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A common question about college sports is the impact of NIL money being given to players. That has partially changed all college sports, as the top money-generating schools with the deepest pockets to play the players they choose to pursue. Those with lesser means (the David’s) cannot compete with the larger programs (the Goliaths).
Once again this shows that trickle-down economics is a failed myth, as even the Vanderbilt’s and Northwestern’s are having an increasingly harder time keeping pace in their respective conferences.
The NIL money was able to explode because of the transfer rule changes, where the players could be hired to do a job and be well-compensated.
The landscape has certainly changed but how much does it affect wagering activities?
The Impact of NIL on Futures
In truth, the money flows from groups that will pay players for their – name, image, and likeness (NIL) – and are involved in various business enterprises which the businesses they own or partnered with can compensate players to build further the brands they care to support.
What this means on the football side is a few select players could make a million or more dollars, the group just below hundreds of thousands and the rest thousands if they are at the right universities.
College football at the highest levels is about having the best players. Ohio State reports they are paying football players 20 million dollars this season. That is considered the largest amount for this upcoming season, though not every school has to disclose those reports.
Though there is a correlation between transfer and NIL money spent, it is not a one-for-one ratio. Nonetheless, when looking at how this last transfer period worked out, here are the winners of the portals according to 247Sports.
| Rank | Team | Total | 5-Stars | 4-Stars | 3-Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ole Miss | 24 Commits | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Oregon | 14 Commits | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Alabama | 15 Commits | 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 28 Commits | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Florida | 15 Commits | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Texas | 11 Commits | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Florida State | 17 Commits | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 8 | Colorado | 42 Commits | 2 | 8 | 32 |
| 9 | Ohio State | 7 Commits | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Miami-FL | 15 Commits | 0 | 6 | 9 |
One can safely assume that all ten of these squads would be on a list of Top 25 spenders for compensation on their football roster, considering those that stayed and new editions.
To be fair, the impact is baked into the odds at the sportsbooks on a continual basis. Yet, in looking at FanDuel on Jan.4, 2024, and DraftKings on July 31, there were alternations.
- Ole Miss +2600 to $1500
- Ohio State +600 to +400
Some like Alabama, Florida State and Texas A&M actually went backwards, but that is believed because of others attracting more betting attention, rather than these football programs not being considered as strong.
Opening Weeks Odds Largely Unaffected by NIL or Transfer Portal
Because the transfer portal was settled right after spring football practices, the betting on Weeks 0 and 1 would have all elements already taken into consideration by the oddsmakers.
However, that doesn’t mean NIL does not have a large impact on portions of college football.
Top Talent Stripped from Smaller Conferences
Those coaching in the MAC, Sun Belt, and to a lesser degree Conference USA, are seeing their best players from the previous year moving on to larger programs for money or draft status.
Not only does the money matter but so does the exposure of being on television more frequently.
Many of these players might have been overlooked by height, weight, or similar other factors for their positions and either got bigger and stronger or they were a bit of a late bloomer and now appeal to the better football programs.
That’s had a major impact on the MAC as a whole and certain schools in the SBC and C-USA. With little TV revenue and dramatically lesser budgets for football, these conferences, and likely the Mountain West and the American Conference, will serve as a farm system for the Big 4 to swoop in and take the top talent with the money they can throw around. That is the downside for those of us who bet games from all of college football.
NIL money is here to stay. There is talk of taking it from the Wild, Wild West to having more constraints, which would help college football’s product overall.
