It’s nice to get back on the winning foot. We shook off our first losing week of the 2022 campaign and nailed two of our three Week 9 Best Bets, correctly picking the Under for the Bills-Jets and the Chargers-Falcons. Both games ended in a 20-17 final, oddly enough.
Alas, the Carolina Panthers got hammered 42-21 by the Cincinnati Bengals, so even if you grabbed Carolina as 12.5-point road dogs (up from +7.5 when we made our NFL picks), that wasn’t nearly enough points.
Despite Carolina’s performance, our Best Bets are now 21-6 on the season, which has just passed the halfway point; temperatures are dropping across the league, giving us a golden opportunity to pound the Over on the following three matchups.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Lambeau Field
Welcome to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Temperatures are supposed to dip into the low 30s for this contest, but there isn’t any snow or rain in the forecast, just cloudy skies and mild crosswinds of around 10 mph.
Perfect conditions for the Over, in other words. Casual fans get way too cute betting the Under when it’s cold outside; in reality, temperature isn’t much of a factor when it comes to offense, unless it’s extremely cold – or extremely hot, for that matter.
Then you have the Cowboys with the Under at 5-2-1, and the Packers with the Under at 6-3. Those records are deceiving; Dallas has split their totals at one apiece in their two full games with Dak Prescott under center, and Green Bay’s 6-3 Under mark includes a 4-1 record in road games.
Cooper Rush may have done a fine job filling in for Prescott, but there’s no question the Cowboys are better off with their Pro Bowl quarterback. His 19.2% passing DVOA would be good enough for fifth overall at Football Reference had Prescott thrown the minimum 135 passes to qualify.
This Sunday, Prescott and the Cowboys get to face a Green Bay defense that ranks No. 18 overall according to DVOA. And while the Packers improve to No. 9 against the pass, they plummet to No. 31 versus the run, which should be music to the ears of RB Tony Pollard (6.2 yards per carry) and his supporters.
NFL Pick: Over 42.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Tornado Alley is notoriously cold during the winter months, although we’re not quite there yet: Sunday’s game-time forecast calls for temperatures around 40 degrees, under mostly clear and calm skies. That’s not enough to throw either of these offenses out of whack.
Kansas City has split their totals at 4-4 thus far, but this team was built to go Over. They’ve got the top-ranked offense in the league according to DVOA, with a former MVP in Patrick Mahomes at the controls. And their No. 21-ranked defense is giving up plenty of points at the other end.
This pick might have more value if the Jaguars (Under 5-4) weren’t supplying the opposition. They started the season en fuego, but have lost five of their last six, with the Under at 4-2. Apparently, QB Trevor Lawrence needs a bit more seasoning before he’s ready for Pro Bowl consideration.
Then again, the Jags’ offense still ranks No. 11 overall, while their defense is sub-standard at No. 22 in efficiency. Without any seriously bad weather to stop them, Mahomes and Lawrence could end up in a shootout this Sunday.
NFL Pick: Over 50.5 (-107) at PointsBet
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Sunday, November 13, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Soldier Field
Once again, we’re visiting one of the NFL’s most infamous cold-weather venues, and yes, it will be freezing at Soldier Field, with temperatures hitting 32 degrees at kick-off and the same 10-mph winds they’ll experience at Lambeau.
The difference with this game is how Detroit (Over 5-3) and Chicago (Over 5-4) have failed to cash in the Under this year. And the Bears have made that task even more difficult with their trade activity leading up to the November 1 deadline:
• In: WR Chase Claypool
• Out: DE Robert Quinn, LB Roquan Smith
On top of that, the Lions rank No. 12 in offense and No. 26 in defense, with QB Jared Goff climbing all the way to No. 7 on the passing DVOA charts. Bet accordingly at the best sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Over 48.5 (-105) at MaximBet