Why You Should Alter Your NBA Betting Strategy

Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers elevates for a dunk against the Boston Celtics. Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images/AFP

Now that we are in March, if you already haven’t adjusted your NBA wagering, you better do so now (the top sportsbooks have) or it will cost you the rest of the regular season.

Though the NBA is marketed as this wonderful product everyone should watch, the fact is only a handful of teams are capable of winning the championship.

The rest are there to appease various groups of fans and either offer hope for the future or have the appearance of trying to win. The remainder of the teams just lose and some of them, very frequently (looking at you Orlando Magic fans).

Read More: How to Shop for the Best Lines

While this might sound like a harsh assessment of the NBA, an annual review of the standings shows this to be true. This is further brought out by the sportsbooks betting odds, like those you see here at OddsTrader. Let’s delve more into what we mean.

Sportsbooks No Longer Mess Around (and neither should you)

Ten years ago, oddsmakers would start placing a premium on NBA favorites around the first of March if not a little sooner with the season about three-quarters old. At that point, they knew who the best teams were, the worst ones and also most of the strengths and weaknesses of those in the middle.

That doesn’t make this unique to the NBA with both baseball and hockey daily sports, the exact same thing occurs.

However, the NHL has a limited reach in terms of betting and by September, college football and the NFL overtake most MLB bettors’ interest even if those are primarily weekend sports.

Read More: Best NBA Live Betting Strategies

Those setting the lines will list favorites that might have been a 6.5-point favorite in early January to -8.5 or -9 this time of year. Even the person who makes daily NBA picks, in March and April will see these adjustments and think to themselves – No way (fill in the favorite) should be this large a choice.

They will immediately find a reason or two where the oddsmakers could be wrong and next turn their attention to the underdog. This is where it gets fascinating to the better-than-average basketball bettor.

Read More: NBA Totals Betting – An Ongoing Adjustment

This person takes a deeper look at the underdog and might see reasons to back this pooch, yet, at the same time is realizing there is justification for this team to be on the receiving end of this many points. Upon completion of the detailed research, this bettor begrudgingly acknowledges the line is justified and moves on.

In the last few years, this is happening even sooner, with books posting these types of lines in early February. How can you combat this?

Altering Your Betting Methods and Understand This Happens Every Season

With these larger point spreads, it truly does level the playing field as you are asking bad teams to do good things, even against what appears to be bloated numbers. The best recourse if you are betting is to choose fewer games to wager on like more meaningful contests that affect playoff positioning, knowing the two teams have something to play for.

If you are one of those that just like to pick three or more games a day, this is the time to learn or further develop a new skill.

Read More: NBA Totals Betting – An Ongoing Adjustment

Case in point, betting totals. If you are the occasional totals bettor (less than 15% of your picks) start learning to become more skilled in this area. It might take you two-three years to acquire more knowledge and the success rate to back it up, but in the end, it can pay off.

We know some might ask, aren’t totals affected this time of year also? Not necessarily, as teams that score or allow a large volume of points are likely to keep playing that way, and clubs that struggle to score and permit fewer will do the same. Generally, you won’t have the uniqueness of the spread bet.

Read More: How to Bet on Basketball: Easy, Profitable NBA Tips

Another aspect to consider is first-half wagers. This can be used on larger favorites and if a squad is known more for faster starts or playing better in the second half versus the first two quarters, this is a potential way to beat the books at their own game.

Bottom line, betting any sport is always about making adjustments and if you do, you can make additional money or save yourself from losing it.

And remember to check back for more betting strategy at the OddsTrader blog. Happy betting!

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