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The 2024 NFL schedule release will happen soon in May. Then it’s just a matter of 2 months before training camps open. However, that schedule release can be a great way to inform your futures bets on the upcoming NFL season.
Even though we know the opponents each team will be facing this year, the schedule will tell us the sequence of the games, the rest factor for each team going into the game, if it will be in prime time or early in the afternoon, and we can even make some weather considerations for outdoor games based on the month they are scheduled.
Below, we looked at 3 ways you can take advantage of the NFL schedule release for your futures bets at top-rated sportsbooks.
Use the Schedule To Inform Your Season Win Totals Bets
The NFL schedule release can be used to inform your futures bets on a team’s season win total. In a 17-game season, a team can go through multiple phases that make it feel like a tale of 2 or 3 seasons in one. The strength of the schedule during those phases is often the reason for that.
Three of the things one should be looking for in the schedule include:
- “Easy starts” to a season could be good for a team hitting its over in season wins (i.e. schedules front-loaded with non-playoff teams from last year, rookie quarterbacks who may struggle early, rookie coaches figuring things out, etc.)
- Tough finishes to a season could lead to a team hitting its under in season wins (i.e. schedules backloaded with contenders that could be difficult for the team to navigate, especially after the war of attrition sets in with injuries to key players).
- Brutal stretches of tough opponents could derail a team’s season (i.e. how the 2023 Eagles had a 5-game stretch against the Cowboys, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys where they progressively got worse and started to collapse for the season).
NFL teams can gain or lose confidence very quickly in a season depending on how things start. The Giants are a good example of this. They had a surprise playoff season in 2022 thanks to a 6-1 start that was built on a bunch of close wins, and they got a little fortunate that some of their opponents (Titans and Packers) were not as good in 2022 as they were in 2021 when they were top seeds.
Still, in 2023, the Giants had to open with road games in San Francisco, Miami and Buffalo while also hosting 2022 playoff teams Seattle and Dallas. They started 1-5 and were buried for the season (under 7.5 wins hit easily) despite playing close to .500 ball the rest of the way. That brutal start tanked them.
Timing is Everything
However, you can get an easier start too with the right opponents.
Rookie quarterbacks notoriously struggle, but you can also gain an edge over a young quarterback or someone in a new system too. We saw this last year when Jordan Love was way better in the 2nd half of the season for Green Bay in his 1st year as a starter, and Derek Carr didn’t get comfortable in New Orleans until December when it was too late.
In the end, unpredictable injuries are the chaotic factor that can throw apart any schedule analysis. What looks like a brutal schedule in May could turn out to be an easy one if you catch a team at the right time with injuries. Think of how the Steelers seem to keep facing backup quarterbacks (Jake Browning twice last year instead of Joe Burrow) in large quantities to help keep Mike Tomlin’s non-losing season streak alive.
The NFL is a league that’s about who you play, but when you play them is also very important.
To give you some advantage on this upcoming betting season, we have listed below the NFL odds for the next Super Bowl.
| The Elite | The Contenders | The Pretenders | The Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers +550 | Cowboys +1700 | Bears +4500 | Saints +8000 |
| Chiefs +625 | Packers +2000 | Jaguars +4500 | Vikings +8000 |
| Ravens +950 | Dolphins +2400 | Colts +5000 | Broncos +10000 |
| Lions +1200 | Chargers +2500 | Steelers +5000 | Giants +12500 |
| Texans +1200 | Jets +2500 | Buccaneers +7000 | Patriots +12500 |
| Bengals +1300 | Falcons +2800 | Seahawks +7000 | Commanders +12500 |
| Bills +1400 | Rams +3000 | Cardinals +8000 | Titans +15000 |
| Eagles +1700 | Browns +4000 | Raiders +8000 | Panthers +25000 |
Division Futures Decided in Week 18
Some divisions are very competitive and will not be decided until the final week of the regular season. We saw this happen in 2023 with the AFC East, NFC East, AFC South and NFC South. That’s half the league. When you have a division that figures to go down to the wire, knowing the schedule for that final weekend can be very useful.
For example, we know the Buffalo Bills have owned the Miami Dolphins during Josh Allen’s career. Allen was 9-2 against Miami going into 2023, which produced another sweep of Miami to improve that record to 11-2.
However, with the schedule showing a Buffalo game in Miami in Week 18 to possibly decide the AFC East, that would have been a reason to favor the Bills for the division title. We also knew from 2022 that Mike McDaniel’s team did very poorly against good teams, which also continued in 2023.
It took a Buffalo rally from a 6-6 stat, but sure enough that game in Week 18 was the regular season finale, and the Bills prevailed 21-14 to win the AFC East.
Division Deciders
Over in the NFC East, the Cowboys just had to beat Washington in Week 18, a team they have owned in Dak Prescott’s career. Meanwhile, the Eagles had a game with the Giants, who have given them some problems over the years. Still, the Giants pulled off the upset while Dallas won easily, allowing the Cowboys to win the NFC East as Philadelphia collapsed to end the season.
Remember, no one has won the NFC East in consecutive seasons since the Eagles in 2001-04. But beyond looking at the final game of the season, the schedule can also show you who gets the rematch at home later in the season.
While Dallas lost to the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 9, that was when the Eagles were playing better. Dallas had the key rematch in Week 14 on a Sunday night and they stomped the collapsing Eagles 33-13.
So, it’s not just beneficial to see who gets home field in Week 18 for a division race, but a late December rematch could also be useful in figuring out at sharp sportsbooks which team is going to pull away in a division that should be close.
Most Value Player Bets
Finally, futures bets for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player (MVP) award must now take into consideration the schedule, especially the prime-time schedule late in the season with the games that will have the most eyeballs watching.
The MVP races in 2021 and 2023 were 2 of the worst in modern history in terms of someone having a commanding, deserving lead for the award. In the end, both year’s MVP awards were won by default by the candidate who did the least to ruin their chances. In both cases, a prime-time flop by a leading quarterback candidate opened the door for the eventual winner to walk through.
In 2021, the NFL’s MVP race was bouncing around from everyone to Matthew Stafford (just joined the Rams) to Josh Allen (after the Bills won 38-20 in Kansas City) to Kyler Murray (Cardinals started 7-0) to eventually landing in Tom Brady’s control with Tampa Bay.
However, in a Week 15 Sunday Night Football game at home, Brady had one of his worst games as he took 4 sacks and threw an interception in a 9-0 loss to the Saints, who were not even going to the playoffs.
That shutout in prime time late in the season while Brady led the MVP odds was disastrous to his campaign. Meanwhile, 2020 MVP Aaron Rodgers started his 2021 season with a terrible game against the Saints where he lost 38-3 and threw 2 interceptions in one of his worst career games. However, that was a Week 1 game buried in the Sunday afternoon schedule that barely anyone watched.
Rodgers finished the season strong, only threw 2 picks after Week 1 the rest of the way and ended up winning his 4th MVP over Brady that year. It wouldn’t have been possible without that shutout loss by Brady in prime time to a New Orleans team that had his number in Tampa.
It Doesn’t Get Better
Last year, the MVP race was an even bigger mess.
Jalen Hurts played one of his worst games of the season against Kansas City and his MVP odds improved over Patrick Mahomes just because the Eagles won the game after a dropped touchdown by Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the final minutes.
Still, Hurts and the Eagles collapsed from there. Then it was Dak Prescott’s chance to shine for Dallas, and he bombed in a big loss in Buffalo. That set up Brock Purdy for MVP. Purdy had the stats all year long, but people didn’t want to believe it because of the Kyle Shanahan effect and all the talent the 49ers had.
However, on Christmas night in Week 16, the 49ers hosted the Ravens on a Monday night game that looked like a battle between the No. 1 seeds. Lamar Jackson was in the MVP race all year but he was more like the 3rd or 4th candidate instead of the leader.
In that game, Purdy threw 4 interceptions in front of the nation on a big holiday, and Jackson played well in a 33-19 win for the Ravens. That sunk Purdy’s MVP case right there, setting up Jackson, who put it away with 5 touchdown passes the following week against Miami.
But anyone pretending Jackson was the MVP all along is rewriting the narrative. He didn’t jump into the favorite position until Purdy threw that pick parade for Christmas. In the end, Jackson received 49-of-50 1st-place votes for MVP and won his 2nd MVP award of his career.
Quarterback-driven award
We know the MVP is inherently a quarterback-driven award handed out to someone on a very good team that wins 12-plus games. But lately, the NFL has gotten to be such a week-to-week league that it’s getting hard for a quarterback to statistically dominate for months at a time and have a slam-dunk case for MVP like Dan Marino in 1984 or Peyton Manning in 2004 and 2013. Those seasons are rarities and perhaps increasingly so if 2021 and 2023 are any indication.
That is why the schedule release should be a big part of your analysis for MVP futures. We know the Texans are playing in Kansas City this year, so a road win for C.J. Stroud over Patrick Mahomes would be big for his MVP case as a top candidate for 2024.
Yet, what if the game is at 4:25 in Week 3 on CBS? Even a big statement win for Stroud and the Texans there would have a hard time carrying momentum into January when the vote is submitted for the awards.
Also, what if the game is a Sunday night event in Week 16 with control of the No. 1 seed on the line? In that case, a win and a big game from Stroud will carry more weight with voters than it would have in Week 3. Fair or not, that’s just how people are seeing awards like this these days. That also could be a statement game for Mahomes in that case, but we’ll see where the NFL sticks it in the schedule.
Remember, pay attention to the late-season games between MVP contenders, and put an emphasis on when it’s scheduled for prime time, as those games get the most viewers and do the most to change the narrative and ultimately the MVP race.
The MVP is very much a narrative-driven award in a season where no one is statistically crushing the field.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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