The Over was the right NFL pick for us in Week 10, and we’ve got another one lined up for Week 11 – after we take the Cleveland Browns.
All this money is starting to go to our heads. Two of our three Week 10 Best Bets made it to the pay window, cashing in the Over on the Cowboys-Packers and Lions-Bears matchups. See, we knew those totals were way too low for the slightly frozen tundras of Lambeau and Soldier Fields.
Kansas City and Jacksonville (Under 53.5 at the close) kept us from sweeping last week’s NFL picks, but that’s okay, we’re still at 23-7 heading into Week 11, and we’ve got three more tasty picks coming your way, starting with yet another golden opportunity to fleece the chalk eaters.
Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium
Okay, maybe fading the Bills (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) doesn’t have quite as much shock value now that they’ve dropped two in a row, but the betting value is still there with Cleveland (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) supplying the opposition. The Browns even have 66% consensus at OddsTrader as we go to press.
Josh Allen: Questionable for Sunday
You’ve probably heard that Buffalo QB Josh Allen (elbow) is maybe 66% healthy, which would explain his shaky play of late. Allen put in a limited practice Wednesday and is expected to suit up Sunday, although he’s officially listed as questionable at press time.
But wait, there’s more: Buffalo reportedly had to switch up Wednesday’s practice regimen after five players fell ill, four of them defensive players. That list doesn’t include LB Tremaine Edwards, who sat out with a tender groin and is also considered questionable for Sunday.
The Browns, meanwhile, are coming off an anemic 39-17 loss to the Miami Dolphins as 3-point road dogs. It wasn’t their best game of the year, but Cleveland did cover the previous two, and that Miami result should at least restore some of their betting value.
Winter in Full Swing
Let’s not forget the chaos that winter weather brings to Orchard Park. This isn’t the namby-pamby weather that prompted us to take the Over in Green Bay and Chicago. This is full-on winter, with the rain already turning to heavy snow in the days leading up to Sunday’s contest.
Chances are the grounds crew will have a few hours before kick-off to clear the field once the storm passes. But this precipitation has created even more havoc for Buffalo’s practice schedule, and the conditions at Highmark Stadium will be less than pristine no matter how much work they put into it.
The worse it gets, the more the result of this game turns into a random coin flip.
NFL Pick: Browns +8 (-110) at BetMGM
Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at NRG Stadium
Washington were very, very fortunate to beat the Philadelphia Eagles this past Monday. Now they have to make the quick turnaround and face a plucky Houston team that’s getting more than a field goal at home. It’s another classic contrarian bet, with the Texans only pulling in 14% consensus here at OddsTrader.
Wentz or Heinicke?
It appears the Commanders (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) are going to stick with back-up QB Taylor Heinicke for Week 11, even though Carson Wentz (finger) is eligible to come off injured reserve. Wentz reportedly has yet to be cleared by medical staff.
It might seem like the right call with the Commies going 3-1 SU and 3-0-1 ATS behind Heinicke, and maybe it is after Wentz melted down in three of his last four starts. But Heinicke’s minus-6.9 passing DVOA at Football Outsiders would rank No. 23 overall if he’d thrown the minimum 150 passes to qualify. That would put him ahead of Wentz (No. 29), but behind Andy Dalton and Daniel Jones.
Better to take the Texans (1-7-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) and the points. As a team, Houston may be dead last on the DVOA charts, but Washington aren’t that much better at No. 21, and again, that extra half-point above the magic number three, makes a world of difference.
NFL Pick: Texans +3.5 (-113) at SugarHouse
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Acrisure Stadium
It turns out we do have another one of those November Over picks for you. Game-time temperatures in Pittsburgh should actually warm up from the low 20s to around the freezing mark, and there’s no rain or snow in the forecast.
We’re also looking at a Steelers defense that might be without star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who needed an emergency appendectomy before last week’s game against New Orleans.
Pittsburgh won that game 20-10 (Under 39.5), but Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s No. 8-ranked offense should do better than Dalton and the Saints (No. 23). Bet accordingly.
NFL Pick: Over 41 (-107) at PointsBet