The top three college football teams in the country are in action this Saturday, and we’re crunching the numbers to see just where the value might be in the NCAAF odds for their games.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 12:00 PM EDT at Williams-Brice Stadium
Having pushed their way to the top of the latest AP poll, the Georgia Bulldogs head out on the road for the first time this season with a trip to South Carolina, where they will take on a Gamecocks team that is minus a couple of defensive starters.
Bulldogs Yet to Allow a Touchdown
Coming off their National Championship, Kirby Smart’s squad opened the year with a huge statement by routing then-No. 11 Oregon, 49-3, and followed that up with what amounted to a walk-through practice last week in a 33-0 domination of Samford.
Stetson Bennett and the first-string Georgia offense played just the first 30 minutes against Samford in running up a 30-0 halftime lead, and even the second and third-team defenders were too much for a Bulldogs team that punted nine times and accumulated just three first downs.
Gamecocks Suffer 4th-Quarter Blues at Arkansas
Shane Beamer’s bunch was right in the thick of the battle at Arkansas last week before a couple of late turnovers helped the Razorbacks put on a show in the final quarter with 24 points for a 44-30 win.
South Carolina was a 9-point underdog at the top online sportsbooks, and adding injury to insult was the Gamecocks losing edge rusher Jordan Strachan and linebacker Mo Kaba to torn ACLs that will end their seasons.
Georgia Has Won 6 of Last 7 Meetings
The Bulldogs have dominated the Gamecocks in this rivalry by winning six of the last seven to build a 53-19-2 advantage in the series.
South Carolina has covered three of the last five with 20+ point spreads like this one, but will be hard-pressed to put points up on this Georgia defense.
Lay the points as the Bulldogs rough up the Gamecocks in a 40-10 final.
NCAAF Pick: Georgia -24 (-115) at Caesars
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 04:00 PM EDT at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Coming off a close call in Austin, Nick Saban and Alabama were able to at least maintain a hold on the top ranking in the coaches poll, and the Crimson Tide should have a much easier matchup this week back home against the UL Monroe Warhawks.
Saban Hasn’t Forgotten ‘07
Of course, the Crimson Tide were supposed to have a fairly easy time with the Warhawks back in 2007, Saban’s first season in Tuscaloosa. He hasn’t forgotten the 21-14 upset UL Monroe pulled off as a 24-point underdog.
The spread is more than twice that this time with Caesars Sportsbook putting Alabama bettors 49 points in the hole to begin the game, and offering 60½ for the total.
Mistakes Almost Cost Tide at Texas
Saban was not upset with the effort he got from his team in last week’s narrow 20-19 victory over the Longhorns, but he sure wasn’t happy with all of the mental mistakes and penalties that nearly cost his team a notch in the loss column.
That same Texas team hung a 52-10 rout on UL Monroe on the Week 1 college football schedule, and with the SEC schedule looming for Alabama, the best bet here is to take the points on the Redhawks in a 47-7 Crimson Tide victory.
NCAAF Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +49 (-110) at Caesars
Toledo Rockets vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, September 17, 2022 – 7:00 PM EDT at Ohio Stadium
While the two polls disagree on the top team in their rankings, there’s no disagreement on who is No. 3 as the Ohio State Buckeyes prepare for their final non-conference game with a matchup against the Toledo Rockets.
Computer Says Lay the Points, Play the ‘Over’
If the OddsTrader computer picks are spot-on, Ohio State should have just enough to cover the -32 that is showing up at most shops, and the final score should go past a 60½-61 point total with plenty of room to spare.
Buckeyes Expected to be at Full Strength
Whether or not that computer simulation was run with the idea that wide receivers Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Julian Fleming are available and in the patterns downfield for CJ Stroud to target, we aren’t sure, but Ohio State head coach Ryan Day says he expects them both to play.
Jason Candle has his Toledo team putting up points in the early going, and the Rockets are going to be a force in the MAC this year.
Ohio State has not been able to cover yet, so the safer play here is to follow the computer with a free college football pick on the final going past the total.
NCAAF Pick: Over 61 (-110) at Caesars
