Editor’s Note: The Steelers-Bills game scheduled for Sunday has been rescheduled to Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET due to severe weather conditions and concerns for public safety, as announced by the NFL.
The NFL’s Wild Card round kicks off the playoffs this weekend with 6 games featuring a ton of great storylines and intrigue.
Sunday alone has the Steelers taking on the Bills after both teams fired their offensive coordinators in November, the Packers will face former head coach Mike McCarthy in Dallas, and Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit with the Rams in search of a 2nd Super Bowl ring.
We studied the OddsTrader computer picks and found 3 of our favorite bets that you can find at top-rated sportsbooks for the Wild Card round.
Picks Summary
- Steelers-Bills Over 35 Points (-110) at Bet365
- Cowboys -7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Rams-Lions Over 51.5 Points (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Steelers and Bills Thriving After Big Changes
If you went back to Thanksgiving and told someone what they thought of the Steelers facing the Bills in the 7-2 matchup in the AFC playoffs, they would have thought you were crazy.
The Steelers were 6-4 and just fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Bills had just fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and were about to lose a heartbreaker to the Eagles in overtime to fall to 6-6.
Yet here they are with the Bills riding a 5-game winning streak to win the AFC East back from Miami. The Steelers shook off an ugly 3-game losing streak, inserted 3rd-string quarterback Mason Rudolph into the starting job, and they have won 3 in a row to get to the playoffs after getting a little help from the Titans and Jaguars in Week 18.
But this game has one heck of a unique betting profile to it. The Bills are a 10-point home favorite, and the total is only 35 points. So, what is the play here?
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
The Unique Betting Line
Let’s take a moment to appreciate just how unique this betting line is. The closest game to it in the last decade happened earlier this year when the 49ers were a 9.5-point road favorite in Cleveland with a total of 35.5 points. The Browns infamously pulled off an upset win in a 19-17 final after the 49ers missed a game-winning field goal.
But a 9.5-point spread is still fundamentally different from a 10-point spread, which is notoriously among the hardest spreads to cover without a push as it usually means a team has to win by 13 or 14 points to do so. Not as many games end with 11 or 12-point victories.
A total of 35 points is also below average. Mixing the 2 together implies a very low score such as Buffalo winning 23-13. When you put it that way, this sounds reasonable, but the combination of a spread this big and a total this low is still rare.
In fact, you have to go back to Week 17 of the 2011 season to find the last NFL game with a spread of 10 or higher and a total of no more than 35.5 points. The 49ers were a 12.5-point favorite against the Rams with a total of 34.5 points. The 49ers (13-3), who were a much better team than the 2-win Rams, won 34-27.
A week earlier on Christmas Eve, those same Rams were a 10-point underdog with a total of 34 points in Pittsburgh, which rested injured quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers won 27-0. Clearly, there was something fishy about those Rams.
What happens in such a game between 2 playoff teams? That hasn’t happened since the 2009 season finale in a game between the Jets (-10) and Bengals with a total of 33.5 points. But even that deserves an asterisk because the Bengals voluntarily blew off the game by pulling starters, and the Jets had to win it just to secure a wild-card berth. The Jets won 37-0, then beat the Bengals with their starters in the wild card round a week later.
In the last 17 such games since 1990 between playoff teams, the over is 11-6. But note that the only game in that sample that was in the playoffs was the 2001 AFC Championship Game when the Steelers lost 24-17 to the Patriots, who were a 10-point underdog with a total of 35.5 points – the same line as this game. But New England won the game, one that saw Tom Brady leave before halftime with an injury, by scoring twice on special teams.
Must be a Pittsburgh thing. But we are looking at the over.
Josh Allen vs. Pittsburgh
These teams have met every year since 2019. Josh Allen is 3-1 against the Steelers, and since his breakout year in 2020 when Stefon Diggs joined the team, the last 3 meetings have featured 41, 39, and 41 points. Allen shredded Pittsburgh last year in a 38-3 win when he threw for a career-high 424 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Probably won’t be that kind of game this week, but Allen has a good feel for what Pittsburgh does on defense, and most importantly the Steelers are expected to be without superstar T.J. Watt (MCL).
Even with Watt, the Steelers have allowed 42, 48, and 45 points in their last 3 playoff games. Those efforts alone would take care of this over. Before last week’s heavy rain game in Baltimore against a lot of backups, the last 4 Pittsburgh games all went over 35 points.
Rudolph Puts Up More Than 3 Points, Right?
When the Steelers lost 38-3 in Buffalo last year, it was rookie Kenny Pickett’s 1st NFL start. He threw for over 300 yards, but the Steelers repeatedly stalled and could not get the ball in the end zone. This has been a problem throughout Pickett’s career, and Mason Rudolph has been playing better than Pickett ever has in Pittsburgh.
The Steelers even stacked 30-point games against the Bengals and Seahawks in Rudolph’s first 2 starts this year. He completed 18-of-20 passes in the pouring rain in Baltimore last week. He is playing legitimately well by making some aggressive choices that Pickett shies away from.
The Bills play very good defense and can force Rudolph into some mistakes, but with the talent at receiver and the way the running game has been producing for Pittsburgh, it’s not crazy at all for the Steelers to score around 16 points in this game.
In fact, Rudolph has led the Steelers to at least 16 points in 12-of-13 career starts.
The Pick
If you are worried about the weather, it figures to be cold (around 25 degrees), but so far, the wind report doesn’t sound extreme. Both teams are experienced at playing in these conditions and both would like to have a run game.
Take T.J. Watt out of the equation and the Steelers have the potential to allow close to 35 points if Allen comes out hot. But if there are turnovers, that can set up short fields and drive up scoring too.
The computer score looks good for a game that could surprise people expecting a Buffalo blowout. Also, 49 of Buffalo’s last 54 games (90.7%) have had at least 35 points scored, including every game this season except for the 14-9 win over the Giants.
Score Prediction: Bills 23 – Steelers 16
NFL Pick: Over 35 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Dallas Ready for a Long Playoff Run?
After finishing 12-5 for the 3rd year in a row, the Dallas Cowboys are looking for a deeper playoff run with a team that feels like the strongest yet for coach Mike McCarthy, who gets to face his former team from Green Bay.
The Packers (9-8) have grown from a 3-6 start to make the playoffs behind a strong 2nd half from young quarterback Jordan Love, who is also surrounded by many young receivers who have also developed from early in the year. The Packers are thriving offensively, but can the defense be trusted against Dak Prescott in Dallas?
The Cowboys are a 7.5-point home favorite with a total of 50.5 points. We are looking at the spread.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 04:30 PM ET at AT&T Stadium
Is Jordan Love a Cowboy Killer Like Aaron Rodgers?
The Cowboys and Packers have been meeting in big playoff games since the 1960s. Back then, it was Bart Starr in some of the biggest wins of his career for Green Bay, including the Ice Bowl. In the 1990s, Brett Favre had some of the toughest losses of his career in Dallas.
But Aaron Rodgers was a Cowboy killer, knocking off some of the best Dallas teams in the playoffs in 2014 and 2016. Even last season when Rodgers was at his worst in Green Bay, he led the Packers back from a 28-14 deficit in the 4th quarter to win 31-28 in overtime. That was the only game all season where the Packers had over 30 points and 400 yards of offense.
We will see how Jordan Love fares in his 1st game against the Cowboys, but he has led the Packers to over 400 yards in back-to-back weeks coming into this one. In fact, they are the only 400-yard games Green Bay has this year.
Love has 18 touchdowns to 1 interception in the last 8 games. You can make the case Dallas is the toughest defense he’ll have faced all year, especially in a road setting where Dallas is even stronger. The Cowboys have only allowed more than 20 points at home once this year in that 41-35 win over Seattle. Dallas has forced at least 1 turnover in every home game this year.
While the Packers only scored 17 points against Chicago last week, they also had just 7 possessions in that game, so they were very efficient in moving the ball. It is not unreasonable to think the Packers score over 20 points in this one given how well Love has been playing.
But is that enough against Dallas?
Dak Prescott: Yeah, Here We Go
This has been a career year for Dak Prescott, who led the NFL with 410 completions and 36 touchdown passes. He was a close No. 2 in QBR (72.6) behind Brock Purdy, and if not for the Dallas no-shows in San Francisco and Buffalo, you are probably looking at Dak as the MVP of the league this year.
His connection with CeeDee Lamb has never been better. Tight end Jake Ferguson has had a breakout year with 761 receiving yards. Brandin Cooks has come on down the stretch. But this is Dak’s offense now and he has never played at a higher level this consistently.
He gets a Green Bay defense with embattled coordinator Joe Barry, who has seen some really unheralded quarterbacks light up his defense this year. Bryce Young of the Panthers led his team to 30 points and threw for over 300 yards against the Packers before Carolina did not score a single point in the last 2 games to end the season.
Past Performances
Tommy DeVito of the Giants had a historic game against Green Bay, completing 80% of his passes, rushing for 70 yards, and taking no sacks or throwing any picks.
Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) had a perfect passer rating (158.3) against the Packers with 381 yards and 4 touchdowns in Week 15’s 34-20 win in Green Bay.
More than most defenses in the playoffs, the Packers just pray they get a sack on 3rd down or the opponent drops a pass or fumbles a drive away. But the Cowboys are not as mistake prone as some of the better offenses the Packers have snuck past this year such as Detroit (Week 12) and Kansas City.
Prescott also averages 9.7 yards per pass on 3rd downs, and the Cowboys convert at the 2nd-highest rate on 3rd down (48.3%) this season. Barry’s defense will have its hands full.
The Cowboys scored at least 27 points in 12 straight home games before their 20-19 win over Detroit in Week 17. That was the 3rd-longest streak in NFL history. It was a streak that started after the Lions held Dallas to 24 points last year.
The Packers are not the Lions. They are still a team held together by a quarterback with a defense that just hopes to not mess the game up too badly. Dallas is the better team on both sides of the ball.
The Pick
Dallas was up 14 points on this team last year, and this is a stronger version of the Cowboys. This is not a team that has blown multiple 14-point leads after halftime like last year nor is it a turnover-happy mess on offense. Prescott has been running the show masterfully, and his history against Green Bay has been strong. It’s been the defense letting down against Aaron Rodgers in the end that led to losses.
But this is a young quarterback in Love making his 1st road playoff start, which historically does not go well. Also, the Cowboys have won 9 games this year by at least 20 points, tied with the 1999 Rams for the 2nd most in NFL history. Only the undefeated 2007 Patriots (10) had more 20-point wins.
That doesn’t mean the Cowboys should win this game by 20 points. Love and the Green Bay offense has been playing too well for that. But while the Packers can get to 20 points, the Cowboys should get to 30 in this one, and we like the computer score enough to trust the Cowboys to cover this round at home for your NFL picks.
Score Prediction: Cowboys 30 – Packers 21
NFL Pick: Cowboys -7.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Matthew Stafford or Jared Goff? Why Not Both?
The NFL scriptwriters delivered with this one, pitting Matthew Stafford against his former team in what has been a dream season for the Detroit Lions, who have won 12 games and are hosting a playoff game for the 1st time since 1993.
The Lions are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 51.5 points. This has been a bad season for high totals going over, but with shaky defenses, great skill players, quarterbacks on hot streaks, and perfect conditions in the dome, why not root for a memorable shootout?
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Sunday, January 14, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Ford Field
Rams Come in Hot
Not many, if any, teams have been hotter than the Rams. They were 3-6 before the bye week, and they are 7-1 since with only a loss in Baltimore in overtime.
A big run from Stafford since the bye has been key to that. After a slow start to the year, Stafford has thrown 16 touchdowns over the last 7 games. He has basically improved his stats back to the level they were in 2021 when the Rams won the Super Bowl.
Helping him achieve this has been the trio of running back Kyren Williams and wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the new triplets in Los Angeles. Kupp was injured to start the season, and that’s when Nacua instantly made a name for himself as a rookie who went on to set new records for catches and receiving yards for a rookie. Williams was also injured in October and came back to start producing so consistently on the ground that he leads the NFL with 95.3 rushing yards per game.
LA’s OffenseÂ
When those skill players are together on the field with Stafford, you get an offense that scored at least 26 points in 6 straight games in Weeks 12-17. Stafford, Kupp, Williams, and some other key starters like Aaron Donald on defense got Week 18 off for playoff rest, but the team was still able to stay sharp with a comeback win in San Francisco. Nacua caught another touchdown on his record-setting day.
While improved from last season, the Lions only rank 23rd in scoring defense, and they have allowed at least 24 points in 9-of-17 games this year. This is a weird split that may not mean anything, but the Lions have played 5 games in prime time this year, and they never allowed more than 20 points in any of them (4-1 record). That includes some road trips to the Chiefs, Packers, and Cowboys. Eight of the 9 games where the Lions allowed 24 points were played in the early afternoon slot.
Again, that may mean absolutely nothing for this week, but that just felt like an interesting split you normally don’t see. The Lions have been pretty good under the lights, and we know Detroit will be riled up for this home playoff game.
But Sean McVay and Stafford have playoff experience, this team is clicking through the air and on the ground, and the offensive line has improved. The Rams should be able to score close to the range they’ve been consistently hitting during this run.
Jared Goff’s Big Chance
The last time we watched Jared Goff in a big game like this, he lost the Super Bowl 13-3 to the Patriots to end the 2018 season. But this is a big one for Goff as it would be a bad look to lose a home playoff game that means so much to Detroit to the quarterback the Rams replaced him with in 2021.
We last saw this matchup in 2021 when the Rams beat the Lions as a 16.5-point favorite, but they didn’t cover as the Lions lost 28-19 in Los Angeles. Goff played well until a late pick, which is a familiar story.
But the Lions have built a much better team in the ensuing years, and while Stafford has been hot down the stretch, you could argue Goff has been more consistent throughout the season in leading another strong offense.
That offense did suffer a blow in Week 18 when rookie tight end Sam LaPorta hyperextended his knee, so his chances of playing Sunday night are not great. That should mean more of Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was snubbed for the Pro Bowl as he has developed into an elite wide receiver. The Lions also have a great duo of running backs in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, and they have figured out how to make them co-exist in this offense, which also has a very good offensive line.
The Rams are still led by Donald on defense, but it is hard to call this a good unit. They rank in the bottom half of the league in most defensive categories, and they have only forced multiple takeaways in 2-of-17 games this year. Takeaways are always the main concern with Goff as we’ve seen him throw 3 picks against Chicago and fumble 3 times against Green Bay in home games earlier this year. But when he’s protecting the ball, the Lions are usually scoring at a high clip.
The Lions have scored at least 20 points in 19 of their last 20 home games. They have hit 25 points in 17 of their last 20 home games too.
The Pick
This season has been rough for high-scoring games when people were expecting a high-scoring game. In 2023, games with a total of at least 50 points have seen the under go 11-1. The only game that went over was in Week 4 when the Bills beat Miami 48-20. Their rematch last week with bigger playoff implications ended 21-14.
In games with a total of at least 49 points, the under is still 16-4. Hard to argue with 80% success rate.
But what happens when you match a couple of the better offenses and weaker defenses in this year’s playoff field? It just feels like a game that should have numerous touchdowns from the big-name players.
The over is 11-6 in Detroit games this year, tied for the highest rate in the league. The over is 6-2 in Detroit home games this year too. Since Dan Campbell has been the coach in 2021, the over is 9-3 when Detroit is a home favorite, the highest hit rate in the league.
The computer supports it, so let’s go with the fun pick and take this over.
Score Prediction: Lions 27 – Rams 25
NFL Pick: Over 51.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
