As the NBA Playoffs move forward, join us as we take a look at the latest NBA odds and find the best value on the board today.
Today’s pick is supported by both OddsTrader’s computers and our handicapping.
The Pick
- Warriors +5 (-105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors
Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 8:30 PM EDT at Chase Center
Minnesota’s Game 2 AnomalyÂ
The Timberwolves won Game 2 in blowout fashion. This makes it tempting to bet on them, but you have to be aware of recency bias, which is the psychological phenomenon whereby humans place greater emphasis on the most recent events.
Because of this bias, we are inclined to more-or-less forget that Golden State won in Minnesota in Game 1. Emphasizing Game 2’s results in our minds, we are inclined to expect Game 3 to align with them.
In order to overcome this bias, which distorts our judgment and thus our betting capacity, we have to stick to objective facts and data like a computer would.
Contrary to what recency bias leads us to think, an investigation into Game 2 must lead us to expect a different result in Game 3. In Game 2, Minnesota made over half of its wide-open three-point attempts. This three-point conversion rate is unsustainably high.
The Timberwolves are inevitably going to score fewer points today, as their three-point shooting will decline.
Golden State’s Perimeter Defenders
Minnesota’s three-point shooting decline will have dramatic effects because, this year, the Timberwolves have emphasized three-point shooting more than almost any other team. They attempt the sixth-most threes per game.
But the Timberwolves aren’t going to decline simply because it is statistically inevitable. They are also going to decline because Golden State has the tools to make them shoot poorly from deep.
Jimmy Butler is a five-time All-Defensive Team selection largely because of his perimeter defense. Jonathan Kuminga, moreover, grades highly as a perimeter defender. Metrics show that he is a very versatile defender who ably holds his own defending on an island behind the arc.
Brandin Podziemski, in defiance of pre-NBA scouting reports of him, continues this year to boast an excellent defensive rating. He is a pest for opposing ball-handlers behind the arc.
Of course, there is eight-time All-Defensive Team selection Draymond Green and others who help Golden State lock down teams that, like Minnesota, rely heavily on three-point shooting.
The Timberwolves are especially easy to guard when Rudy Gobert, who is typically useless on offense, is on the floor and when Anthony Edwards, who left Game 2 with an ankle injury that had him walking very gingerly to the locker room, is less than 100%.
Anthony Edwards’ Injury
Edwards is, all in likelihood, going to play. But he is only going to play because it is a playoff game and not because he is fully fit.
When he returned after halftime, he was visibly not himself. His ankle injury hindered his mobility. Golden State was able to score more points since the first quarter partly because Edwards’ defense was impacted by his injury.
His offense also can’t be expected to be as good as one would normally expect it to be. He has struggled to be efficient in this series, converting 42.9 percent of his field goals thus far, and now must deal with an injured ankle.
Steph Who?
True, the Warriors don’t have their superstar at all. Steph Curry’s hamstring injury continues to sideline him. But Buddy Hield has stepped up. Dating to Game 7 against Houston, Hield is 18-for-28 from behind the arc.
He is the Robin that Batman Butler needs. Golden State only scored 93 points in Game 2 largely because Butler was rather passive. Expect him to be more aggressive as a scorer in Game 3. He converted 46.2 percent of his field goals in Game 2, creating great promise for his outlook tonight.
As ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith put it, Butler’s job is to get his team a win without Steph. Expect him to take this game over tonight as he does the most to keep Golden State relevant without Steph.
The Supporting Cast
A few of Butler’s teammates have struggled in different ways so far, but role players are known for stepping up at home.
Expect Podziemski to step up. He is more than just a good defender and screen-setter. In Game 4 against Houston, he scored 26 points. He can effectively create his own shot off the dribble, as can Moses Moody, who is dangerous from deep.
Draymond Green is well-known as a playmaker who distributes the ball well to get his teammates involved. But now he is scoring well, too.
In Game 2, Jonathan Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis both proved to be effective weapons in this matchup. They combined for 33 points, using especially their athleticism against Minnesota’s defense. They are inside scoring threats that join Butler in complementing the three-point shooting prowess of Moody and especially Hield.
It is hard for any defense to guard well both in the interior and behind the arc. Golden State’s well-rounded offense will place too much stress on the Timberwolves.
The Pick
In the last postseason and this one, the Timberwolves’ worst losses have come off their best wins. These losses were Game 3 in Denver last year and Game 2 against the Lakers this season.
Returning home, Golden State has a great opportunity to reassert itself in this series. The Warriors have the inside-outside attack to blast past their 93-point total from Game 2. Remember that when the Warriors scored 99 points in Game 1, that game was on the road, and Minnesota, with its struggling offense, didn’t push them to score more.
Minnesota’s statistically inevitable decline in three-point shooting, exacerbated as it will be by Golden State’s collection of solid defenders, will, given its reliance on three-point shooting, lead it to fail to reach 100 points.
NBA Pick: Warriors +5 (-105) at Bet365Â
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