Top NHL Computer Picks for April 17: Goals to Be Scarce in Round 1

Ilya Sorokin Ny Islanders Philadelphia Flyers
Ilya Sorokin #30 of the New York Islanders celebrates his 4-0 shutout against the Philadelphia Flyers. Bruce Bennett/Getty Images/AFP

It’s day one of the 2022/23 NHL playoffs and we have some fantastic and exciting matchups ahead of us this week.

Taking a look at tonight’s action we are bringing you two of our favorite picks based on OddsTrader’s NHL computer picks and final score predictions.

Monday’s Top NHL Picks

  • Islanders to Win 3rd Period (+140)
  • Wild – Stars Under 5.5 (-118)

New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes

Monday, April 17, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at PNC Arena

Islanders Just About Made Playoffs

Having just about made the playoffs by holding onto 7th position in the Eastern Conference, the New York Islanders come up against a formidable Carolina Hurricanes team.

It’s apparent this team has some major problems generating goals, and despite being a pretty sound team defensively, they rely a lot on Venezia candidate goaltender Ilya Sorokin.

He allowed 2.39 goals per game this season and despite that being the 5th best ranking of players who have played 30+ games, he has managed 62 games, which is 13 more than the second-highest. Essentially, he is without a doubt ranked inside the top 3 goaltenders this season.

Carolina Still Value to Go Deep

The Carolina Hurricanes are coming into the playoffs as the 4th favorite to lift this year’s Stanley Cup at +900, and for us, we do like these odds as the Hurricanes can get much further than their odds suggest.

Ranking as one of the best teams in the league at 5 v 5 situations and allowing the second lowest amount of goals this season are just a few reasons why the Hurricanes are a superior team to the Islanders right now.

We expect the Hurricanes to come out on top over the series, but Ilya Sorokin could potentially win the Islanders one or two games.

The Pick

We are going with the numbers here, and although our computer is predicting a 2-1 win for the Islanders tonight, we are delving into the 3rd-period market as we like the +140 betting odds available for the NY Islanders to win the 3rd period.

Looking at the numbers this season, we can see that the Carolina Hurricanes are the 28th worst-ranked ATS in the 3rd period this season, while the Islanders are ranked 8th ATS in the 3rd period.

New York produced a +1 unit profit in the 3rd period this season compared to Carolinas -12.9.

OddsTrader Predicted Score: New York Islander 2 – Carolina Hurricanes 1

NHL Pick: New York Islanders to Win 3rd Period (+140) at Bet365

Minnesota Wild vs. Dallas Stars

Monday, April 17, 2023 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center

Minnesota Needs to Turn Around Away Form

The Minnesota Wild are already up against it in this series as the sportsbooks have them priced at +125 to win the series, we would even go one step further and argue they should be +140 or thereabouts.

We all know winning on the road is essential if you want to win a playoff series and this Wild team has not been in good form on their recent road trips going 2-4 over their past six games prior to the playoffs.

With that said, the Wild have won 3 of the previous 4 games at the American Airlines Center.

Dallas Should Dominate the Series

Dallas could legitimately be one of the underdogs who genuinely have a chance of going deep in this Stanley Cup run and should breeze past the Wild in this series.

Both teams are similar in that they have a solid defense, as the Stars allowed the 3rd least amount of goals against in the regular season and Minnesota the 7th least.

That said, Dallas makes up the advantage on offense, scoring 3.41 goals per game compared to Minnesota’s 2.90. We expect the Stars to win this series 4-2.

The Pick

Our computer predicts Dallas to win this opening game but more importantly for us, we see that it’s only predicting four goals to be scored in total, which is right up our alley, as we were already looking to target the under 5.5 goals at -110.

Dallas has been 21-20 to the under 5.5 goals on home ice this season, while Minnesota Wild have been 22-19 to the under 5.5 goals when playing on the road. With this being the first postseason game, we expect this to be a low-scoring affair.

OddsTrader Predicted Score: Minnesota Wild 1 – Dallas Stars 3

NHL Pick: Under 5.5 (-118) at Unibet is your sports betting command center. Read featured betting strategy compiled from a panel of leading sports betting experts.

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