The NFL’s divisional round weekend has both No. 1 seeds (Chiefs and Eagles) hosting games on Saturday, then two marquee matchups on Sunday between the Bengals vs. Bills and Cowboys vs. 49ers. We are looking at our favorite prop picks that we found using the OddsTrader app for the divisional round games in the NFL.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, January 21, 2023 – 04:30 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Christian Kirk (Jacksonville Jaguars)
- Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
Win or lose this Saturday, Christian Kirk has already won this season. The detractors made fun of the contract he received from the Jaguars in free agency, but he has been a legit No. 1 receiver for a team that is in the divisional round of the playoffs.
Kirk already has 10 games this season where he has gone over 70 yards, including a 105-yard game against the Chiefs where he also caught two touchdowns. He has been big down the stretch in must-win games against the Titans (99 yards and a touchdown) and Chargers (78 yards and a touchdown).
It gets overlooked because of Patrick Mahomes and the 14-3 record, but the Chiefs have been low-key terrible against No. 1 receiving weapons this season. Look at some of the single-game stat lines posted against this Kansas City defense:
- Stefon Diggs (Bills): 148 yards, touchdown
- Davante Adams (Raiders): 124 yards, 2 touchdowns (Week 5) and 73 yards (Week 18)
- Mike Williams (Chargers): 113 yards, touchdown
- Christian Kirk (Jaguars): 105 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Mike Evans (Buccaneers): 103 yards, 2 touchdowns
- Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals): 97 yards
- Keenan Allen (Chargers): 94 yards
- D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks): 81 yards
- Jerry Jeudy (Broncos): 73 yards, 3 touchdowns
- Michael Pittman (Colts): 72 yards
The Pick
The Chiefs have allowed 20 receivers to go over 62.5 receiving yards this season. Look for Kirk to likely do that a second time against them in this game where the Jaguars should be expected to throw frequently to keep pace with the MVP.
You can find some value for your NFL picks by using the OddsTrader BetStation to shop around this one. Several books, including BetMGM, are offering Kirk’s line at 62.5 while the others are up to 65.5.
NFL Prop Pick: Christian Kirk Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-118) at BetMGM
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Saturday, January 21, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
- Over 44.5 Rushing Yards
It was one decade ago in the 2012 NFC divisional round when San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick set an NFL record with 181 rushing yards. That record still stands today. A year later after losing the Super Bowl, Kaepernick would also have playoff games with 98 and 130 rushing yards.
Why bring up Kaepernick in relation to Daniel Jones? There is a thought out there that quarterbacks who can run, which Jones can, are more likely to put it all on the line in the postseason where there is no next game if you lose.
It is hard to say if we saw some of that with Jones last week in his first playoff game, but his 17 runs were five more than he’s ever had in his first 54 games in the NFL. Even if we remove his four kneel-downs at the end of each half, he still had a career-high 13 runs for over 80 yards.
His Famous Run Against Eagles
Jones has four games in his career with over 90 rushing yards, including two this season. But the most famous play of his career was in 2020 against the Eagles in a prime-time game. Jones took off right down the middle of the field for what looked like an 88-yard touchdown run. The announcer even said he was “gone” when he still had 40 yards to go for the score.
Then it happened. Jones tripped over his own feet in the open field and came up 8 yards short of the end zone. The Giant Stumble would live in infamy as the most memorable play of his career unless he does something else. The Giants still scored a touchdown on the drive but went on to lose the game.
The Pick
How fitting would it be if Jones had another signature run as part of a big rushing day in this one to upset the No. 1 seed Eagles at home?
Maybe the Giants lack the firepower or defensive prowess to pull that off this Saturday, but Jones’ legs are a factor, and he needs to use them as much as possible against a defense that had 70 sacks this year.
Trust Jones to run often and pick up over 44.5 yards on the ground in this one.
NFL Prop Pick: Daniel Jones Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (-113) at BetRivers
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Gabriel Davis (Buffalo Bills)
- Over 57.5 Receiving Yards
Teams with playoff success in NFL history are no strangers to having a No. 2 receiver step up in big games, sometimes even dwarfing the accomplishments of the No. 1 receiver.
We have seen it with the 1970s Steelers (John Stallworth and Lynn Swann), when John Taylor caught the game-winning touchdown in the Super Bowl instead of Jerry Rice for the 49ers, when David Givens caught a touchdown in seven playoff games in a row for the 2000s Patriots, and when Reggie Wayne eclipsed Marvin Harrison’s production for the 2000s Colts.
A good No. 2 matters, and Gabe Davis in Buffalo has been big in his last three playoff games with touchdowns and big plays, including 113 yards and a touchdown against Miami last week.
Davis has only gone over 57.5 yards in 6-of-16 games this year, but almost all of them have been marquee games like opening night against the Rams, the Week 6 showdown with the Chiefs in Arrowhead where he caught four touchdowns last postseason, and he also had a 93-yard effort in the crazy loss to Minnesota in Week 10.
The Pick
We are still waiting to see what a Bills-Bengals game looks like in the 2020s as this could be another big AFC rivalry to go along with these teams’ battles with the Chiefs. But if Stefon Diggs is not dominant this week, then maybe the Bills will be just fine as long as Playoff Gabe Davis shows up once again.
NFL Prop Pick: Gabriel Davis Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium
Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys)
- Over 41.5 Receiving Yards
Schultz has been the leading receiver in Dallas’ last two playoff games. He had 95 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers last week in his best game of the season.
But people probably forget Schultz had seven catches and 89 receiving yards to lead all receivers in the Wild Card loss last season against the 49ers. He had the only play to gain over 25 yards for Dallas that day.
The 49ers are a stingy defense this year against tight ends, but this looks like a reasonably low number for an important part of the Dallas offense that Dak Prescott clearly trusts. Schultz has gone over 41.5 yards in 8-of-16 games this year, and 8-of-12 if you count only the full games he played with Prescott as his quarterback.
The Pick
CeeDee Lamb is going to have to step up after catching one ball against the 49ers last postseason. But with Michael Gallup still not very productive in this offense after his injury, Schultz really is the next-best option, and he could even be the No. 1 option for Dallas again on Sunday. Trust him in this one.
You can find the best value by using Bet365, which is offering its line at 41.5 yards at the best juice. Other top sportsbooks are up to 45.5 on the tight end with worse odds to boot. Bet accordingly.
NFL Prop Pick: Dalton Schultz Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
