NCAAF Week 12 Best Bets: Welcome to Blowout Season?

Two weeks remain in college football’s regular season, which means it’s desperation time. Teams on the bowl bubble need to get to the six-win mark in order to become eligible to get a bid to a postseason game. Meanwhile, top teams are running out of opportunities to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee.

Then there are the have-nots—the teams who have had disappointing seasons and are just playing out the string. The difference in motivation level means the potential for mismatches and potential blowouts.

We look at some of the double-digit betting odds out there this week to see which ones are worth a bet.

UConn Huskies vs. Army Black Knights

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Michie Stadium

This line seems to be pointed in the wrong direction. UConn has been one of the biggest surprises in football –for people who have been paying attention. The Huskies hit the six-win mark last week and enter at 6-5 on the season, riding a three-game winning streak.

UConn has beaten Boston College, Fresno, FIU and Liberty and is clearly not the team that went 1-11 last year. The Huskies struggled early this year. Their starting quarterback went down for the season three passes into the opening game, and a tough early schedule –Syracuse, Michigan and NC State in consecutive weeks– made it tough to gel under new coach Jim Mora. But the Huskies are the better team and face an Army team that has scored in single digits the last two weeks.

The Betting Picks

Army will attempt to control the ball and clock with a running attack, but that will also limit possessions and keep the score low. Even if the Black Knights get the home win, covering a double-digit spread will be a big ask.

NCAAF Pick: UConn +10.5 (-111) at MaximBet

Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan State Spartans

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Spartan Stadium

Here’s a classic “something/nothing to play for” mismatch. Michigan State is 5-5 and has two chances left to reach bowl eligibility. The Spartans have won two straight and three of four as they push for the postseason, and next week’s regular season finale is against Penn State, so this is Michigan State’s last, best chance to get eligible. Indiana is 3-7 and has lost seven straight, the last two by scores of 45-14 and 56-14.

The game promises to be a shootout. Michigan State gives up more passing yards than any other team in the Big Ten except for one… Indiana.

The Hoosiers rush for just 85 yards per game, so Indiana will be hard-pressed to control the clock and limit possessions, which is always key to springing an upset. So the Hoosiers will have to try to outscore the Spartans, a tough ask for a team that has topped 30 points just three times this season.

The Betting Pick

Indiana’s two blowout losses the last two weeks came against ranked foes in Ohio State and Penn State, so things shouldn’t be quite as ugly, but at this point, the Hoosiers are dispirited and ready to pack it in. Look for Michigan State to roll to a bowl bid.

NCAAF Pick: Michigan State -10.5 (-106) at FanDuel

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Saturday, November 19, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Unfortunately, a blizzard is not in the weather forecast for Saturday in Lincoln, because that’s all that’s missing from this being a stereotypical Big Ten game from back in the day. Two low-scoring, plodding teams will trade body blows all afternoon in a game that should be broadcast in grainy black and white.

Wisconsin has motivation. The Badgers are 5-5 and looking to get that sixth win to get a ticket to a bowl. Nebraska is 3-7 and has lost four in a row.

Nebraska has the weaker offense –the Huskers have managed less than 270 yards in each of the last three games– while Wisconsin’s defense has held two of the last three opponents to under 200 yards.

The Betting Pick

Look for the Badgers to choke off any production from Nebraska and get their sixth win. The question is whether Wisconsin will score enough points to cover a near two-touchdown spread. We’re guessing no.

NCAAF Pick: Nebraska +12.5 (-110) at FanDuel is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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