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This will come as a shock to some folks who believed their mothers when she said the sun shined out of their backsides, but many bettors are making avoidable mistakes when placing wagers on the NCAA Tournament, especially during the Sweet 16 of Elite 8 rounds.
Readers who are willing to learn and increase their knowledge to add to their arsenal of weaponry required to beat the top sportsbooks, read on. Those of you who believed your mommies, well, you probably already quit reading.
1) Only Bet What You Know
Staying within your personal realm of experience with and observations of teams in the Big Dance really begins in the first round, but it’s still a very good rule for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Simply put: If you don’t know anything about both teams in a given matchup, then treat the game as a no-play and save your bankroll for a game between teams that you have been following since November.
It is impossible to watch all 362 teams in action during a given season; just following one conference can be daunting enough. But it is imperative that bettors learn rotations, stay up to date on injury news and perhaps most importantly, know a team’s defensive strengths and weaknesses.
This knowledge and understanding cannot be limited to just one team in the clash. Knowing all one can about Team A is useless if a bettor doesn’t balance that with the same info for Team B.
2) Don’t Let Cinderella’s Beauty Blind You
There have been many adaptations of the Cinderella fairy tale over the years, and the only thing those variations have in common is they are all still just fairy tales.
Everyone loves an underdog, and now that we’ve seen No. 16 seeds take down No. 1 seeds at recent NCAA Tournaments, expectations for the lower seeds have reached almost unrealistic proportions.
Those expectations really jumped up and bit a lot of bettors during the first two rounds of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Of the 32 games played in Round 1, only seven double-digit seeds advanced to the second round.
All but one of those seven was sent home in the Round of 32 when favorites won 15 of the 16 games outright and went 11-5 against the NCAAB odds. All eight of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds survived to make up half of the Sweet 16.
While Cinderella did end up with the Prince, it’s important to remember that her evil step-sisters also attended the dance. Mean and ugly still beats cute and charming on the hardwood.
3) Geography & Traveling Plans
They still teach geography in college, right? Then why do so many bettors ignore the subject when it comes time to betting the NCAA Tournament?
You can bet your bottom dollar the oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook are well-versed in the subject matter, and the selection committee is as well, given how they place the higher seeds in venues close to home to give those teams the advantage they earned.
Along with knowing where the games are being played, especially regional action in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, it helps to know if a team has a loyal group of fans willing to travel across the country to cheer their teams on.
Schools like Nebraska, Texas A&M and BYU have fans show up if the game is down the street or clear across the Lower 48. Just more information that discerning bettors need to know.
4) Mind the Props
Old black-&-white WWII movies always seem to have that one scene where the star pilot hollers out from the cockpit of his B-24 Liberator, “Clear!” The engines crank, the props spin and nobody gets hurt thanks to his warning.
It’s also a good warning to keep in mind when thinking about prop bets. In some ways, we go through some of the props – will the stud guard score 20+, or will the 7-foot center pull down 10+ rebounds? – when formulating our college basketball picks.
However, a lot of prop plays are nothing more than the candy and gum that is conveniently located near the checkout counters, hoping to entice shoppers into an impulse buy.
And they’re especially dangerous when a lovely young lady batting her eyelashes in tight pants is discussing her play on the TV screen. Look at it this way: If some ugly dude was giving you the same play, would you be as interested?
5) Never Bet More than You can Afford to Lose
There are really only two rules in gambling:
- The odds are always in the house’s favor.
- Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Just because it’s tournament time doesn’t mean a bettor can throw out all of the rules that got them to the dance with a bankroll to play with. Be disciplined and stay within your means, because the rent is still due on the first of next month.
