They say vice-presidential debates don’t move the needle much for the U.S. Election – except when they do.
The 2008 VP debate between Joe Biden (D) and Sarah Palin (R) drew 41.7% of American households according to Nielsen, far more than the 31.6% who tuned in to watch Barack Obama (D) and John McCain (R) during their first presidential debate. They were there to see Palin, and even though Biden was declared the easy winner, the post-debate polls saw Obama’s lead over McCain shrink from nine percentage points to four.
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Obama ended up defeating McCain by 7.2%, so if Tuesday night’s debate between Tim Walz (D) and J.D. Vance (R) has any bearing on the 2024 U.S. election, it might be a similar sugar-rush effect that will mostly wear off by November 5. Then again, with Kamala Harris (D) polling about 3-4% higher than Donald Trump (R), even a marginal move toward Trump could be enough to seal the presidency.
Which brings us to the CBS Broadcast Center in New York City, home of Tuesday’s vice-presidential debate between Walz and Vance (9:00 PM ET). There are some striking similarities between this debate and 2008; if the aftermath is the same, the political odds at betting sites will no doubt move towards Trump retaking the White House – in the short-to-medium term.
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 | 63.64% | -154 | 60.61% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 40.00% | +130 | 43.48% |
Is This 2008?
Harris and the Democratic Party sure hope so.
The groundswell of support Harris has received since taking over for Biden has made it easy to draw comparisons between herself and Obama – although Harris-Trump is a much tighter race than Obama-McCain was, so we’re not likely to see the same 365-173 landslide for the Democrats once all the electoral votes are counted.
It’s also an easy through-line to compare Walz vs. Vance and Biden vs. Palin. In each debate, the Democratic candidate is an affable Blue Wall man of a certain age, while the Republican candidate is a younger, red-meat firebrand who’s more interested in getting their message across than winning the debate itself.
This is how the polls narrowed for Obama in 2008 even after CBS News declared Biden the winner of the VP debate, 46% to 21% (with 33% calling it a draw) in a snap survey of uncommitted voters. It could certainly happen again; we’ve already seen Trump improve his 2024 election odds since his debate with Harris on September 10.
Is Vance the New Palin?
In the movies, it’s always the right-hand man – or woman – that you have to watch out for. Palin emerged as the most prominent figure in what would become known in 2009 as the Tea Party movement, a blend of libertarian ideas and right-wing populism so powerful that it became Republican Party doctrine by 2016.
That’s if you’re a MAGA Republican, of course. Trump used this approach to seize control of the GOP and weed out the more moderate McCains who have stood in his way; now Vance is emerging as the most prominent figure in the New Right, which continues to rail against mainstream Republicans and once-sacrosanct values like free trade and military aid.
These topics will get addressed at some point Tuesday night, but the big one that everyone’s talking about now is actually two topics: immigration and crime. Trump and the GOP have seamlessly brought them together to give disaffected Americans an Other to blame. The response to the “Haitians eating cats” meme has seen at least some voters in the Sun Belt swing states move back towards Trump since September 10.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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