Game 4 Golden Knights vs. Stars Computer Pick: Win or Go Home For Dallas Stars

Thomas Harley Dallas Stars Vegas Golden Knights
Thomas Harley #55 of the Dallas Stars is pursued by William Carrier #28 of the Vegas Golden Knights during Game Three of the Western Conference Final of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Steph Chambers/Getty Images/AFP

Thursday’s Top AI Pick

  • Golden Knights-Stars Under 5.5 (-115) at BetMGM

The Dallas Stars went from going 3-0 against the Vegas Golden Knights during the regular season to now going 0-3 when it matters most as they find themselves facing elimination for the rest of this series, having lost the first three games.

Can the Stars finally break the winless streak or will the Golden Knights be in their second final in six seasons? Let’s find our favorite pick, courtesy of OddsTrader’s computer predictions.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars

Thursday, May 25, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

Stars “Thrashed” 4-0

No literally, the Dallas Stars were thrashed when they lost 4-0 in Game 3. The home fans threw thrash onto the ice in disappointment after the Stars went down 4-0 within the first 27 minutes, having been 3 zero down within the opening seven minutes. They even finished the period 21 seconds early because of all the thrash. Unheard of.

Captain Jamie Benn got ejected from the game for a 15-minute cross-checking penalty on Mark Stone, and goaltender Jake Oettinger was substituted after the Golden Knights’ 3rd goal. Jamie Benn will also serve a two-game suspension.

Will Dallas Start Ottinger?

At the time of writing, it is unsure if Jake Ottinger will be the starting goaltender tonight, the number one goaltender has gone 8-8 thus far this post-season, allowing 3.05 goals against with a mediocre 89% save percentage.

Although early reports are he will start in net for Game 4. Disappointingly, Ottinger posted a 0.96 goals against record when facing the Golden Knights in the regular season, but the playoffs have seen Ottinger allow 3.3 against in the opening three games of the series.

Vegas Golden Knights

  • The total has gone under in 5 of Vegas’ last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas.
  • Vegas are 6-1 in their last 7 games on the road.
  • The Golden Knights are 33-18 ATS (+14.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
  • 7 of 9 games in this series have gone under the total over the last 3 seasons (Under +4.8 Units).

Dallas Stars Key Facts

  • The Dallas Stars are 31-28 ATS (-22.3 Units) in the second half of the season.
  • Dallas is 9-3 in their last 12 games at home.
  • The Stars are 305-205 ATS (+42.1 Units) after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
  • The total has gone over in 7 of Dallas’ last 10 games.

Vegas Might Be Worth Underdog Price

The Eastern Conference final was a 4-0 sweep, and tonight could mark the first time since 1992 that both conference finals were won in four games if the Vegas Golden Knights come away with a road victory in Dallas.

Interestingly, the Stanley Cup finals that same year were also a sweep; will history be repeated?

We like the look of Vegas’s +105 betting odds to win on the moneyline, especially with the way Dallas’ goaltending and lack of goalscoring have been in this series.

Although our AI computer disagrees, we both agree the under is worth betting in this possible elimination game. Let’s not forget the Stars are also minus Jamie Benn, who has scored 78 regular season points (2nd most on the team and 4th most during the playoffs), having 11 in 16 games.

Another Low-Scoring Game on The Cards

Our computer is predicting a tight Game 4 and predicts overtime to occur with a 2-2 tie in after regulation. Two of the first three games went to overtime and we suspect the winning margin might be by one goal yet again.

The tie is a nice play here at around +300, but we are focusing on the under 5.5 total line for -115. Just one of their previous seven meetings has seen over 5.5 goals scored and that was game one of this series.

Both teams should look to keep things tight here, and with it being an elimination game, defense will come before offense for sure.

OddsTrader Predicted Score: Vegas Golden Knights 2 – Dallas Stars 2

NHL Pick: Under 5.5 (-115) at BetMGM is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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