with Rutgers last week in a 35-16 road loss this Marshall defense is not as stout as Rutgers and I see a possible upset with the steam on our side.
College Football Pick: Virginia Tech +5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
College Football Pick: Virginia Tech ML (+175) at Caesars Sportsbook