The computers at Oddstrader are having a fantastic month. Let’s see if the model can give us more winners with tonight’s slate of games in the MLB.
Picks Summary
- Astros +1.5 (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Padres -1.5 (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Over 9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Monday, July 24, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park
Our AI Model believes the Rangers will earn a 5.5-4.5 victory over the Houston Astros on the road tonight. The total is nine, but our model thinks we’ll see ten runs.
The Texas Rangers will pitch Jon Gray tonight against the Astros. Gray isn’t earning a high rate of strikeouts, but he’s holding teams to a .150 ISO and wOBA of .351 over the last month. Gray also has limited strikeouts.
Gray will allow a hefty amount of line drives and hasn’t been able to earn many swinging strikes or whiffs against lefties. However, against righties, he’s been above average in that department.
The Astros typically have Kyle Tucker batting lefty, but the rest of the lineup is right-handed. That should play out well for Gray. Houston’s lineup is still hitting a .183 ISO and wOBA of .323, which isn’t bad, but the lineup has also walked under 7% of the time against righties over the last month.
Meanwhile, the Astros will pitch Brandon Bielak. He’s been tremendous since getting called back up for the Astros. However, throughout the season, he’s been inconsistent. Bielak has allowed a .194 ISO and wOBA of .348 against 279 batters this season. In the last month, he’s limited teams to a .053 ISO and wOBA of .221.
Bielak and Gray have both pitched at a high level, but offenses are hitting about the same average. That’s why taking the Astros +1.5 at the MLB odds board makes the most sense in a game that will likely be close.
MLB Pick: Astros +1.5 (-170) at Caesars Sportsbook
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, July 24, 2023 – 09:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park
The AI Model believes the Padres will earn a two-run victory over the Pirates in tonight’s series-opening game. The total is currently at 8.5, and the model has a score of 8.8.
The Pirates will pitch Quinn Priester for tonight’s contest. Priester has only thrown against 25 batters in the big leagues, so there are a lot of unknowns with him. He’s only struck out 8% of batters and has allowed a .391 ISO and wOBA of .447 against those 25 batters. Priester has earned a high rate of ground balls against lefties, but he’s not blowing anything by any batter.
The Padres are hitting a .215 ISO and wOBA of .360 with their projected lineup over the last month against righties. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Taylor Kohlwey struggled against righties the previous month. On the other hand, Yu Darvish will get the start for the Padres. He’s struck out 27% of batters in the last month, with 34.3% of strikeouts coming against lefties.
The Pirates will have more lefties than righties in the lineup in tonight’s matchup. Darvish has held teams to a .092 ISO and wOBA of .309 over the last month, earning nearly 49% of ground balls.
The Padres should win this game comfortably.
MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, July 24, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Top online sportsbooks suggest that the Dodgers will defeat the Blue Jays, 5.9-4.7, in tonight’s ball game. The total is 9.5, but our model believes we’ll get 10.6 runs in tonight’s matchup.
It’s been an exciting year for Jose Berrios. He’ll man the mound for the Blue Jays tonight. He’s struck out 29.4% of batters over the last month. However, lefties still hit a .220 ISO and wOBA of .346 against Berrios.
The Dodgers have one of the best lineups in baseball, and they’ll take it hard on Berrios. The lefties in the lineup have hit a .204 ISO and wOBA of .357 combined. That’s where the Dodgers can attack Berrios.
Meanwhile, Michael Grove will get the start for the Dodgers. He’s also been poor against lefties, allowing a .180 ISO and wOBA of .349 to his last 57 lefties. On the season, Grove has given up a .225 ISO and wOBA of .417 to lefties. However, the Blue Jays will only have three lefties in the lineup. That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays won’t hit, but the Dodgers certainly have the better offense heading into tonight’s game.
Grove has still allowed a .362 wOBA to his last 30 righties and an ISO of .202 and wOBA of .338 to 113 righties this season.
Therefore, I still like the Over even more while the Dodgers sneak by. The AI Model agrees.
MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
