A couple of key SEC clashes on the Week 7 college football betting schedule have somehow managed to fly a bit under the radar, and we are zeroing in on the odds.
Saturday, October 15, 2022 – 07:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Inconsistency is one of the first things that should come to mind when thinking about this year’s version of the LSU and Florida football teams, and it is the inconsistent nature of the Tigers and Gators that we might find some consistency to use in our betting strategy.
LSU Off Rout at Home to Vols
While we can forgive LSU for losing to a very good Tennessee team last week, we can’t overlook how lethargic and uninterested the Tigers appeared from start to finish in a 40-13 loss they were mere field-goal underdogs.
Florida was also slow to get things going this past week against a Missouri team. The Gators were favored by 11 at home, but a couple of key interceptions negated two of their own turnovers and a relentless ground attack helped secure a 24-17 win in the end.
Gators & Tigers Collide for 51st-Straight Year
These two have been going at it since 19-hundred-&-37, and have met every season since 1972 with the rivalry going back and forth to leave the Gators with an ever-so-slim 33-32 edge over the Tigers, plus three ties.
Louisiana State has won the last three meetings –pulling off upsets as a double-digit underdog in the last two encounters– to cut into Florida’s lead, and each of the last four matchups has gone past the numbers at top online sportsbooks.
A Slow Night for the Scoreboard Operator
Like many other shops, PointsBet has tagged Florida as a 2½-point home favorite, and after the total first went out 47½, the number has been bet up to 51½.
One thing the Tigers and Gators have done consistently is sputter on offense, and the total rising is a blessing in disguise for getting down on the final coming up short.
NCAAF Pick: Under 51½ (-107) at PointsBet
Saturday, October 15, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at Kroger Field
Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach has a long history of supplying opponents with bulletin board material with biting comments, and Kentucky’s Mark Stoops just experienced the backlash of running his mouth about an SEC foe.
Neither has had much to say about the other leading up to their Bulldogs and Wildcats meeting on the Week 7 schedule, a prime-time collision that is a must-win for both sides.
‘Dogs Favored by a Touchdown
A quick check of the OddsTrader board finds the No. 16 Bulldogs drawing the chalk line as touchdown favorites on the road against No. 22 Kentucky, and playing the scoreboard means a decision on a total in the 46-47 range.
‘Cats Awaiting News on QB’s Health
Mississippi State is coming off two impressive wins at home, the first a 42-24 romp past Texas A&M two weeks ago before following that up with an easier 40-17 time against Arkansas, and the Bulldogs easily covered both games.
Kentucky has gone the opposite direction with a pair of losses the last two weeks, and the defeats coincided with the absence of quarterback Will Levis, who was injured in the 22-19 setback at Ole Miss before missing last week’s 24-14 loss to South Carolina.
Levis injured his left foot in the Ole Miss game before sitting out against the Gamecocks last Saturday while wearing a boot, and Stoops said while Levis practiced some on Monday, the grad transfer from Penn State was still considered day-to-day.
UK Needs Upset to Draw Even in Rivalry
Yet another SEC rivalry that is been an even competition with Mississippi State inching ahead 25-24 after last year’s 31-17 decision in Starkville that had plenty of gap on the scoreboard for the Bulldogs to cash as small home favorites and had just enough to get past a 47-point total.
Kentucky has won the last three battles waged in Lexington. Two of those Ws as a small home ‘dog, and the last two at Kroger Field stopped short of the totals.
Rain in Lexington’s Saturday Night Forecast
Getting an update on Kentucky’s injured quarterback is Priority 1 before making a decision, and checking on the weather in Lexington is Priority 1A since the weatherman is suggesting a 40% chance of showers beginning in the afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Mississippi State should see its win streak extended to three, while Kentucky’s skid advances to the same number, but the safest play is on another slow night for an SEC scoreboard operator.
NCAAF Pick: Under 47 (-110) at BetMGM