The NFL’s Week 12 schedule is filled with 10 division rivalry games, including the 1st meetings of the year between the Steelers-Bengals and Chiefs-Raiders. We also see some good value in the non-conference matchup between the Buccaneers and Colts.
We make our best bets for Week 12 below, and you can always find these bets at our top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Steelers Over 19.5 Points (+125) at Bet365
- Chiefs Under 12.5 Points in 2nd Half (-115) at Bet365
- Buccaneers-Colts Over 44 Points (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
Will Steelers Look Better After Firing Matt Canada?
Few people in sports have had fans call for them to lose their job quite like Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Matt Canada. It finally happened this week after many were ready to get off the Kenny Pickett bandwagon too following a 13-10 loss in Cleveland.
In Canada’s 45 games as offensive coordinator in Pittsburgh since 2021, his offense never reached 400 yards of offense, and he only got to 30 points twice. But guess what the last 30-point game and the only one led by Pickett was? Yep, it was last year’s 37-30 loss to the Bengals.
The Steelers also scored 23 points in Week 1 in a wild game in Cincinnati to start the 2022 season. Mike Tomlin has had a lot of success in this building in his career, but how will this first game without Canada go for the offense?
We think there is real value in betting on the Steelers to go over 19.5 points this week as the Bengals contemplate what their future looks like without Joe Burrow (wrist) for the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Can Pickett Deliver?
One negative about firing Canada is that this will put even more pressure on Pickett to prove he can do the job and just needed a better coach. You are unlikely to get a better coach in November when the team just promotes someone that’s already been on staff to the job. That is what Pittsburgh will do, but hopefully things will go better without Canada around.
It looked like there was a slight improvement in the previous 2 games against Tennessee and Green Bay as at least the Steelers scored early in the game for a change. But they again were relying on the 4th quarter to close it. When it came to playing a better defense in Cleveland last week, Pickett looked indecisive and was awful in the 4th quarter. Jaylen Warren was pretty much solely responsible for the 10 points the Steelers had in that game.
But Pickett has talent around him. Warren has looked excellent, like a little East Coast version of Austin Ekeler for the Steelers. Diontae Johnson is still a very good route runner and needs someone to get him the ball. George Pickens can make spectacular catches. Pat Freiermuth is back at tight end. The Steelers have weapons, and the run blocking looks better up front. They just need a quarterback who can deliver all over the field instead of throwing nothing but screens, checkdowns, and go routes down the sideline without good accuracy.
We’ll see if the Steelers can get more creative this week. Pickett had one of his best games against the Bengals last year when he actually led the Steelers to 20 points by halftime, an unheard-of number for this team. They ended up losing 37-30 because Joe Burrow shredded the defense, but that won’t be a problem this week.
Also, the Bengals have allowed 30 points in back-to-back games, and they have allowed 20 points in 6-of-10 games this season. Even the Titans scored 27 points on Cincinnati in Week 4.
Impact of Jake Browning Starting
With Burrow out for the year, this is a wild card with Jake Browning making his first NFL start at quarterback for the Bengals. You might wonder what Browning has to do with Pittsburgh’s scoring total, but it can speak to everything from the pace of the game to whether he will be a turnover machine that makes it easier on Pittsburgh to hit 20 points.
Remember, Pittsburgh’s season-high 26 points against Cleveland in Week 2 happened because Deshaun Watson had 2 turnovers that were returned for touchdowns by the defense. The offense didn’t score 26 points. That’d be too hard for Canada.
The truth is we just don’t know how Browning will play. He had a couple of nice throws against the Ravens off the bench last week, but starting is a whole different story. It could be a disaster, or he could look good with these receivers and really put the pressure on the Steelers to keep up with him.
Either way, we think Browning starting this game is a good thing for Pickett getting to 20 points. He doesn’t have to think about keeping pace with Burrow. He can just manage the game, and lately, the running game has looked dominant.
The Pick
For as bad as Pittsburgh has been offensively this year, it has hit 20 points in 5-of-10 games, so that’s already a coin flip. Add in the timing of catching the Bengals in Browning’s first start, the sting of losing Burrow still fresh, and the fact that it’s literally the only team Pickett has dropped 30 points on in the NFL, and we will gladly take this over.
Just remember, when the Steelers score 10 points again, the next move is to bench the quarterback. That’s why he better play the game of his life this weekend. Tomlin isn’t firing himself before that happens.
NFL Pick: Steelers Over 19.5 Points (+125) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Will the Chiefs Finally Score a Point After Halftime Again?
In one of the most shocking stats to come from the 2023 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs have been held scoreless after halftime in their last 3 games. This is the first time it’s happened in franchise history. We have not seen an NFL team do this in 4 straight games since the 2019 Dolphins.
The streak probably would have ended at 2 games against the Eagles had Travis Kelce not fumbled in the red zone in the 4th quarter, or if the receivers could hang onto any big catches. But that is the roster flaw the Chiefs willingly came into the season with, and they are dealing with those issues as they lead the league in dropped passes and have a minus-5 turnover differential.
Just imagine the headlines if the Chiefs do not snap out of it against the Raiders this week as an 8-point road favorite. Keep in mind, the Raiders have allowed 38 points in the 3 games since Josh McDaniels was fired.
While we think the Chiefs will score after halftime this week, do they score enough to beat their 2nd half total of 12.5 points? That is the game prop we are looking at.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
What Is Kansas City’s Problem?
While teams are firing their offensive coordinator, the Chiefs are expanding on a list of people responsible for the offense slipping to No. 14 in points scored. The list includes Matt Nagy replacing Eric Bieniemy at offensive coordinator, the Stone Hands Trio (Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore), and now it’s Travis Kelce by way of Taylor Swift taking his mind off football.
The fact is the 2023 Chiefs have scored 172 points before halftime and 53 points after halftime this season. If that decline of 119 points from one half to the next sounds like a lot, that’s because it is a record for a team’s first 10 games since 1970.
That’s right, the 2023 Chiefs rank No. 1 out of 1,577 teams since 1970 in scoring decline from the 1st half to the 2nd half. Oddly enough, the game in Minnesota where Kelce was injured before returning is the only game all year where the Chiefs scored more than 10 points in the 2nd half. They scored 14 on touchdowns to Rashee Rice and Kelce in the 3rd quarter (nothing in the 4th quarter).
That means the under 12.5 2nd half points bet would have been good in 9-of-10 games for the Chiefs this year. They also scored just 7 points in the 2022 finale against the Raiders in Las Vegas after taking a 24-3 lead at halftime in a 31-13 win.
Offensive Struggles
Maybe history repeats itself. The Chiefs get a big number early, sit on it, and grind away a boring 2nd half to a win where they don’t score much again after halftime. But they better score something or people are going to give up on this team as a serious title contender.
It comes down to ball security. The Chiefs turn it over too much and they have the most drops in the league with at least 5 dropped passes in every loss. That’s the main thing killing this offense. The lack of proven talent and trust at wide receiver is certainly an issue, and Kelce also appears to have lost a step at 34 years old and battling some injuries.
But even with those problems, the defense is playing great, and the Chiefs could easily be 9-1 right now if they could only catch the balls that hit them in the hands in the big moments.
Maxx Crosby and the Raiders Can Help This Cash Easily
The Raiders are playing some inspired ball after firing McDaniels, but we didn’t want to give Antonio Pierce too much credit for beating up on the Jets and Giants. But against Miami in Miami, the Raiders held the Dolphins to just 2 field goals (6 points) after halftime. That does not bode well for the Chiefs here.
We saw the Quarterback show on Netflix where Mahomes got in Crosby’s face during last year’s comeback win against the Raiders. He’ll definitely be smelling blood in the water with the way the Chiefs get called for a lot of holding penalties on the offensive line, another one of their issues this year. Crosby should have a big game.
The Raiders have held 8-of-11 opponents under 12.5 points in the 2nd half this year.
The Pick
The potential game scripts all seem to favor the under for the Chiefs in the 2nd half. They are struggling, so that makes it hard to begin with. The Raiders are playing an improved defense. The Raiders are unlikely to make this a shootout as Kansas City’s fantastic defense should have a field day with rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
So, we will predict the Chiefs to score in the 2nd half, but it will be more like 7 or 10 points this time. That’s still an improvement over nothing for 3 games, a stunning fact to say the least.
NFL Pick: Chiefs Under 12.5 2nd Half Points (-115) at Bet365
The High-Scoring Bucs-Colts Shootout?
Remember when these teams played 20 years ago, and Peyton Manning led a 21-point comeback in the final 5:00 in a 38-35 overtime win? That was fun. This game likely won’t be a classic like that, but Baker Mayfield and Gardner Minshew with little to lose on the fringes of the playoff races? It could be fun.
The Colts are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 44 points. We are looking at the over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, November 26, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
Reminder: Colts Can Score
The last time we saw the Colts, assuming anyone got up to watch them play the Patriots in Germany, they had their streak of scoring 20 points in every game this season end. But they still won 10-6.
Time to start a new streak. The Colts have done a very good job for rookie coach Shane Steichen in a season where scoring is down. The Colts lost starting quarterback Anthony Richardson to shoulder surgery, they didn’t have Jonathan Taylor for a month, and they still have been grinding away 20-point games and staying in the playoff race.
These teams looked quite different in 2021 when they last met, but that was a 38-31 game where even Carson Wentz threw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Colts. Minshew might be licking his chops at a Tampa pass defense that has fallen apart and just allowed Brock Purdy to record a perfect passer rating game (158.3) last week. This should be a big game for Michael Pittman Jr. against his father’s former team.
Tampa’s defense has largely bombed on the road this season outside of the trip to New Orleans, a familiar division rival. Look for the Colts to make good use of the bye and get Minshew and Taylor going for a solid offensive output.
The Buccaneers Can Score Too
Tampa Bay had a difficult offense last season as Tom Brady got rid of the ball so fast that it limited turnovers, but it also limited any big plays and scoring. The Buccaneers are doing better on that side of the ball this year, and they are still keeping the turnovers down. But they have some situational flaws, as they are only 15th on 3rd down and 28th in the red zone.
Mayfield had the Bucs in scoring range numerous times against San Francisco on Sunday, but the team kept coming up short and did not score anything on its final drives after cutting the deficit to 13 points.
But Mayfield might enjoy playing in Indy where the Colts have already allowed 4 opponents to score at least 29 points this year. That’s why the Colts are 26th in points allowed. The defense has held this team back more than anything, and it just released linebacker Shaquille Leonard in a cost-cutting move.
The Colts are a bit better than the scoring defense numbers suggest, because the offense has too many turnovers that put them in a bad field position. But the Buccaneers could certainly take advantage of that should it happen again.
Mike Evans has had a fantastic year with 78 yards per game and 7 touchdowns already. He should have a big game here as the Colts lack the corners to deal with him.
The Pick
These teams have played in 2 of the highest-scoring games of the year when no one expected it. That was Indy’s 39-38 loss to the Browns and Tampa’s 39-37 loss to C.J. Stroud and the Texans.
This feels like it could be a good game where both teams score over 20 points, but instead of relying on that prop, we’ll just take the regular over 44 points for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Over 44 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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