NFL Week 11 Upset Warning: Why the Cowboys Shouldn’t Be Favorites on the Road

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Green Bay Packers, while the Minnesota Vikings defeated the Buffalo Bills last week. Yet, according to the NFL odds, the Vikings are underdogs at home against the Cowboys. Yeah right.

The Dallas Cowboys lost to a Green Bay Packers team that has won one game in their last seven games.

Meanwhile, the Vikings are 8-1 and overcame so much to defeat the Bills last weekend. Multiple things had to go Minnesota’s way in the win, but the grit and determination of the ball club stood out.

Warning: The Cowboys are in trouble. 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, November 20, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at U.S. Bank Stadium

You Can’t Trust Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys have only won two of their last four games. They’re coming off a brutal loss to the Green Bay Packers, where they allowed 31 points in overtime to a team that couldn’t even throw the ball consistently.

The Offense

The Cowboys could have Zeke Elliott return to the offense, but that would only hurt the team, with Tony Pollard playing so well in his absence.

The Cowboys have scored 23.4 points per game while allowing 18.2 points per game. The offense has been average, but Dak Prescott had also been out for the earlier portion of the season.

The Defense

On defense, Dallas has allowed 349.8 yards per game. The coverage and pass rush is top-notch, but they’ve struggled to stop the run.

The Cowboys have allowed 143.1 yards per game against the run. They clearly couldn’t stop Green Bay last week. But Tennessee had no problems on Thursday Night Football against Green Bay’s rushing attack.

The Cowboys have missed a solid amount of tackles and just can’t get stops in the run game. They’ll be fine in the passing game and can get pressure on Kirk Cousins. But it also won’t be easy going up against Justin Jefferson, who almost had 200 yards receiving last week. 

Why Vikings Can Pull off Upset

Minnesota is getting disrespected. They’re 8-1 on the season and just knocked off the Buffalo Bills in a gutsy performance.

The Vikings may be lucky in that game, but they kept it close throughout it, regardless.

The Vikings have averaged 25.1 points per game but have allowed 21.2 points per game. The defense hasn’t been superior, but they’ve been consistently good, despite allowing 400.2 yards per game.

The coverage is weak for the Vikings. They’ve been underperforming. The run defense should hold Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott in this game. They’ll lose out on some drives and give the Vikings’ defense opportunities to get off the field.

Game Prediction

The Vikings are a legitimate contender. They might even be able to clinch a playoff berth in two weeks if they continue to win. That’s how good they’ve been.

Kirk Cousins has thrown for 14 touchdowns and 2,356 yards. 1,060 yards have been thrown to Justin Jefferson, who has 69 receptions and four touchdowns on the season. Jefferson has become one of the best wideouts in the game, thanks to Kirk Cousins, who continues to get him involved in big plays down the field.

Dallas has struggled to stop the run this season. That means Dalvin Cook should be able to find some open space in the running game. Once Cook starts to cook, the passing game will open up for Jefferson and the rest of the Minnesota offense.

The Vikings have one of the best offensive lines in football. The run block has been excellent this year. That adds another element to this Minnesota offense.

The Pick

Dallas’ run defense stinks. Minnesota’s run offense is terrific. Then blend in the passing game potential with Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, and it’s clear that the Vikings are simply the better team, as an underdog, at home.

Give me the Vikings at +105 to pull off an upset against America’s Team. The Vikings are getting disrespected by the best sportsbooks.

NFL Pick: Vikings (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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