The New York Giants are back in our moneyline NFL picks for Week 6, but the Denver Broncos appear to have even more betting value.
Now that the college fund is full, it’s time to start saving up for that second house. We nailed another two of our three moneyline NFL picks in our Week 5 Upset Alert, cashing in with the New York Giants (+340) and Houston Texans (+290).
Sadly, the Chicago Bears (+266) couldn’t hold it together in Minnesota, losing 29-22 to the Vikings, but you can’t win ‘em all.
Or can you? Let’s see if we can complete the 3-0 underdog sweep in Week 6. The Giants are on the list again, but if we’re reading the tea leaves right, they’re not the tastiest dog on the NFL odds board.
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, October 17, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium
Yes, we’re rolling with the 2-3 Broncos in our top spot. This is the same team that fell flat in last week’s not-so-special edition of Thursday Night Football, losing 12-9 to the Indianapolis Colts in overtime. That game was so bad, Broncos fans were leaving the stadium at the end of regulation.
This might be the low point in Denver’s season – and therefore a tasty opportunity at +210 versus the 3-2 Chargers. As poorly as things have gone for head coach Nathaniel Hackett and QB Russell Wilson, they’ve got an extended layoff between games to sort things out, and for Wilson’s sore shoulder/lat to heal up.
Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has been stellar, ranking No. 4 overall on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders, while Los Angeles ranks No. 13 in that department. Most of their value comes from QB Justin Herbert, and he’s one big hit away from disaster now that his offensive line has been whittled down to the nub by injuries.
Why the Broncos?
You can see all the old-school handicapping angles coming into place here. Casual bettors overvalue offense, while at the same time ignoring what happens on the O-line. And they’ll be way too quick to bury Denver based on what they saw Thursday night.
Of course, the Broncos could still mess this up – that’s why they’re the underdogs. But they’re the best dogs in the yard at +210.
NFL Pick: Broncos ML (+210) at SBK
Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at MetLife Stadium
Forget about quarterbacks, the head coach is the most important person on the gridiron. Look at what Brian Daboll has done with the Giants. He’s taken QB Daniel Jones, who ranks No. 24 overall in passing DVOA, and he’s gotten four wins in his first five games this year – three of those via upset.
Wisely, Daboll has often removed Jones completely from the equation, snapping the ball directly to RB Saquon Barkley out of the wildcat formation. Barkley is also New York’s leading receiver with 18 catches, which helps paper over the knee injuries to Sterling Shepard (out for the season) and Kenny Golladay (questionable for Week 6).
Barkley himself is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury that he picked up during last week’s win over the Green Bay Packers, but he put in a limited practice Wednesday and is expected to be full-on for Sunday. And he’ll be facing a 3-2 Ravens team that ranks No. 14 overall in defensive DVOA, including No. 26 against the run.
Why the Giants?
There’s a very good chance Baltimore will make this NFL pick look very silly when all is said and done. But then again, QB Lamar Jackson always seems to suffer at least one brain cramp per game.
Maybe he’ll do us another solid this week.
NFL Pick: Giants ML (+215) at Caesars Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, October 16, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Arrowhead Stadium
It almost feels like we’re cheating by putting 4-1 Kansas City on our Upset Warning, but at press time, they’re the home dogs in this matchup with the 4-1 Bills coming to town. Some analytic models prefer KC to win, while others like Buffalo – and FiveThirtyEight have it split right down the middle at 50/50.
There’s little doubt the Bills are the league’s best team on paper. They excel in every facet of the game, and they’re No. 1 on the DVOA charts heading into Sunday’s contest.
But the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t far behind at No. 8, and they have one of the highest-rated passers in the league in former MVP Patrick Mahomes.
Why the Chiefs?
Granted, Josh Allen does make up for much of that difference with his running ability. Kansas City still have too much to offer to pass up at this price, and they should have PK Harrison Butker (ankle) back in the lineup this week. Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Chiefs ML (+130) at SugarHouse