Now, this is just getting ridiculous. We went a perfect 3-0 with our Week 7 Best Bets, which leaves our NFL picks in this space at a mind-boggling 18-3; the Chicago Bears (+9) beat the New England Patriots straight-up, while the Jets-Broncos matchup went Under 39.5 and Kansas City-San Francisco went Over 48 with plenty of room to spare.
Betting rushes like this aren’t built to last. Except for the occasional moneyline bet, most of these football picks have been 56/44 coin flips at best. But that’s still more than enough edge to make a long-term profit.
Chances are those edges will get smaller between now and the postseason, as more games are played and bettors start figuring out what the heck is going on.
In the meantime, we’ve got three more tasty picks lined up on the Week 8 NFL odds, starting with a certain team from New York that you’re probably familiar with by now.
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Teams Analysis
The Giants (6-1 SU and ATS) have been our huckleberry this year. Five of their six wins have been as the underdogs, a role they’ll carry this Sunday into arguably the loudest stadium in the league when they visit the Seahawks (4-3 SU and ATS).
It’s a tough assignment, at least on paper. Seattle has moved all the way up to seventh overall (No. 3 offense, No. 19 defense) on the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders; they’re the only winning team in the NFC West heading into Week 8, which few would have predicted at the start of the season.
This is still a flawed team, though. While the “downgrade” at quarterback from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith was always overblown, the Seahawks’ defense is struggling to keep its end up, thanks in part to the loss of strong safety Jamal Adams (quad) and several other key players.
The injury list is mounting on the offensive end, too. Top wideout DK Metcalf (knee) is questionable at best after skipping Wednesday’s practice, and guards Gabe Jackson (hip) and Phil Haynes (concussion) are also iffy, taking some of the starch out of Seattle’s much-improved frontline.
The Pick
The Giants are only No. 29 (No. 26 offense, No. 30 defense) on the efficiency charts, and they have some fresh injury concerns of their own, but as they say, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
NFL Pick: Giants +3 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, October 30, 2022 – 01:00 PM EDT at U.S. Bank Stadium
Teams Analysis
After five straight weeks of Under goodness, the Cardinals flipped the script last Thursday and beat the New Orleans Saints 42-34 (Over 44). It was the first game of the year for WR DeAndre Hopkins; he led the Cards with 10 catches for 103 yards.
All well and good, but Saints QB Andy Dalton helped Arizona’s cause with a pair of pick-sixes. Hopkins was kept out of the end zone, and QB Kyler Murray had only one TD pass to WR Greg Dortch. They still have a lot to prove on that end of the ball.
Minnesota’s defense (No. 21 against both the run and pass) has been about as poor as New Orleans’ lately, and their offense looks about the same, too, relying on RB Dalvin Cook (4.8 yards per carry) to do the heavy lifting while QB Kirk Cousins tries not to screw things up too badly.
The Pick
The Vikings have split their Overs/Unders at 3-3 thus far, but they’ll be facing one of their highest totals of the year this Sunday, and they’ll be relatively healthy coming off the bye week.
Speaking of which, most of Arizona’s offensive line was forced to skip Wednesday’s practice due to assorted injuries. This could get ugly.
NFL Pick: Under 48.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Monday, October 31, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at FirstEnergy Stadium
Teams Analysis
Nothing’s uglier than AFC North football. This is a perfect Halloween matchup between two orange-clad Ohio rivals; the Bengals (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) are riding a 5-0 ATS streak after a slow start, while the Browns (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have covered just once in October.
That happened to be their last game against the Baltimore Ravens, which is good news for this week’s pick.
The Pick
Cleveland hasn’t played all that badly, ranking No. 15 overall (No. 8 offense, No. 28 defense) in DVOA. They’re getting more than a field goal on a Monday night game with light rain in the forecast.
Bet accordingly at the best sportsbooks.
NFL Pick: Browns +3.5 (-105) at PointsBet
