The 150th Kentucky Derby is finally upon us, and whether you’re a casual bettor or a seasoned horse racing enthusiast, one critical aspect to consider when placing your bets at top betting sites is the post-position draw.
The order in which horses line up at the starting gate directly influences the morning-line odds, making it a pivotal factor in handicapping. We’ve delved into data compiled by Churchill Downs since 1930 when the starting gate was first introduced for this iconic race.
How to Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby
- When: Saturday, May 4, 2024
- Broadcast Start: 02:30 PM ET
- Post Time: 06:45 PM ET
- Where: Churchill Downs
- How to Watch: NBC/Peacock
Remember it’s essential to take into account your local regulations and the available markets. For example, in Colorado, Bet365 (check out our Bet365 Review) offers fixed odds betting. This means the odds you wager on before the race will directly dictate your potential payout.
It’s important to highlight that Colorado is the sole state in the US where fixed odds are accessible. In most other locations, the prevailing option is the pari-mutuel model, where payouts hinge on closing numbers. Keep this in mind as you explore your betting options.
2024 Kentucky Derby Info
- Race: 12
- Post Time: TBD (After 6:30 PM ET)
- Race Status: Grade 1
- Distance: Race 1 1/4 miles
- Conditions: Dirt
- Purse: $5,000,000
- Track: Left-handed
2024 Kentucky Derby Post Position Trends
For example, the favorite, Fierceness (5-2), might have seen shorter odds if it had not drawn the 17th position, the only one that has never produced a winner. The best result for any horse starting from this position was Forty Niner in 1998, who finished second. If Fierceness wins, it will be historic.
Also, it’s worth noting that after Encino was scratched from the race last Tuesday, Epic Ride took his place but will start from the outside post, #20. The remaining horses outside Encino’s original position will move up a spot.
Another factor to consider if you’re betting on Dornotch is the rail. Despite 8 winners starting from Post 1, it’s now considered a disadvantage because “it’s harder for horses in this position to work out a clean trip while breaking from inside the 20-horse field,” as explained by the organization.
Taking this into account, out of the last 13 winners, eight of them (62%) started from post 13 or wider. This is significant since the field expanded to 20 horses in 1975, which means that some inside positions might have a more padded historical record. Also, not every Derby has featured a full field.
Remember that “In-the-money” (ITM) means that a horse finished in first, second or third.
| Post | 2024 Derby Starter | Record | Win % | ITM % | Last Winner | Last In-the-Money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 94-8-5-5 | 8.50% | 19.10% | Ferdinand (1986) | Lookin At Lee (2nd, 2017) |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 94-7-5-13 | 7.40% | 26.60% | Affirmed (1978) | Revolutionary (3rd, 2013) |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 94-5-8-8 | 5.30% | 22.30% | Real Quiet (1998) | Two Phil's (2nd, 2023) |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 94-5-6-4 | 5.30% | 16.00% | Super Saver (2010) | Danza (3rd, 2014) |
| 5 | Catalytic | 94-10-8-4 | 10.60% | 23.40% | Always Dreaming (2017) | Audible (3rd, 2018) |
| 6 | Just Steel | 94-2-8-3 | 2.10% | 13.80% | Sea Hero (1993) | Good Magic (2nd, 2018) |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 93-8-6-6 | 8.60% | 21.50% | Mandaloun (2021) | Mandaloun (1st, 2021) |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 93-9-5-5 | 9.70% | 20.40% | Mage (2023) | Mage (1st, 2023) |
| 9 | T O Password | 90-4-6-8 | 4.40% | 20.00% | Riva Ridge (1972) | Hot Rod Charlie (2nd, 2021) |
| 10 | Forever Young | 87-9-6-10 | 10.30% | 28.70% | Giacomo (2005) | Zandon (3rd, 2022) |
| 11 | Track Phantom | 83-2-6-4 | 2.40% | 14.50% | Winning Colors (1988) | Code of Honor (2nd, 2019) |
| 12 | West Saratoga | 79-3-3-4 | 3.80% | 12.70% | Canonero II (1971) | Angel of Empire (3rd, 2023) |
| 13 | Endlessly | 77-5-5-7 | 6.50% | 22.10% | Nyquist (2016) | Nyquist (1st, 2016) |
| 14 | Domestic Product | 67-2-6-6 | 3.00% | 20.90% | Carry Back (1961) | Essential Quality (3rd, 2021) |
| 15 | Grand Mo the First | 62-6-2-1 | 9.70% | 14.50% | Authentic (2020) | Authentic (1st, 2020) |
| 16 | Fierceness | 51-4-3-3 | 7.80% | 19.60% | Animal Kingdom (2011) | Commanding Curve (2nd, 2014) |
| 17 | Stronghold | 44-0-1-2 | 0.00% | 6.80% | None | Forty Niner (2nd, 1988) |
| 18 | Resilience | 36-2-4-0 | 5.60% | 16.70% | Country House (2019) | Country House (1st, 2019) |
| 19 | Society Man | 31-1-1-0 | 3.30% | 6.70% | I'll Have Another (2012) | I'll Have Another (1st, 2012) |
| 20 | Epic Ride | 19-2-0-1 | 11.10% | 16.70% | Rich Strike (2022) | Rich Strike (1st, 2022) |
2024 Kentucky Derby Horse Records
Now, you may be wondering how this information translates to the unique lineup of this year’s Derby. That’s precisely why we’ve compiled the records for each of the contestants competing in this edition.
Among this year’s competitors, several horses stand out. Sierra Leone (3-1), the second favorite, boasts an impressive record of 3 wins and 1 place in four starts. Forever Young (10-1), traveling from Japan, has won all five of its starts.
| Horse | Last Start | Last Speed | In-the-Money |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dornoch | 4th - Blue Grass Stakes | 95 | (6) 3-2-0 |
| Sierra Leone | 1st - Blue Grass Stakes | 103 | (4) 3-1-0 |
| Mystik Dan | 3rd - Arkansas Derby | 94 | (6) 2-1-1 |
| Catching Freedom | 1st - Louisiana Derby | 95 | (5) 3-0-1 |
| Catalytic | 2nd - Florida Derby | 90 | (3) 1-2-0 |
| Just Steel | 2nd - Arkanss Derby | 100 | (11) 2-4-1 |
| Honor Marie | 2nd Louisiana Derby | 94 | (5) 2-2-0 |
| Just A Touch | 2nd - Blue Grass Stakes | 101 | (3) 1-2-0 |
| Encino (Scratched) | 1st - Lexington | 98 | (4) 3-1-0 |
| T O Password | 1st - Fukuryu Stakes | N/A | (2) 2-0-0 |
| Forever Young | 1st - UAE Derby | N/A | (5) 5-0-0 |
| Track Phantom | 4th - Louisiana Derby | 92 | (7) 3-2-1 |
| West Saratoga | 2nd - Jeff Ruby Steaks | 88 | (10) 2-5-1 |
| Endlessly | 1st - Jeff Ruby Steaks | 93 | (6) 5-0-0 |
| Domestic Product | 1st - Tampa Bay Derby | 88 | (5) 2-1-0 |
| Grand Mo The First | 3rd - Florida Derby | 87 | (6) 2-0-4 |
| Fierceness | 1st - Florida Derby | 107 | (5) 3-0-1 |
| Stronghold | 1st - Santa Anita Derby | N/A | (6) 3-3-0 |
| Resilience | 1st - Wood Memorial | 97 | (6) 2-1-1 |
| Society Man | 2nd - Wood Memorial | 95 | (5) 1-1-1 |
| Epic Ride | 3rd - Blue Grass Stakes | 96 | (5) 2-2-1 |
| Mugatu* | 5th - Keeneland | 103 | (6) 0-1-1 |
Stronghold (20-1) and Epic Ride (50-1) have also demonstrated remarkable consistency, finishing in the money in every start.
As a final note, keep an eye on the weather forecast. If rain is in the forecast, horses like Mystik Dan could gain an advantage. Stay informed and enjoy the excitement of the 2024 Kentucky Derby!
| Post Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Morning-Line Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | Danny Gargan | Luis Saez | 20-1 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | Chad Brown | Tyler Gaffalione | 3-1 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | Kenny McPeek | Brian Hernandez | 20-1 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | Brad Cox | Flavien Prat | 8-1 |
| 5 | Catalyctic | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Jose Ortiz | 30-1 |
| 6 | Just Steel | D. Wayne Lukas | Keith Asmussen | 20-1 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | Whit Beckman | Ben Curtis | 20-1 |
| 8 | Just A Touch | Brad Cox | Florent Geroux | 10-1 |
| 9 | Encino (Scratched) | Brad Cox | Axel Concepcion | 20-1 |
| 10 | T O Password | Daisuke Takayanagi | Kazushi Kimura | 30-1 |
| 11 | Forever Young | Yoshito Yahagi | Ryusei Sakai | 10-1 |
| 12 | Track Phantom | Steve Asmussen | Joel Rosario | 20-1 |
| 13 | West Saratoga | Larry Demeritte | Jesus Castanon | 50-1 |
| 14 | Endlessly | Michael McCarthy | Umberto Rispoli | 30-1 |
| 15 | Domestic Product | Chad Brown | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | 30-1 |
| 16 | Grand Mo The First | Victor Barboza, Jr. | Emisael Jaramillo | 50-1 |
| 17 | Fierceness | Todd Pletcher | John Velazquez | 5-2 |
| 18 | Stronghold | Phil D’Amato | Antonio Fresu | 20-1 |
| 19 | Resilience | Bill Mott | Junior Alvarado | 20-1 |
| 20 | Society Man | Danny Gargan | Frankie Dettori | 50-1 |
| 21 | Epic Ride | John Ennis | Adam Beschizza | 50-1 |
| 22* | Mugatu* | Jeff Engler | Joe Talamo | 50-1* Alternate |
