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Week 8 NCAA College Football Computer Picks: Can Duke Defy the Odds and Stun Florida State?

We’ve got three best bets from the computers at Oddstrader for Week 8 of the College Football season. Which bets are you tailing?

Picks Summary


UTSA Roadrunners vs. Florida Atlantic Owls

Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at FAU Stadium


Our AI Model believes Florida Atlantic will only lose to UTSA at home by one point. But as three-point underdogs, there’s some value that we can cash in on.

No Thompson, No Problem

The Florida Atlantic Owls don’t have Casey Thompson at quarterback but the defense is sensational, and the offense hasn’t missed a beat recently.

FAU scored 56 points in a 56-14 win against South Florida. This is the same USF team that Alabama only scored 17 points on, for example.

Daniel Richardson has thrown for 902 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s not going to wow you with his arm, but the run game will be behind Larry McCammon. He’s added 5.5 yards per carry on 81 carries this season.

Contrasting UTSA and FAU

UTSA’s defense has given up 406 yards per game. The secondary is miserable, and the tackling has been laughable at times. Therefore, when Richardson gets comfortable in the pocket, he’ll be able to make a lot of players down the field against UTSA.

On the other hand, FAU has allowed 392.7 yards per game on defense. However, the run defense is much better than the 160.8 yards per game they’ve allowed this year. The secondary is also above average this season.

The Pick

With UTSA struggling to block for Frank Harris, I like FAU to earn the win at home. We’ll play it safe and take the points at one of our online sportsbooks.

NCAAF Pick: FAU +3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Ole Miss Rebels vs. Auburn Tigers

Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Jordan-Hare Stadium


Our AI Model believes Ole Miss will earn a 34-27 win over Auburn on Saturday. As a -5.5-point favorite, Ole Miss should cover the spread according to the model. I agree.

A Tale of Contrasting Performances

The Auburn Tigers just looked lost against LSU last weekend, scoring 18 points in a 48-18 blowout on the road. Ole Miss scored 55 points against that same team.

Don’t be shocked when Ole Miss dominates offensively in this game too. The Rebels have added nearly 490 yards of offense per game behind Jaxson Dart, who has added 1,638 yards with 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions.

Key Matchup Dynamics

Ole Miss has a reliable quarterback and a stud running back who can carry Ole Miss right through Auburn’s defense. That Auburn defense doesn’t have a good pass rush, and they’ve missed plenty of tackles this season too.

Meanwhile, Auburn’s added only 155.8 yards in the air but has gained 191.5 yards per game on the ground. The Tigers can’t put themselves in third and longs. They won’t score any points doing that.

The Pick

Therefore, while Auburn should be better offensively than last week, Ole Miss will likely score on most possessions if they watch some LSU tape last weekend.

Take Ole Miss against the spread at the college football odds board. The AI Model knows.

NCAAF Pick: Ole Miss -5.5 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)


Duke Blue Devils vs. Florida State Seminoles

Saturday, October 21, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Doak Campbell Stadium


The AI Model suggests that the Duke Blue Devils will defeat Florida State on Saturday, 27-26. However, Duke is a 14-point underdog heading into this game. A sprinkle on the Duke moneyline wouldn’t be a terrible thing!

Injury Concerns for Duke Quarterback

Florida State might be better, but not by 14 points. The Duke Blue Devils might not have Riley Leonard at quarterback due to an injury. He sprained his ankle in a game against Notre Dame a few weeks ago and is questionable for this game.

I have a guy feeling that Leonard will play in this game after he was held out against North Carolina State last weekend. Leonard has only thrown three touchdowns this season, but he’s a big playmaker with his feet.

Jordan Waters has also added nine touchdowns on 65 carries for 426 yards. He’s averaged 6.6 yards per carry this season.

Pursuit of ACC Glory

With Florida State missing a lot of tackles this season, the run game could be electric. Obviously, if Leonard plays, he likely won’t be as effective as a runner, but he’s a player with massive experience that can help push Duke to a victory on offense.

Meanwhile, Florida State is undefeated. They want to win the ACC and earn a College Football Playoff bid.

With Jordan Travis at quarterback, it’s possible. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception this season. And like Leonard, he’s a capable runner and can make plays with his feet.

However, we can’t underestimate how good Duke’s defense has been. The secondary has held teams to 164.7 yards per game, and the defense has held teams to under 300 yards this season.

The Pick

Duke will have success rushing the football, and if they play complementary football, they’ll be in this game throughout. Back Duke at +14.

NCAAF Pick: Duke +14 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)

The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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