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BETTING

2024 Kentucky Derby Post Position Data: Unlucky #17?

Kentucky Derby gate post position field
The field breaks from the gate at the start of the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 04, 2019 in Louisville, Kentucky. Jamie Squire/Getty Images/AFP

The 150th Kentucky Derby is finally upon us, and whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned horse racing enthusiast, one critical aspect to consider when placing your bets at top betting sites is the post-position draw.

The order in which horses line up at the starting gate directly influences the morning-line odds, making it a pivotal factor in handicapping. We’ve delved into data compiled by Churchill Downs since 1930 when the starting gate was first introduced for this iconic race.

How to Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby

  • When: Saturday, May 4, 2024
  • Broadcast Start: 02:30 PM ET
  • Post Time: 06:45 PM ET
  • Where: Churchill Downs
  • How to Watch: NBC/Peacock

Remember it’s essential to take into account your local regulations and the available markets. For example, in Colorado, Bet365 (check out our Bet365 Review) offers fixed odds betting. This means the odds you wager on before the race will directly dictate your potential payout.

It’s important to highlight that Colorado is the sole state in the US where fixed odds are accessible. In most other locations, the prevailing option is the pari-mutuel model, where payouts hinge on closing numbers. Keep this in mind as you explore your betting options.

Kentucky Derby odds oddstrader

2024 Kentucky Derby Info

  • Race: 12
  • Post Time: TBD (After 6:30 PM ET)
  • Race Status: Grade 1
  • Distance: Race 1 1/4 miles
  • Conditions: Dirt
  • Purse: $5,000,000
  • Track: Left-handed

2024 Kentucky Derby Post Position Trends

For example, the favorite, Fierceness (5-2), might have seen shorter odds if it had not drawn the 17th position, the only one that has never produced a winner. The best result for any horse starting from this position was Forty Niner in 1998, who finished second. If Fierceness wins, it will be historic.

Also, it’s worth noting that after Encino was scratched from the race last Tuesday, Epic Ride took his place but will start from the outside post, #20. The remaining horses outside Encino’s original position will move up a spot.

Another factor to consider if you’re betting on Dornotch is the rail. Despite 8 winners starting from Post 1, it’s now considered a disadvantage because “it’s harder for horses in this position to work out a clean trip while breaking from inside the 20-horse field,” as explained by the organization.

Taking this into account, out of the last 13 winners, eight of them (62%) started from post 13 or wider. This is significant since the field expanded to 20 horses in 1975, which means that some inside positions might have a more padded historical record. Also, not every Derby has featured a full field.

Remember that “In-the-money” (ITM) means that a horse finished in first, second or third.

Post 2024 Derby Starter Record Win % ITM % Last Winner Last In-the-Money
1 Dornoch 94-8-5-5 8.50% 19.10% Ferdinand (1986) Lookin At Lee (2nd, 2017)
2 Sierra Leone 94-7-5-13 7.40% 26.60% Affirmed (1978) Revolutionary (3rd, 2013)
3 Mystik Dan 94-5-8-8 5.30% 22.30% Real Quiet (1998) Two Phil's (2nd, 2023)
4 Catching Freedom 94-5-6-4 5.30% 16.00% Super Saver (2010) Danza (3rd, 2014)
5 Catalytic 94-10-8-4 10.60% 23.40% Always Dreaming (2017) Audible (3rd, 2018)
6 Just Steel 94-2-8-3 2.10% 13.80% Sea Hero (1993) Good Magic (2nd, 2018)
7 Honor Marie 93-8-6-6 8.60% 21.50% Mandaloun (2021) Mandaloun (1st, 2021)
8 Just a Touch 93-9-5-5 9.70% 20.40% Mage (2023) Mage (1st, 2023)
9 T O Password 90-4-6-8 4.40% 20.00% Riva Ridge (1972) Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, 2021)
10 Forever Young 87-9-6-10 10.30% 28.70% Giacomo (2005) Zandon (3rd, 2022)
11 Track Phantom 83-2-6-4 2.40% 14.50% Winning Colors (1988) Code of Honor (2nd, 2019)
12 West Saratoga 79-3-3-4 3.80% 12.70% Canonero II (1971) Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023)
13 Endlessly 77-5-5-7 6.50% 22.10% Nyquist (2016) Nyquist (1st, 2016)
14 Domestic Product 67-2-6-6 3.00% 20.90% Carry Back (1961) Essential Quality (3rd, 2021)
15 Grand Mo the First 62-6-2-1 9.70% 14.50% Authentic (2020) Authentic (1st, 2020)
16 Fierceness 51-4-3-3 7.80% 19.60% Animal Kingdom (2011) Commanding Curve (2nd, 2014)
17 Stronghold 44-0-1-2 0.00% 6.80% None Forty Niner (2nd, 1988)
18 Resilience 36-2-4-0 5.60% 16.70% Country House (2019) Country House (1st, 2019)
19 Society Man 31-1-1-0 3.30% 6.70% I'll Have Another (2012) I'll Have Another (1st, 2012)
20 Epic Ride 19-2-0-1 11.10% 16.70% Rich Strike (2022) Rich Strike (1st, 2022)

2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Records

Now, you may be wondering how this information translates to the unique lineup of this year’s Derby. That’s precisely why we’ve compiled the records for each of the contestants competing in this edition.

Among this year’s competitors, several horses stand out. Sierra Leone (3-1), the second favorite, boasts an impressive record of 3 wins and 1 place in four starts. Forever Young (10-1), traveling from Japan, has won all five of its starts.

Horse Last Start Last Speed In-the-Money
Dornoch 4th - Blue Grass Stakes 95 (6) 3-2-0
Sierra Leone 1st - Blue Grass Stakes 103 (4) 3-1-0
Mystik Dan 3rd - Arkansas Derby 94 (6) 2-1-1
Catching Freedom 1st - Louisiana Derby 95 (5) 3-0-1
Catalytic 2nd - Florida Derby 90 (3) 1-2-0
Just Steel 2nd - Arkanss Derby 100 (11) 2-4-1
Honor Marie 2nd Louisiana Derby 94 (5) 2-2-0
Just A Touch 2nd - Blue Grass Stakes 101 (3) 1-2-0
Encino (Scratched) 1st - Lexington 98 (4) 3-1-0
T O Password 1st - Fukuryu Stakes N/A (2) 2-0-0
Forever Young 1st - UAE Derby N/A (5) 5-0-0
Track Phantom 4th - Louisiana Derby 92 (7) 3-2-1
West Saratoga 2nd - Jeff Ruby Steaks 88 (10) 2-5-1
Endlessly 1st - Jeff Ruby Steaks 93 (6) 5-0-0
Domestic Product 1st - Tampa Bay Derby 88 (5) 2-1-0
Grand Mo The First 3rd - Florida Derby 87 (6) 2-0-4
Fierceness 1st - Florida Derby 107 (5) 3-0-1
Stronghold 1st - Santa Anita Derby N/A (6) 3-3-0
Resilience 1st - Wood Memorial 97 (6) 2-1-1
Society Man 2nd - Wood Memorial 95 (5) 1-1-1
Epic Ride 3rd - Blue Grass Stakes 96 (5) 2-2-1
Mugatu* 5th - Keeneland 103 (6) 0-1-1

Stronghold (20-1) and Epic Ride (50-1) have also demonstrated remarkable consistency, finishing in the money in every start.

As a final note, keep an eye on the weather forecast. If rain is in the forecast, horses like Mystik Dan could gain an advantage. Stay informed and enjoy the excitement of the 2024 Kentucky Derby!

Post Position Horse Trainer Jockey Morning-Line Odds
1 Dornoch Danny Gargan Luis Saez 20-1
2 Sierra Leone Chad Brown Tyler Gaffalione 3-1
3 Mystik Dan Kenny McPeek Brian Hernandez 20-1
4 Catching Freedom Brad Cox Flavien Prat 8-1
5 Catalyctic Saffie Joseph Jr. Jose Ortiz 30-1
6 Just Steel D. Wayne Lukas Keith Asmussen 20-1
7 Honor Marie Whit Beckman Ben Curtis 20-1
8 Just A Touch Brad Cox Florent Geroux 10-1
9 Encino (Scratched) Brad Cox Axel Concepcion 20-1
10 T O Password Daisuke Takayanagi Kazushi Kimura 30-1
11 Forever Young Yoshito Yahagi Ryusei Sakai 10-1
12 Track Phantom Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 20-1
13 West Saratoga Larry Demeritte Jesus Castanon 50-1
14 Endlessly Michael McCarthy Umberto Rispoli 30-1
15 Domestic Product Chad Brown Irad Ortiz, Jr. 30-1
16 Grand Mo The First Victor Barboza, Jr. Emisael Jaramillo 50-1
17 Fierceness Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 5-2
18 Stronghold Phil D’Amato Antonio Fresu 20-1
19 Resilience Bill Mott Junior Alvarado 20-1
20 Society Man Danny Gargan Frankie Dettori 50-1
21 Epic Ride John Ennis Adam Beschizza 50-1
22* Mugatu* Jeff Engler Joe Talamo 50-1* Alternate

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