The NFL’s Week 8 schedule has a lot of teams favored by a touchdown, but we think that presents good opportunities for players to hit overs, either by dominating a weak opponent or boosting volume to keep up as the underdog. Ravens-Cardinals, Texans-Panthers, and Raiders-Lions are a few games we have in mind this week.
- Zay Flowers (BAL) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Adam Thielen (CAR) Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- D.J. Moore (CHI) Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Christian Kirk (JAX) Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at BetRivers
- Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Monday, October 30, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Ford Field
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions)
- Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
It looks like David Montgomery will miss another game for the Lions, leaving another golden opportunity for rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to shine as the starter. He gets a Las Vegas defense that has already allowed 9 rushing touchdowns, and the Raiders rank 24th in rushing yards and 21st in yards per carry.
The game script should also be more favorable this week as the Raiders have struggled to score 20 points all season. The Lions score more at home and generally play better on offense at home under Jared Goff in the Dan Campbell era.
Last week, Gibbs scored his first touchdown and still rushed for 68 yards despite the Lions trailing Baltimore 35-0 at one point. The game script was terrible for rushing production, but Gibbs still carved out a nice game given the circumstances.
After that disaster in Baltimore, look for Campbell to whip these boys into a physical team that runs over the Raiders. Gibbs should get the majority of the workload again, and over 65.5 is a low bar for this offense on a good night against a bad opponent.
NFL Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 04:25 PM EDT at State Farm Stadium
Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Zay Flowers may only be a rookie, but he continues to be Lamar Jackson’s favorite new receiver. Flowers has 54 targets, or 14 more than any other Baltimore receiver this year. Flowers also leads the team with 442 receiving yards.
But one stat where Flowers has not dominated is scoring touchdowns. Tight end Mark Andrews is a better target in the red zone, but Flowers has good YAC ability and can make plays down the field. However, he has only caught 1-of-8 Baltimore passing touchdowns this year. Flowers’ 442 receiving yards are the 3rd most entering Week 8 by any receiver who does not have 2 touchdown catches this season.
Arizona’s defense is weak in the secondary and has allowed a league-high 1,357 receiving yards to wide receivers. The Cardinals have also allowed 7 touchdowns to wide receivers, which is tied for the 7th most this season.
Jackson looked great against Detroit last week in one of the best games of his career. Maybe that will be a launching point for this new offense, and the Cardinals are a great opponent to exploit on the road. Let’s count on Jackson and Flowers having a big game together and showing up Lamar’s former No. 1 Marquise Brown by connecting on a touchdown.
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Bank of America Stadium
Adam Thielen (Carolina Panthers)
- Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
The Panthers have a bad offense, but no one better blame Adam Thielen for that. After catching 2 passes for 12 yards in Week 1, Thielen has come alive with 7 or 11 catches in every game since.
Thielen has already gone over 100 yards 3 times and looks as good as he ever did in Minnesota. The 33-year-old receiver is catching 83.1% of his targets this year, which would beat his career-best 75.0% in 2016.
What Thielen is doing relative to his teammates is absurd right now. His 49 catches are 33 more than the next closest Panther. Thielen is also more than 300 yards ahead of his teammates.
Carolina’s running game has been stagnant with Miles Sanders not working out so far after coming from the Eagles. Thielen is the offense, and if the Panthers are going to finally secure a win in 2023, he’ll need to have a big game to hit the over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Adam Thielen Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
D.J. Moore (Chicago Bears)
- Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
It feels like when there’s a Sunday night game no one wants to watch, it surprisingly turns out to be a good one. This matchup has its work cut out for it, but maybe a bad Brandon Staley defense is something the Bears can exploit with rookie backup quarterback Tyson Bagent, who will start again for the injured Justin Fields (thumb).
Just look at what happened last week against the Raiders, another bad defense. Bagent started for the 1st time, but offensive coordinator Luke Getsy was wise to call safe, short passes and make it easy on his inexperienced passer.
D.J. Moore caught 8-of-9 passes for 54 yards as they made an effort to get their best receiver the ball in a variety of ways. While 54 yards on 8 catches is not great, it helped Bagent settle into the game.
If Moore gets volume like that again, you can trust him to break a big play against the Chargers, who are allowing quarterbacks to throw for 335.5 yards per game this season (worst in NFL). No defense allows more fantasy points per game to wide receivers than the Chargers. This could be another big Moore night if the Bears throw it enough.
Look, it is shocking the NFL kept this matchup in prime time, but the last we saw Moore at night, he had 230 yards and 3 touchdowns against Washington in the game of his career. This won’t be that good, but he only needs 59 yards to hit his over against one of the worst defenses in the league in a game where his team could be in need of several touchdowns if Justin Herbert shows up.
Let’s ride Moore again in prime time.
NFL Pick: D.J. Moore Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, October 29, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Acrisure Stadium
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Hopefully, this is not a week where the Steelers decide to start shutting down productive wide receivers again. Last week, Cooper Kupp burned us with just 29 yards (and 2 drops) as Puka Nacua had all the fun with 8 catches for 154 yards for the Rams. That was supposed to be Kupp’s line.
This week, we are going back to the Pittsburgh defense as it allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, but we have a bit of a conundrum with the Jacksonville wide receivers.
Namely, who is No. 1 and who is No. 2 for Trevor Lawrence? Christian Kirk was the No. 1 last year, but the trade for Calvin Ridley and his past success led many to think he would take over. When Ridley had over 100 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Colts, things looked logical and made sense.
But now it’s Week 8 and Ridley has been very inconsistent. The numbers are also favoring Kirk again:
- Kirk: 55 targets, 39 catches, 474 yards, 3 TD, 8.6 yards per target
- Ridley: 48 targets, 27 catches, 368 yards, 2 TD, 7.7 yards per target
Last week aside, if the Steelers stink against No. 1 wide receivers, does that mean they’ll be shredded by Kirk in the slot, or is Ridley the No. 1 set to have a big game on the outside and on deep shots?
It’s a confusing situation, and our best hope is they both hit 60 yards in this game to make it easy for over bettors expecting a Jacksonville win.
We are going to trust Kirk because of his precise route running and trust built with Lawrence. Week 1 looks like the fluke when he had 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 targets. Kirk has gone over 53.5 yards in 5-of-6 games since. Let’s watch him do it again with this secondary’s struggles to cover wide receivers.
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