Pick Summary
- Vipers vs. Roughnecks: Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Guardians vs. Brahmas: Under 39 (-110) at Bet365
- Renegades vs. Defenders: Defenders -8.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Sea Dragons vs. Battlehawks: Battlehawks -1 (-110) at BetMGM
With two weeks left to go in the XFL regular season, Week 8 was a wild one with two overtime games, and all four games were decided by a total of 9 points. The Week 9 schedule is yet another one that builds to the best game of the weekend on Sunday afternoon when the Sea Dragons (5-3) face the Battlehawks (6-2).
We made our top picks for each game, and you can find XFL betting markets at many of our best sportsbooks.
Vegas Vipers vs. Houston Roughnecks
Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 12:30 PM EDT at TDECU Stadium
Kicking things off early this Saturday afternoon, the Houston Roughnecks (5-3) are a 6.5-point home favorite with a total of 43.5 points.
Teams Analysis
Despite rushing for 208 yards and leading 17-8 late in the fourth quarter, the Vipers were unable to get the passing game going last week in a 21-17 overtime loss to St. Louis. Meanwhile, Houston was victorious in overtime in a low-scoring 17-15 battle with San Antonio, the worst offense in the XFL.
The Vipers continue to struggle at 2-6 despite some decent offensive stats on the season. Vegas (7.0) is still one of only two offenses to average at least 7.0 yards per pass this season. But giving up a long touchdown on a fake punt doomed them last week. The offense is not likely to score a ton on a Houston defense that stepped up after a couple down games.
But that Houston offense is still faltering since the 4-0 start. Quarterback Brandon Silvers completed just 17-of-36 passes for 146 yards in the win over San Antonio. Maybe worse, the run game had just 13 carries for 25 yards. It was an abysmal offensive showcase with 162 yards despite the win.
The Pick
In matching these teams, the under feels like the best bet with neither a lock to reach 20 points. Vegas’ last three games have not gone over 38 points. The last 3-of-4 games for Houston have been under 40 combined points.
XFL Pick: Under 43.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Orlando Guardians vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Alamodome
The Guardians (1-7) are a 1.5-point road underdog against the Brahmas (2-6) in a game between the worst teams in the XFL with a total of 39.5 points.
Can Orlando really go a full season with only one win against the undefeated DC Defenders? That would be wild, and it is still easily the upset of the season, but the Guardians are two more losses away from doing just that. San Antonio continues to struggle too after a 17-15 loss in overtime to Houston.
Teams Analysis
While the Guardians have corrected some of their offensive flaws by benching failed quarterback Paxton Lynch, the Brahmas are still dead last by a wide margin in yards per pass (4.3) and next to last in yards per run (3.5).
In eight games this season, San Antonio has not scored more than 15 points in any of them except for the 30-12 win over Orlando in Week 2 when the Guardians were playing very poor football.
This game should be much closer thanks to the improved quarterback play for Orlando from Quinten Dormady. He threw for over 300 yards last week but was intercepted twice.
The Pick
With the Guardians only scoring 16 points last week and 12 the last time against San Antonio, we will take our chances with the under 39.5 being the best bet for your XFL picks in this game.
XFL Pick: Under 39 (-110) at Bet365
Arlington Renegades vs. DC Defenders
Sunday, April 16, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Audi Field
The DC Defenders (7-1) return home to defend their best record as an 8.5-point favorite against the Arlington Renegades (4-4) with a total of 41.5 points.
Teams Analysis
No win came easy in the XFL last week, but DC continues to have the best, most balanced offensive attack in the league and showed it again in the 34-33 road win over Seattle. The running game has been less dominant in recent weeks, but quarterback Jordan Ta’amu still passed for 247 yards and 4 touchdown passes.
But the defense had to come up with a game-saving stop on a 2-point conversion run in the final minute to hold up the latest victory.
The Renegades were able to hold on for an 18-16 win over Orlando. Luis Perez was solid with 190 passing yards despite no touchdown passes. Orlando had 10 more first downs than Arlington but lost the turnover battle 5-3.
The Defenders have scored at least 28 points in six straight games, and at least 32 points in 5-of-6 games coming in.
The Pick
This is the only meeting between these teams this season, but it is hard to see Arlington keeping up with DC’s No. 1 offense to keep it close. After so many close finishes last week, let’s take a bigger spread here and go with the Defenders to cover.
XFL Pick: Defenders -8.5 (-110) at Bet365
Seattle Sea Dragons vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Sunday, April 16, 2023 – 03:00 PM EDT at The Dome at America’s Center
They saved the best game for last again as the Seattle Sea Dragons (5-3) are a 1-point underdog against the St. Louis Battlehawks (6-2) with a total of 46 points.
Teams Analysis
We are going to assume AJ McCarron is the quarterback for St. Louis this week. He missed last week’s game to rest his shoulder injury for the bigger games, and the offense certainly struggled with Nick Tiano, who averaged 5.7 yards per pass and threw two picks. A brilliant call for a fake punt touchdown saved the day for St. Louis in an overtime win.
As for Seattle, the Sea Dragons fell to the Defenders at home after Ben DiNucci was stopped on a late 2-point conversion run in a 34-33 loss. This is still a very good team, but that snapped its 5-game winning streak.
This is really a battle for the second-best team behind the Defenders, and you should back St. Louis at home with a rested McCarron. On a per-play basis, McCarron averages more first downs, touchdowns, and fewer turnovers than DiNucci.
The Pick
In a game that could be razor close, could those 2-point conversions be decisive again? St. Louis has converted 8 of them this year while the Sea Dragons only have a pair. We will take the Battlehawks to get the home win and cover.
XFL Pick: Battlehawks -1 (-110) at BetMGM
