MLB Computer Picks for May 15: Back Reds as Rare Road Favorites 

Reds vs. Rockies: Reds ML (-125) at BetMGM

Picks Summary 

  • Reds vs. Rockies: Reds ML (-125) at BetMGM
  • Brewers vs. Cardinals: Brewers ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
  • Cubs vs. Astros: Astros ML (-169) at WynnBet

The Cincinnati Reds are in the midst of a rebuild, so they are rarely going to be road favorites this season but they are, slightly, to open a series in Colorado on Monday.

Here are picks from that game and two others with game predictions from the OddsTrader computer. 

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies

Monday, May 15, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field 

The Reds started 7-15 and David Bell was the betting favorite at the various sportsbooks to be the first manager fired, but now Cincinnati is nearly at .500 and Bell is safe. He might have been anyways simply as that organization doesn’t like to pay guys not to work for the team.

Monday would be only the fifth time the Reds are road favorites this year. They were for three games at terrible Oakland and also at Pittsburgh on April 23. Cincinnati went 2-2 in those four. 

Teams Analysis

Right-hander Hunter Greene (0-3, 3.69 ERA) takes the mound for the Reds, and the game always promises to be interesting when he does because Greene likely will have double-digit pitches of 100 mph but he always doesn’t know where they are going.

This year he has allowed four homers through eight starts and 39 innings, all four hit at Great American Ball Park. Greene gave up 12 homers in his first eight starts as a rookie in 2022. Greene has been better on the road with a 2.49 ERA.  

Colorado counters with Connor Seabold (1-0, 4.56 ERA), who is only in the rotation due to injury – German Marquez not long ago was lost to Tommy John surgery. Seabold has allowed 12 runs on 28 hits (.295 average) with six walks and 17 strikeouts across 23.2 innings. Reds leadoff hitter Jonathan India is 2-for-3 career off Seabold.

The Pick

The computer forecasts Cincinnati winning 6.0-4.2.  

  • Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 
  • Rockies are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. 

MLB Pick: Reds ML (-125) at BetMGM

Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Monday, May 15, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium 

The Cardinals have the advantage of playing at home in this series opener, obviously, but the huge disadvantage of having played on Sunday night and then traveled ahead of playing again Monday.

Teams in that spot dating to last season have been a money-loser in a big way if you backed them in that Monday game. 

Teams Analysis

There will be one change for the Cardinals on the field Monday as Willson Contreras will be catching instead of at DH. Last weekend, Manager Oliver Marmol announced that Contreras would be taking a break from catching for a while even though he was signed to a big free-agent deal this past offseason. Obviously, something has changed.   

The last time Contreras started behind the plate was on May 4 for Jack Flaherty (2-4, 6.18), who pitches in this one. He was massacred for 10 runs and nine hits over 2.1 innings. It was almost as if Marmol blamed Contreras for that by not starting him at catcher since. Flaherty has an ugly 9.45 ERA this year in three home starts. 

Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (4-2, 3.32) has gone exactly six innings in three straight starts and allowed two runs or fewer in each.

The Pick

The computer projects Brewers by a score of 4.6-3.6. 

  • Brewers are 7-3 in their last 10 Monday games. 
  • Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games. 

MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook 

Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros

Monday, May 15, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

Want to know why so many teams (Oakland, Colorado to name two) are tanking these days? Because they saw somewhat recently how well it worked for both the Cubs and Astros in terms of downtrodden franchises winning a World Series.  

The Cubs are without one of their most important offensive players in second baseman and leadoff hitter Nico Hoerner as he’s on the injured list with a hamstring injury. The 26-year-old is one of the franchise cornerstones, batting .303 with 12 steals.  

Teams Analysis

Chicago starts Jameson Taillon (0-2, 6.41 ERA) on the bump Monday. The right-hander was a big free-agent signing from the Yankees this past winter and hasn’t paid dividends yet.

Taillon hasn’t lasted more than five innings in a start. Last year while with New York, Taillon allowed six runs and 10 hits over 5.2 innings against Houston his lone time facing the Astros. 

It’s ace lefty Framber Valdez (3-4, 2.38) for the home side. He comes off eight dominant innings vs. the Angels and among AL starters ranks tied for first in quality starts (seven), third in innings (53.0), sixth in ERA (2.38), and tied for sixth in strikeouts (57). The Cubs are one of five MLB teams Valdez has never faced.  

The Pick

The computer forecasts the Astros winning 3.9-3.4. 

  • Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games. 
  • Astros are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. 

MLB Pick: Astros ML (-169) at WynnBet is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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