In Super Bowl LVII, we have the No. 1 offense of the Kansas City Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes, against the No. 1 pass defense of the Philadelphia Eagles, led by a pass rush with 70 sacks. But we also have the No. 3 scoring team in the Eagles taking on a Kansas City defense that has been average at best for most of the season.
Does that factor into your prop bets in a Super Bowl with a projected total of 51 points at many of the top sportsbooks?
We have narrowed down our seven favorite player props for Super Bowl LVII. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles.
We found the best prices available for these props using the OddsTrader BetStation. If you want to use the app, you simply have to visit your mobile device’s app store and download it for free to get computer-generated predictions on the NFL and other leagues.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Over 295.5 Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes has his work cut out for him in this matchup, but he did just throw for 326 yards against the Bengals in the AFC Championship Game in very cold conditions. He will feel nice and warm inside Arizona’s stadium where he threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns in Week 1 against the Cardinals.
Much better defense this time, but the Eagles have not been tested by many good quarterbacks this season. Kyler Murray (250 yards) and Dak Prescott (347 yards) are the only quarterbacks to pass for 225 yards against these Eagles, but Mahomes usually shows up to the stadium with 225 in the bucket.
He has 12 games with at least 292 passing yards this season, including 11 games with at least 320 passing yards.
The Eagles are No. 5 in yards per drive allowed this season. In his career, Mahomes is 11-4 against top 5 defenses in yards per drive, and he averages 320.7 passing yards per game against them with seven 300-yard passing games.
The Chiefs have some wide receiver injuries, but it is sounding like everyone but Mecole Hardman should play, and the Chiefs have played much of this season without Hardman. They also still have Travis Kelce, so Mahomes should be good to go here with no injury designation for his ankle.
The Pick
Most game scripts favor Mahomes passing often, whether it is a shootout or him trying to catch up. The Eagles have not looked great defensively against the few legitimate offenses they have faced this year, so Mahomes going over should be a good bet for this Super Bowl.
Using the OddsTrader BetStation, we see that BetRivers has Mahomes’ over at the best number at 290.5 while most other sportsbooks are showing 295.5 and at worse odds to the bettor.
NFL Prop Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 290.5 Passing Yards (-112) at BetRivers
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles)
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Hurts has nine games with over 1.5 passing touchdowns this season and eight games where he has been under that number. However, he has thrown just two touchdowns in his last four games since the shoulder injury in Week 15.
The Chiefs allowed the most touchdown passes (33) in the NFL this season, but they have looked better on defense down the stretch as they have a lot of rookies who are playing and getting better with experience.
The Pick
Hurts has passed for just 275 in two playoff games. With not much offense coming from the passing game of the Eagles right now, it looks like a comfortable pick to take the under on Hurts’ touchdown passes.
The Eagles also have a league-high 32 rushing touchdowns this year, so they really do have a preference to run in the red zone anyway instead of passing.
NFL Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bet365
Isiah Pacheco (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
This is a matchup to hopefully exploit as run defense is the area where the Eagles have their worst rankings (16th in yards and 24th in yards per carry). If you can say this team has a weakness, here it is.
The Chiefs just have to make sure they exploit it, because Kansas City gave Mahomes 17 carries for 34 yards on the ground against the Bengals. That is a crazy low amount of rushing when you consider they were trying to win with a quarterback coming off a high-ankle sprain, but they made it work.
But in this game, the Chiefs really are facing a stronger pass rush with 70 sacks, and they do need to run enough to keep the Eagles honest. Also, last year the Chiefs rushed for 200 yards on the Eagles, who have the same defensive coordinator and scheme. The talent is better this year, but the run defense results actually got worse.
The Pick
The Chiefs can run on this team, and Isiah Pacheco is a solid rookie who runs very hard on every play. He definitely can hit his over if the Chiefs stick enough with the run, and that 200-yard game last year is just the second time the Chiefs have rushed for 200 yards in the Mahomes era.
We’re just asking for a quarter of that to go to Pacheco in a 50-yard effort to hit his over.
NFL Prop Pick: Isiah Pacheco Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-109) at BetRivers
Haason Reddick (Philadelphia Eagles)
- Over 0.5 Sacks
A first-round pick by the Cardinals in 2017, Haason Reddick is making a name for himself by doing the unthinkable. He has gone three straight seasons with at least 11 sacks for three different teams.
He bet on himself with a one-year deal in Carolina and had 11 sacks in 2021. That led to a bigger contract with the Eagles, and Reddick has been fantastic with 16 sacks in the regular season and 3.5 more in the playoffs.
The Pick
Reddick was the player who contacted Brock Purdy’s elbow to injure the throwing arm of the San Francisco quarterback in the NFC Championship Game. It was not a dirty play; just bad timing for the 49ers that ruined the game.
Let’s hope nothing like that happens to ruin the competitiveness of this Super Bowl, but Reddick absolutely can get to Mahomes fast enough for a sack in this game. Reddick led the Eagles in sacks, and their 70 sacks would be the most ever by a Super Bowl winner if they pull this one off.
NFL Prop Pick: Haason Reddick Over 0.5 Sacks (-167) at BetRivers
Jerick McKinnon (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Over 20.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs have found a good running back combo with the rookie Pacheco carrying the ball and Jerick McKinnon taking over as a receiving back. McKinnon even set an NFL record by catching a touchdown in six consecutive games this year. That had never been done before by a running back.
But in the AFC Championship Game, it was Pacheco who stepped up for the pass-happy Chiefs with five catches for 59 yards. His previous high in a game was 32 yards.
Meanwhile, McKinnon had two catches for 17 yards. He has gone over 20.5 yards in 10 games this season, so it is close to a 50/50 proposition.
The Pick
We will take the matchup that the Chiefs will look to get the ball out fast, and checking it down to the running backs could be the best way to do that given the wide receiver situation.
McKinnon is a reliable receiving back and we like his prop here more than Pacheco doing big things as a receiver for the second game in a row.
NFL Prop Pick: Jerick McKinnon Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)
- Under 5.5 Receptions
The Eagles have 10 games this season where DeVonta Smith had over 5.5 receptions and nine games where he was under 5.5 receptions. He has been on streaks lately. He had a four-game streak where he was under the mark, followed by a four-game streak where he was over before he had just two catches against the 49ers.
Jalen Hurts has only completed 31 passes this postseason as the team has been up big early and not relied on the pass. That script should change in this game, but do not expect a pass-happy game like the Eagles had last year against the Chiefs when Hurts had career-highs in attempts, completions, and passing yards.
Smith had 7 catches for 122 yards that day, but the Eagles were throwing it way more than usual, and he did not have an A.J. Brown there to share the ball with yet.
The Pick
The Chiefs have been playing better defense lately, and they are getting top corner L’Jarius Sneed back from the concussion protocol just in time for this game. He can help the young defensive backs keep the production down for Smith and Brown.
With the Eagles’ lack of consistent passing, take the under in Smith’s catches as him catching a big play is more likely than him getting involved on a lot of shorter throws.
NFL Prop Pick: DeVonta Smith Under 5.5 Receptions (-148) at Unibet
Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)
- Over 78.5 Receiving Yards
Finally, we have the player who can make the case as the greatest postseason tight end of all time as Kelce now has more catches, yards, and touchdowns in the playoffs than anyone not named Jerry Rice.
Kelce has gone over 75 receiving yards in eight straight playoff games, the longest streak in history by two games now.
But Kelce will have to deal with a defense that held him to 23 yards last year, tied for his lowest total since the 2018 AFC Championship Game against the Patriots. Kelce was a decoy while Tyreek Hill ate up the Eagles that day, but Hill is now gone.
The other wide receivers have some injury questions with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney leaving the last game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is not a great matchup for these Philadelphia corners.
The Pick
For the Chiefs to succeed in this game, Kelce is going to have to be dominant, which he can do as the main weapon as this 2022 season has proved. Kelce has 10 games this year with over 80 receiving yards.
He is easily the best tight end the Eagles have faced this year. George Kittle looked ready for more yards against this defense last time out in the NFC Championship Game, but the 49ers literally did not have a quarterback capable of throwing the ball.
Trust Mahomes and Kelce to go to work in this matchup and give their team a chance to win the Super Bowl.
NFL Prop Pick: Travis Kelce Over 78.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
