The Philadelphia Phillies are looking to hold on in the National League for a Wild Card berth.
Can they sneak on by the San Francisco Giants, on the road, in a weekend series?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us at the top US-licensed sportsbooks!
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, September 02 – Sunday, September 04 at Oracle Park
- Game 1: Friday, September 02 – 10:15 PM EDT
- Game 2: Saturday, September 03 – 04:05 PM EDT
- Game 3: Sunday, September 04 – 04:05 PM EDT
Series Preview
The San Francisco Giants are currently 8.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. With a little over a month of baseball to play, most fans have lost hope in San Francisco this year.
But crazier things have happened. What if the Giants find a way to sweep Philadelphia and inch closer to, maybe, six games out of the Wild Card? It’s certainly possible.
However, the Phillies got a lot better after adding Bryce Harper off the injured list.
The Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres have the three National League Wild Card spots. They’re trying to hold on against the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Francisco Giants.
Any series win against a National League team in the Wild Card would be huge for the Giants. But do they have it in them?
Here’s a breakdown of the weekend series between the Phillies and Giants.
Friday’s Probables
On Friday, we’ll likely see a matchup between Kyle Gibson of the Phillies and Alex Cobb of the Giants.
Cobb has a 3.27 xFIP in the last 30 days with 24.8% of strikeouts. He’s earned over 60% of ground balls and has allowed under 20% of line drives in the last month on the mound. Cobb will allow a high amount of hard contact, but most of the time, the hard contact is on ground balls that turn into easy double-play balls.
Meanwhile, Kyle Gibson has a 3.83 xFIP with 23.4% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s improved over the last month but has still allowed 24.7% of line drives.
Gibson has also allowed a .335 wOBA to lefties in his last 71 plate appearances, but it could be much worse. Gibson has looked good lately, and if he’s able to minimize line drives, he’ll put together another solid performance in this game.
Saturday’s Probables
On Saturday, Jakob Junis will get the start for the Giants against Noah Syndergaard of the Phillies.
Junis has been surprisingly good this year, holding a 4.11 xFIP in the last 30 days. He’s also struck out 21.6% of batters faced and has walked just 4% of batters.
Righties are hitting for power against Junis while lefties are getting on base more. But ultimately, he’s done his job for the Giants this season. He wasn’t even supposed to be in the rotation this year.
On the other hand, Syndergaard has a 4.73 xFIP with just 14.1% of strikeouts in the last 30 days. He’s giving up over 30% of line drives and inducing just 37.1% of grounders.
If there’s any game that could go over the total, it’s Saturday’s game.
Sunday’s Probables
In the final game of the series, Carlos Rodon will take on Ranger Suarez. At the time of writing this, Rodon has another start before he takes the mound in this one. Before his Tuesday start, Rodon has a 3.09 xFI with 35% of strikeouts and 1.7% of walks.
Rodon has been the ace of the Giants and if the series is tied at one, Rodon could end up helping the Giants earn a series win. Rodon has struggled a bit more against lefties in the last 30 days, but if the Phillies can’t hit him, it won’t really matter.
Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez has been good, but he couldn’t hold a 7-0 lead for the Phillies in his most recent start. That’s got to sting.
Other than that, Suarez had been consistent. His walks are getting up there, but he’s also inducing close to 60% of ground balls.
The Offenses
Giants vs. Lefties and Righties
The Giants are expected to take on two righties in the first couple of games and then they’ll face a lefty in Ranger Suarez in the third game.
Against righties, the Giants have really struggled. Only LaMonte Wade has an inflated ISO number against righties. He’s a lefty with a .365 ISO. He’s also a platoon hitter and isn’t capable of hitting against lefties. Joc Pederson has a .384 wOBA, which is also a good number against righties.
At the top of the order, the Giants have struck out a whole bunch. But Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard aren’t putting up high strikeout numbers in the last 30 days. If the Giants are able to put the ball in play against those two righties, they can have success.
On the other hand, against lefties, the Giants are hitting a .219 ISO along with a wOBA of .359.
Strikeouts are still high, but the Giants have much more potential against lefties, with J.D. Davis, Evan Longoria, Thairo Estrada, and Joey Bart all slugging away consistently right now against lefties.
Phillies vs. Lefties and Righties
Against righties, the Phillies have been terrible, hitting a .123 ISO with a wOBA of .315. Only J.T. Realmuto has been consistent.
But if you give Bryce Harper some time, he’ll start hitting for power against righties eventually, along with Kyle Schwarber.
Against lefties though, they have been tremendous, hitting a .226 ISO with a wOBA of .379. However, Philadelphia will strike out at a high rate against lefties despite all that power.
The Prediction
The first game is a bit of a toss-up, but I’ve got the Giants winning the first game.
I’d take the over in the second game, and I’d back the Giants in the third game.
Although the Giants can hit lefties, they’ll also strike out a ton. That’s what Carlos Rodon will do to them. He’ll strike them out a ton.
