An independent and a service academy have infiltrated our best college football bets for Week 10, with the Liberty Flames and Navy Midshipmen hitting the road as double-digit underdogs.
Liberty Flames vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Razorback Stadium
For those of you who just want the college football pick and nothing but the college football pick, take the Liberty Flames plus the points when they travel to Fayetteville for a collision with the Arkansas Razorbacks.
For those of you wanting to learn a little more about the first-ever meeting between the Flames and Razorbacks, read on.
Common Opponent in BYU
Benefitting from a few teams dropping their Week 9 contests, Hugh Freeze and the Flames pushed their way into the two conventional polls at No. 23 after taking last Saturday off, and can really turn some heads this week with a win over an SEC team.
Liberty is just a successful 2-point conversion away from being undefeated, and already made believers out of BYU with a decisive 41-14 decision in Week 8 when the Flames were touchdown underdogs.
Arkansas enjoyed a solid all-around offensive performance last week in a 41-27 win over Auburn, churning out 520 total yards two weeks after hanging 52 points and recording a season-high 644 yards against BYU.
Who Will Play the Best Run Defense?
As mentioned, this is the first time for Liberty and Arkansas to tussle with one another, and after the Razorbacks went out as full 2-TD chalk, the best sportsbooks have reduced that by a hook to -13½. The total can be found in the 63-63½ range after opening 64½.
We know that Freeze would love to beat an SEC side outright, and it wouldn’t be a huge shock for his experienced Flames to do just that. But the Razorbacks should prevail in the end, end at least do a better job stopping Liberty’s ground game.
Arkansas wins, but the Flames cover.
NCAAF Pick: Liberty +13½ (-107) at PointsBet
Navy Midshipman vs. Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, November 5, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Nippert Stadium
Part of the College Football Playoffs a season ago, Luke Fickell and the Cincinnati Bearcats missed their last chance to at least return to a New Year’s Six bowl game this year when they dropped a tough one to UCF in the closing minutes last week.
Cincinnati now turns its attention to a run-happy Navy Midshipmen team that isn’t having such a happy 2022 and is facing a tough closing schedule in hopes of becoming bowl eligible.
Cincy Nearly 3-TD Chalk
The NCAAF odds indicate the Bearcats will bounce right back into the win column while the struggles continue for Ken Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen. Cincinnati is favored by 19½ with a low 46½-point total.
Navy Taken to OT in Week 9 Win
The Midshipmen started strong last week at home against Temple, building an early 13-0 lead. But Navy stumbled at that point and needed overtime before eventually defeating the Owls by a 27-20 count in a game the Midshipmen were favored by two touchdowns.
Fickell wishes his Bearcats were given an overtime period last week. After rallying from a 10-0 hole against UCF, Cincinnati rallied to move ahead 21-18 with just three minutes remaining and appeared in line for a mild upset on the road.
The Knights didn’t allow that to happen, marching 75 yards down the field in seven plays to regain the lead before snuffing Cincinnati’s final drive.
‘Cats Aiming for 3rd-Straight Win Over Navy
The Midshipmen won the first three meetings between the schools, those victories taking place over a 77-year span from 1940-2017, and the Bearcats have won the last two matchups that took place in 2018 and 2021.
Cincinnati was an even bigger favorite on the college football odds last year when the schools got together in Annapolis, but the Bearcats never came close to a cover as they had to hold on for a 27-20 win to avoid the upset.
Cincy Air Attack Sinks Navy
Averaging fewer than 13 pass attempts per game – and just over 5 completions a contest – we know that Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen are going to try to control the tempo by running the football, and running the football, and running the football a little more.
Navy also does a pretty good job statistically in stopping the run. But that stat is a bit misleading since the Midshipmen have not always done a great job stopping their opponents from throwing the pigskin downfield.
That will be the key to the Bearcats’ win, but the Midshipmen will get the cover.
NCAAF Pick: Navy -19½ (-110) at PointsBet