Are we going to discredit the New York Giants’ 7-4 record?
The Giants will welcome the Washington Commanders to MetLife Stadium for an NFC East showdown with many playoff implications.
Yet, the Giants are underdogs against the Commanders at home. I love taking the underdog in divisional rivalry games, especially when that underdog is at home.
Yes, the Giants have lost three of their last four games. And yes, the Commanders have won four of their previous five games.
But just like the Commanders upset the Eagles, the Giants can upset the Commanders.
The NFC East has been playing some great football. Anything can happen in this division. A win for either team would give them better chances at winning an NFC Wild Card spot.
The Giants and their fans will be ready for this one. Here’s your upset warning.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Sunday, December 4, 2022 – 01:00 PM EST at MetLife Stadium
Can the New York Defense Step Up?
New York’s offense has been consistent enough. The Giants have scored at least 13 points in each of their last three losses.
However, the defense has given up at least 27 points in those three losses. The secondary has struggled. They’ve been banged up and injured there all season long. But Washington’s receiver group isn’t all that impressive.
The Commanders have averaged just 221.5 yards per game in the air. The Giants have struggled against the run, giving up 138.9 yards per game on the ground.
Brian Robinson Jr. has stepped up in a big way along with Antonio Gibson. But even with that, Washington has averaged just over 120 yards rushing behind an offensive line that doesn’t run block all that well.
The Similarities With Washington
The Giants are very similar to Washington. They’ve got a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder, looking to prove that he’s the franchise’s quarterback. Jones and Saquon Barkley need to commit to the run against the Commanders.
Although Washington has allowed 108.4 yards per game on the ground this season, that’s easily the Commanders’ weak point. Washington is much better in coverage and with the pass rush. But the Giants aren’t looking to pass all that often, earning under 200 yards per game in the air.
The Giants just need a balanced attack offensively. They need to look to just move the chains and give the defense a breather, along with a good starting field position.
Washington’s Allowed More Points Than Scored
The Commanders, like the Giants, have also allowed more points than scored this season. The Giants and Commanders are average teams with better records than their stats suggest.
Washington has played inspired football with Taylor Heinicke. But even then, the offense scored 19 against the Falcons and 23 against the Texans. The offense also added just 17 points against the Vikings and couldn’t get the passing game going against one of the worst passing defenses in the league.
Washington also scored 17 in a 17-16 win over the Colts.
The offense isn’t going to blow any opponent away. It’s the defense that’s putting in the work. But again, the defense has struggled to stop the run at a consistent rate. New York has rushed for over 150 yards per game between Jones and Barkley, and that should help the offense move the ball down the field, at home, against the Commanders.
The Betting Pick
I’m not expecting a shootout. I believe the Giants should have more success defensively than they’ve had over the last month. The run defense will improve, and the secondary won’t struggle against Heinicke as much as other quarterbacks.
The crowd should be electric and give the Commanders a little trouble on offense. Washington’s offense isn’t built to earn first downs on third and longs. The Giants can force multiple third-and-longs on defense and escape Washington’s offense.
Meanwhile, I’ve got the Giants’ run game having more success. That should help the Giants get on the board on their home field.
New York has averaged more offensive yards than Washington has this season. The Giants have also scored more points than Washington this year. Heinicke has been a great story, but the Giants will be just as inspired on their home field, looking to get the New York Giants back in the playoffs.
This game is enormous if the Giants want to achieve that milestone or goal. Back the Giants at +115 NFL odds. I’m warning you. Don’t take the Commanders as road favorites.
NFL Pick: Giants (+115) at BetMGM
