Top-rated sportsbooks have released their WNBA odds for tonight’s action.
The WNBA’s in-season tournament, the Commissioner’s Cup, continues tonight with the Liberty playing the Mystics and the Valkyries playing the Mercury.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Mystics and Mercury.
The Picks
- Mystics +13.5 (-110)
- Mercury -5.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 07:30 PM EDT at CareFirst Arena
Too Good to Be True
The Liberty look like the obvious play for this game because they just played at Washington on May 30 and dismantled the Mystics in that game by 22 points.
With the Liberty favored by 13.5 points, it seems perfectly reasonable to bet on them tonight.
However, this line of thought relies on two mistakes: one, it ignores the sheer amount of variety that takes place from one game to the next that is evident in the different score lines. Two, it ignores a common category of reason that creates different score lines in rematches: this category is psychological.
For psychological reasons, the Liberty — because they obviously know that they just blew out the Mystics; they know this as well as bettors do and cannot simply forget what transpired — will fail to cover the spread.
Let-Down Spot
The evidence underpinning my assertion that the Liberty are in a let-down spot tonight was visible last year and, as they are led by the same coach who apparently does not know how to prepare them better for this sort of rematch situation, extends into this year.
Numerous examples show what I mean. Last year, for example, they won at these very Mystics by 16 before beating them at home by only five in their first rematch.
This year, on May 27, they beat Golden State by 28. Two days later, they beat the Valkyries by all of five points.
Clearly, they reliably decline dramatically in rematches against teams that they had blown out in their first meeting.
This is apparent across various sorts of matchups. In these matchups, against different teams like Washington and Golden State, the Liberty had all sorts of matchup-specific edges in the first meeting that they then failed to actualize in the rematch.
Takeaway
It is easy to look at the recent meeting between these teams and to explain in matchup terms why the Liberty are so superior to the Mystics.
But, for the Liberty in this sort of rematch scenario, psychological factors trump matchup factors.
WNBA Pick: Mystics +13.5 (-110) at Bet365
Golden State Valkyries vs. Phoenix Mercury
Thursday, June 05, 2025 – 10:00 PM EDT at PHX Arena
Golden State’s Big Problem
The Valkyries lack the offensive firepower to keep pace with teams that can readily score.
Golden State’s offense is objectively horrendous. The Valkyries have the second-worst offense, as measured by offensive rating.
They lack a reliable go-to scorer who they can count on every night. Hence, they have three different players who co-lead the team in points. Nobody on their team averages more than twelve points per game.
Lack of Shooting
Part of their problem is that they are easy to guard. In basketball, a half-court offense becomes dangerous when it has effective three-point shooters. These create good spacing for their offense by forcing defenders to extend to the perimeter in an attempt to mitigate the danger that they pose from behind the arc.
When an offense lacks three-point shooters, the space that the opposing team’s defense has to worry about shrinks significantly, making life very easy for it.
Phoenix’s Interior Defense
Because Phoenix won’t have to worry about this Golden State team, that converts less than 28 percent of its three-point attempts, succeeding from deep, the quality of Phoenix’s interior defense becomes immensely important.
I like the Mercury’s defense in this matchup because they are one of the better teams at limiting field goal makes inside the arc.
They will prevent Golden State’s offense from thriving in the spaces where it needs to be able to thrive.
The Mercury have one of the best defenses overall and will have no problem limiting the Valkyries.
Phoenix’s Bounce-Back Spot
To cover the spread, Golden State will need the game to be very low-scoring. However, the Mercury offense is in a great bounce-back spot.
When they scored 68 points against Washington, the Mercury responded by amassing 94 points against Chicago.
After mustering 71 points against Minnesota, they scored 85 points at Los Angeles.
One must expect them to amass a large point total after their offense struggles, which it did in their last game.
Mercury Firepower
The Mercury offense goes where top scorer Satou Sabally goes.
Phoenix’s best offensive outputs tend to come in games where Sabally has a great performance.
Fortunately for the Mercury, her outlook is great in this game for matchup-specific reasons.
Sabally commonly has awesome outputs because she is a versatile scorer who likes to attack after facing the basket but is also effective in the low post.
She has good handles who ably reaches the basket or pulls up for a shot inside the arc where she primarily likes to operate.
The success of similar players creates a strong outlook for her tonight.
For example, Napheesa Collier is likewise a versatile forward who is not primarily known for her three-point shooting, and she just dominated the Valkyries in her team’s eleven-point win against them.
Breanna Stewart is built even more similarly to Sabally than Collier is. Both Stewart and Collier are 6’4 and around 170 pounds. Stewart also dominated Golden State inside when she scored 24 points in her team’s 28-point win against the Valkyries.
Takeaway
Offenses thrive against Golden State when they have strong inside scoring power. Phoenix has that in the form of All-Star selection Sabally. The Mercury offense is anyhow in a strong bounce-back spot.
Golden State lacks the firepower with its awful shooting and absence of a go-to scorer to keep pace with Phoenix tonight.
WNBA Pick: Mercury -5.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
