Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 4 Picks for Brady’s Possible Last Encounter With Mahomes

Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers Green Bay Packers
Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers calls a play against the Green Bay Packers. Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP.

This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup is a good one. It’ll be the Kansas City Chiefs going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game that many believe could be a potential Super Bowl matchup.

Who will take home the regular season win? Let’s see what the NFL odds tell us at the top sportsbooks!


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, October 2, 2022 – 08:20 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium


The Chiefs and Buccaneers are both 2-1 with losses last week. The Buccaneers lost to the Packers, 14-12, after failing to convert on a two-point conversion with just seconds remaining.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs lost to an underwhelming Colts team, 20-17. The Chiefs have a lot of things to correct on the offensive end after putting up just 17 points.

When the Buccaneers Have The Ball

Tampa Bay will be the home team in Sunday’s matchup. They’ve scored 17 points per game and averaged 310.3 yards per game through the season’s first three weeks.

Under center, Brady has averaged a touchdown per game in the air and has one interception on the season. He’s had to deal with many of his playmakers being out due to injuries and suspensions.

Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones will likely play this week. That will help Brady and the offense start to click.

So far, the Bucs haven’t been all that impressive on the offensive end. The offensive line isn’t holding up, and the run game is weak, with Leonard Fournette leading the way.

Going Against the Chiefs’ Defense

The Chiefs haven’t looked incredible defensively anyway. The defense has allowed 340.3 yards per game while allowing over 250 yards in the passing game. The coverage and pass rush has performed better than the run game, despite many teams not testing Kansas City on the ground.

Unfortunately, the Buccaneers will also be stubborn and likely won’t commit to the run.

When the Chiefs Have the Ball

The Chiefs are averaging over 29 points per game this season. Still, the offense has gained just 378.7 yards per game. You’d think the yards gained would be higher when comparing the number of points per game.

Anyway, the Chiefs are getting a lot of good play out of Patrick Mahomes and his wideouts. Mahomes has 8 touchdowns and just one interception. He’s also found his favorite target, Travis Kelce, 17 times for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns.

The Chiefs aren’t going to run the ball all that much, either. However, the offensive line has been opening up holes. That’s helped the Chiefs average 93 yards per game on the ground.

Going Against the Buccaneers’ Defense

The Bucs have allowed just 79.3 yards per game on the ground and have shown off an elite secondary that has allowed under 230 yards in the air.

Tampa Bay has been much more disciplined on the defensive end this season, allowing just 9 points per game. The Bucs haven’t missed many tackles, either.

Game Prediction

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have simply played better defense to start the season. But the offense has struggled, which just 17 points per game. The offense should be better if the Bucs can return Evans, Godwin, and Jones.

Meanwhile, despite last week’s performance, the Chiefs have had a lot of success offensively. However, Mahomes won’t have it easy trying to throw against one of the best secondaries in the league.

The Chiefs are also awaiting Harrison Butker. The kicker wasn’t available last week and forced the Chiefs to unusually go for it on fourth down and refrain from kicking extra points.

We’ll have to see if Butker will return next week. If he’s not out there, the Chiefs will be playing with fire again. This time, against the Buccaneers, it’ll be harder to execute. And then it’ll also be more challenging to overcome mistakes.

Also, a hurricane will be around the Tampa Bay area. Keep that in mind before making your NFL picks for this game. We don’t know if this game will be played in Tampa Bay or if it’ll be somewhere else.

Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: Best Bet

If the Buccaneers are healthy heading into Week 4 offensively, I will look at the Bucs to pull out a win at home. The Chiefs are still the better offense, but the Tampa Bay secondary has played so well.

It’s never a bad idea to take the home underdog on Sunday Night.

NFL Pick: Buccaneers +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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